Ian Bremmer is an American political scientist and risk analyst.
Mumbai:
In an exclusive interview with NDTV Profit on Tuesday, US political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer said the Bharatiya Janata Party will win 305 (± 10) seats in the 2024 Indian parliamentary elections.
Bremer, founder of risk and research consulting firm Eurasia Group, also said that from a global political perspective, India’s general elections are “the only thing that looks stable and consistent… (including).” There are problems with the elections scheduled for November. ”
“…macro-level geopolitical uncertainties are enormous, and the future of globalization is not going the way businesses want it to. Politics is entering the global market…wars, US-China “The relationship and the U.S. election are all a big part of that,” he said.
“All these things are not managed well and the pressures are becoming more negative. In fact, the only thing that looks politically stable and consistent is the Indian elections. Everything else is problematic. looks like.”
Asked about his predictions for India’s general election, which begins in seven stages on April 19, Bremmer said a Eurasia Group poll suggested the Bharatiya Janata Party would win between 295 and 315 seats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, which was aiming for a third consecutive term, won 282 seats (336 including the NDA alliance) in the 2014 general elections and 303 seats (including the NDA alliance) in the 2019 general elections. Including 353 seats, the party won.
The BJP is expected to achieve a trifecta this year. This is a prediction supported by poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who led the party to victory in 2014, but it is believed that the Indian Union, led by the Indian National Congress, will mount a strong challenge. Domestic political analysts believe the 2024 battle will come down to one big factor: whether the opposition can eat away at the BJP’s enthusiastic support base in the Hindi-speaking heartland.
But Bremmer stressed that numbers aren’t what he’s interested in.
“What interests me is that of all the elections in the world (including the European Union vote and possibly the UK general election), India, being the largest democracy, has had the smoothest transition of power. There is not much uncertainty about the Indian political system,” he asserted.
Bremer also praised India’s electoral process as “free, fair and transparent.”
“Modi will almost certainly win a third term on the back of a fairly strong economic performance and consistent reforms. And that, in the grand scheme of things, sends a very stabilizing message.”
On the future of India’s economy, Bremer said, “The world has seen India underperform for decades. India has an incredible population density and very strong intellectual capital… “So many American CEOs are from India, and yet India is an underperforming economy.” . ”
“Growth is accelerating now. India will probably become the world’s fourth largest economy next year and probably the third largest economy by 2028. We also see it becoming stronger in terms of clarifying friendly relations with the world. “
