The results of the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections came as a shock to many political observers. The Indian Alliance, known in the state as the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), won 30 of the 48 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won just 17 seats compared to 41 in 2019 when the BJP was in coalition with an undivided Shiv Sena. An independent candidate who won the Sangli seat later joined the MVA. In terms of seats, the MVA’s decisive victory meant it was ahead in 157 seats, while the NDA was ahead in just 128.
However, the difference in vote share was very small – the MVA got 44.92 percent and the NDA 43.54 percent – meaning the actual difference in vote totals was just 700,000 votes. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) won 1.56 million votes, or 2.75 percent of the vote. It is clear that both alliances have a strong chance in the state assembly elections.
With a lead of 157 seats in the 288-seat state assembly, the MVA seems in a comfortable position, but the state assembly elections are a different matter. This has caused major parties to rethink their strategies, making Maharashtra politics more interesting and now highly unpredictable.
Understanding the current situation of the BJP
Within a week of the results, the state BJP unit held a core group meeting. The party’s top leader in the state, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, accepted responsibility for the party’s crushing defeat. (The BJP, which won 23 seats in 2019, fell to nine, its first time in single digits since 1998.) He offered to resign, but the leadership asked him to stay on.
While there is no change in the NDA government, there has already been a shift in the alliance with the departure of Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Congress Party (MNS). Though Raj joined the NDA without demanding a seat in the Lok Sabha, he has decided to contest alone in the state assembly elections. In a meeting with party leaders, he reportedly said that the MNS would contest around 250 seats. This development could be a result of MNS activists leaving his party and returning to Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). The voting patterns in Mumbai and Thane districts also suggest that Raj’s core voters have not shifted to the NDA. Rather, in many seats, MNS voters have pledged allegiance to Uddhav Thackeray. Hence, to remain relevant in state politics, Raj has little option but to contest alone.
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The second side of this story is Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. After the Shiv Sena split, Shinde emerged as a third force under the Shiv Sena umbrella. His faction won seven Lok Sabha seats. With the BJP lacking a majority, every partner is important. Shinde’s growing status, money and power could attract MNS cadres. By leaving the NDA, Raj is trying to curb Shinde’s rise. Raj could also reduce the Marathi vote in Mumbai. With the combined Marathi, Muslim and Dalit votes, the MVA won four of the six Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai. It lost the Mumbai North West seat by just 48 votes. Uddhav’s Shiv Sena said it plans to appeal the results in court.
In Mumbai, the MVA increased its vote share in 23 assembly constituencies while the NDA took the lead in 13. The MNS is expected to perform well in 36 seats in Mumbai, 24 in Thane and a combined 12 in Pune and Nashik. So, if Raj succeeds in chipping away at the MVA’s votes in these 72 constituencies, it will be a major boost for the NDA.
In Ajit Pawar’s case, it is unclear whether he will remain with the NDA. His party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), contested four seats but won only one. His wife, Sunetra Pawar, lost a prestige battle in Baramati against her cousin Supriya Sule. Moreover, according to an article in the RSS’s journal: Organizerblamed his membership in the NDA for the BJP’s poor performance, saying it was not well received by BJP activists in Maharashtra and they were not working for the party wholeheartedly.
Maratha reserved territory activist Manoj Jarange Patil with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde after completing a protest on January 27. The matter is currently before the court and could play a key role in the state assembly elections later this year. | Photo Credit: ANI
The Lok Sabha election results also showed that Ajit Pawar had failed badly to woo NCP voters to the NDA. The other faction of the NCP led by Sharad Pawar contested 10 seats and won eight. Thus, while NCP voters still support Sharad Pawar, the core BJP voters are uneasy about allying with Ajit Pawar.
In this situation, a serious question for the BJP is whether to continue with Ajit as an alliance partner in the state assembly elections. Ajit currently has the support of 42 state assembly members, 20 of which were won by BJP candidates. If the alliance continues, the BJP will have to take these assembly members into consideration.
Shinde’s Strength
In contrast, the Sindhe faction contested 15 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, winning seven, while the BJP contested 28 seats and won only nine. This gives the Sindhe faction a better win rate than the BJP, strengthening the Shinde faction’s position within the coalition.
“Look at our success rate. We have faced tough challenges. We will be the big brother of the NDA in Maharashtra,” the faction’s spokesman Sanjay Sirsas said at Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar on June 15.
The remarks have implications for the future of BJP activists, who had only accepted Shinde as a temporary measure. But if the NDA returns to power in the state, there is a good chance that Shinde will become the chief minister again. This perception could impact the morale of BJP activists ahead of the state assembly elections. It remains to be seen whether the BJP leadership can convince them.
The BJP state committee has launched a special mission to visit every home, and state party president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said: “We will once again visit the people with our 3.5 million members and convince them to vote for the BJP.”
Onions are sorted for auction at a warehouse in Nashik on May 21. Farmer anger over falling wholesale prices led the NDA to lose several seats in the general elections. Unless the government appeases farmers, its electoral prospects are unlikely to improve. | Photo by INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP
Agricultural crisis
Apart from political maneuvering, the NDA government must urgently address the agrarian crisis, especially among onion, cotton and soya bean growers, for whom falling prices are the biggest concern. Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar acknowledged that the fall in wholesale onion prices has hit the NDA in Dhule, Nashik, Ahmednagar and Solapur districts. Similarly, cotton and soya bean have also played a role in ensuring the success of MVA in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions. Ever since the Model Code of Conduct came into force, state governments have been unable to credit the price difference between this year and last year into farmers’ accounts. Failure to do so has angered farmers and the NDA has paid the price. Appeasing farmers will be a big challenge for the NDA.
A bigger challenge for the NDA is the Maratha reservation demand. Manoj Jalanji Patil, a Maratha community leader, is seeking reservation in education and employment for his community and recognition for the Kunbi tribe. The government has enacted a law to give 10 percent reservation to the Marathas but the issue is pending in court. As for Kunbi recognition, the government has accepted the demand in principle but the Kunbi community is unhappy with the decision.
Another challenge for the NDA government will be to combat opposition allegations that the government is shifting industry from Maharashtra to Gujarat. Fadnavis and state industries minister Uday Samant have repeatedly asserted that Maharashtra will top the list of foreign investments in 2023, but have failed to convince the public at large.
The BJP’s attack on Uddhav Thackeray has become more sectarian due to its failure in the Lok Sabha. The entire BJP leadership has been trying to create a narrative that the MVA’s victory, and Uddhav Thackeray’s success in particular, was the result of Muslim unity.
On June 15, top MVA leaders held a press conference in Mumbai to thank the people of Maharashtra and announce that they would fight the state assembly elections as a coalition. This public gesture marked an important step in demonstrating the MVA’s unity at a time when many obstacles lie ahead.
MVA Challenges
A key challenge for the MVA will be to field strong candidates. Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde have deep pockets, constituency-level manpower, a dedicated voter base and a host of influential MLAs. To mount a serious challenge to them would require careful planning at all levels.
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Another challenge for the MVA is recapturing the Konkan region and the districts of Thane and Palghar. The region has 39 seats. It was previously a Shiv Sena stronghold, but the Lok Sabha election results clearly indicated that Uddhav Thackeray has lost his grip in the region.
The MVA’s prospects would be strengthened if it could bring smaller parties on board and expand its social base. For instance, former Congress leader and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana leader Raju Shetty contested independently in Buldhana and Hatkanangare constituencies, dealing a blow to the MVA. The dispersion of votes helped Shinde’s candidate win. The same is true for Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA. On Ambedkar and other smaller parties, Uddhav Thackeray had said on June 15: “If people are ready to join with sincere demands, we welcome them.”
Elections are due to be held in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir in October. There are also rumours of Bihar elections being brought forward. Of these, the Maharashtra elections will undoubtedly be the most important and closely watched as its outcome will have a major impact nationally and psychologically. The NDA, and especially the BJP, will be doing everything in their power to retain power in the state. The battle for Maharashtra is sure to be a thrilling and memorable one.
