The recent terrorist attack in Jammu has once again drawn attention to the tense nature of relations between India and Pakistan, a relationship weighed down by the Partition of India and the corroded legacy of four wars between the two countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999 respectively. Cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan since the late 1970s, first in Punjab, then Jammu and Kashmir and later across India, has become a heavy burden around the neck of the relationship.
Pakistan, on the other hand, accuses India of interfering in Balochistan, a claim that has not been proven with any credibility or conviction.This article explores the evolution of India-Pakistan relations, highlighting key events that have shaped the fragile relationship between the two neighbours over the past four decades.
Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto (1989): The late 1980s was a remarkable but fleeting period in India-Pakistan relations, marked by diplomatic negotiations between Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Though well-intentioned, their efforts were overshadowed by deep-rooted mistrust and increasing Pakistani violence in Jammu and Kashmir. This period also saw a resurgence of militancy in the Kashmir Valley and Pakistan’s support for separatists, straining bilateral dialogue and virtually halting talks over the demilitarization of the Siachen Glacier and the Sir Creek issue, both of which were considered easily achievable within the realm of settlement at the time.
The Gujral Doctrine (1998): In 1998, Prime Minister Gujral set out a bold vision for South Asia through the Gujral Doctrine, advocating non-reciprocal concessions to promote regional harmony. This approach was aimed at building trust and cooperation with Pakistan. However, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia changed with the nuclear tests conducted by both India and Pakistan. These tests made both countries de facto nuclear powers and introduced a new dimension of strategic stability and instability underpinned by the doctrine of nuclear deterrence based on the theological concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Post-nuclear Test and Kargil Conflict (1999): The 1998 nuclear tests created a precarious balance of power that was soon upended by the Kargil conflict in 1999, when Pakistani troops and militants invaded Indian territory in the Kargil region, sparking a violent conflict that ended with India recapturing territory but exposed the inherent risks of conventional warfare under the threat of nuclear weapons.
Tensions during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s government (2001-2002): Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s term oscillated between peace efforts and rising tensions. The 1999 Lahore summit, where Vajpayee famously travelled by bus to Lahore to meet Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was a symbolic highlight of the dialogue efforts. However, the Kargil conflict and the 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament in Operation Parakram, initiated by Pakistan-based militants, cut the optimistic outlook short. Operation Parakram was a massive military mobilisation that brought both countries to the brink of war. This period highlighted the fragility of peace efforts, which could easily be shattered by acts of terrorism and underlying mistrust.
Four principles of ceasefire and relative peace during Dr Manmohan Singh era (2003-2008): A ray of hope appeared again in 2003 with the signing of a formal ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). The two countries saw a relative decline in hostilities and a series of confidence-building measures, including the resumption of cricket matches and bus services between the two countries. The active back-channel dialogue that began during Vajpayee’s prime ministerial period continued vigorously during this period. However, this fragile peace was violently shattered again by the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in 2008, in which Pakistani terrorists launched a devastating attack on India’s financial capital. The attacks not only left deep scars but also highlighted the persistent threat of terrorism and the major challenges in promoting a lasting peace.
Manmohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif (2008-2014): After the Mumbai attacks, relations between the two countries remained tense and there was a significant lack of trust. Optimism returned for a time when Nawaz Sharif was elected president in 2013. The two leaders met on the sidelines of international summits and expressed a shared desire to improve relations. However, repeated ceasefire violations and the Pakistani deep state’s unwillingness to shun terrorism as an instrument of national policy prevented further progress.
Narendra Modi and the current situation (As of 2014): The assumption of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister in 2014 marked a new phase in India-Pakistan relations. Modi’s approach was a mix of initial expressions of goodwill and asymmetric responses to security challenges. His visit to Lahore to meet Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2015 was a notable move, but subsequent terrorist attacks such as those at the Pathankot Air Base and Uri military base in 2016 led to a significant hardening of India’s posture. Actions across the Line of Control in response to these attacks signal a new approach of taking political responsibility for coercive actions.
In February 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir, killed around 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, and India bombed a terrorist training camp in Balakot, Pakistan. The ensuing aerial engagement saw the capture and release of an Indian pilot, highlighting the continued risk of instability and escalation without sustained dialogue. Today, India-Pakistan relations remain mired in cycles of sporadic engagements and protracted hostility. The developments in Pulwama and Balakot demonstrated significant risks of escalation that would go unchecked without an institutional outlet. Underlying issues, centered on terrorism from India’s perspective and Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan’s perspective, continue to impede significant progress. As both countries grapple with domestic and international challenges, hope for a lasting peace remains elusive but essential. A nuanced understanding of historical context is crucial to envision a future in which the two nuclear-armed neighbors can move toward a more stable relationship and foster progress and development across the South Asian region.
Despite challenges, the pursuit of peace should remain an important goal. From a historical perspective, progress has been slow and often reversed. But understanding past efforts and failures can provide valuable insights for future diplomacy.
The conditions for dialogue and the accompanying atmosphere are essential for any progress. The responsibility for this lies entirely with Pakistan, for as long as its deep state terrorist organisations are not eliminated or at least limited, progress can only remain in the realm of hope.
Confidence-building measures, while useful, are often temporary and fragile. Regional cooperation in economic and environmental areas can serve as the basis for broader peace initiatives and foster interdependence and mutual benefits.
Ultimately, the path to stable peaceful coexistence will also require both India and Pakistan to understand the risks of escalating tensions in a nuclear environment with no institutional exit route as an ominous paradigm.
