Americans are notoriously pessimistic about the country’s post-pandemic economic outlook, with just a third saying the economy is in good shape in a CBS News poll earlier this year.
But there’s a growing disconnect between how most Americans think the economy is doing and what the leading indicators are showing — a dissonance some call a “vibe session.” In part, this disconnect reflects the limitations of economic measurements, which often fail to capture the economic realities facing millions of Americans.
Yet a new Harris/Guardian poll finds that when asked about key economic trends and data, more than half of Americans get the facts wrong about some basic financial issues.
Do you think you have an accurate picture of the state of the U.S. economy? Find out by answering these four questions.
Is America in a recession?
A) Yes
B) No
answer: The correct answer is B. As economists commonly define it, a recession is a slowdown in economic activity — a negative GDP. Because GDP is growing faster than economists expected (fueled in part by strong consumer spending), the U.S. economy is not in a recession.
What Americans BelieveSome 56% of respondents to a Harris/Guardian poll said the U.S. is currently in a recession.
How would the S&P 500 Index fare in 2024?
A) Stock prices have risen this year.
B) The stock market has fallen this year.
C) The market has not changed.
answer: The correct answer is A. The S&P 500, a measure of the overall stock market, is up 11% this year.
What Americans BelieveNearly half of respondents to a Harris/Guardian poll said the stock market has fallen this year.
How does the current unemployment rate compare to past periods?
A) The unemployment rate is currently at its lowest in 50 years.
B) The unemployment rate is approaching its highest level in 50 years.
C) Unemployment has not yet recovered from the pandemic.
answerThe correct answer is A. The unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, near a 50-year low. The current unemployment rate is also similar to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that jobs lost during the crisis have been regained.
What Americans BelieveAbout half said the unemployment rate is near its highest level in 50 years.
Is inflation increasing or decreasing?
A) Inflation is rising.
B) inflation is falling.
C) inflation has not changed.
answerThe answer is B. Inflation, which measures the rate of change in prices, has been declining since reaching a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the latest CPI, inflation is April was 3.4%.
What Americans BelieveAbout seven in 10 people say they believe inflation is rising, according to a Harris/Guardian poll.
Are prices still rising? Yes, inflation (price volatility) is declining, but prices are still trending upwards. Decreasing inflation simply means that price increases are easing from the massive increases we have experienced in 2022.
