Matt Gaetz becomes latest defector to choose primary challenger to Kevin McCarthy: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the political deskis an evening newsletter from the NBC News political team that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Bridget Bowman points out how the four House Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker now face a major challenge. . Additionally, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray details how voters are more optimistic about Donald Trump’s presidency than Joe Biden’s.

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Gates becomes McCarthy’s latest defector, drawing primary challenger

bridget bowman

The decision nearly seven months ago to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker is already having a lasting impact on Capitol Hill. Now, that movement has spilled over into the campaign trail, with several primaries looming that could help shape the future of Republicans in the House.

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz became the latest House Republican to vote to remove Mr. McCarthy to allow for a primary challenger. According to the Pensacola News Journal, former naval aviator Aaron Dimock filed to run against Gaetz on Friday, just before the deadline to enter the race.

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McCarthy’s chief agitator, Gaetz, wasted little time trying to link Dimock to the California Republican. Post to X “My intention was to have my puppet move,” McCarthy said.

Gates also said in a statement to NBC News: Aaron is no longer in Kansas City. This is Trump country. Our synonyms are USA and MAGA. ”

Mr. Dimock did not respond to requests for comment. He listed a Florida address on his campaign filing, but his identification card listed a Missouri driver’s license.

Six of the eight House Republicans who voted to expel McCarthy last year are running for re-election. And four of them are currently facing primary challengers: Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona, and Rep. Gaetz. All four seats are in Republican territory, giving the winner of the primary an advantage in the general election.

Earlier this month, an outside group connected to Mr. McCarthy’s allies aired an ad targeting Mr. Mace, Mr. Goode and Mr. Crane. Mr. Gaetz and Mr. Crane will not contest their primaries until late summer, while Mr. Mace and Mr. Good will have their primaries scheduled for mid-June.

They are not the only incumbents facing primaries this year. Mr. Gaetz himself has backed challengers seeking to defeat his Republican colleagues, including Republican Reps. Tony Gonzalez of Texas and William Timmons of South Carolina. He also endorsed former state Sen. Darren Bailey, who lost his primary race to Illinois Rep. Mike Bost last month.

It’s not uncommon for centrist lawmakers like Gonzalez to face right-wing primary challengers. But the fact that some far-right Republicans are also facing internal opposition shows that the Republican establishment is gearing up for a battle over the direction of the party.

And neither side will back down.

These are the poll numbers Biden should be most concerned about.

Written by Mark Murray

The recent 2024 polls have been all over the place. But taken together, they underscore how competitive and relatively stable the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remains, even with nearly six months left until Election Day.

CNN’s latest national poll has Trump up by 6 points (still within the margin of error). The NBC News poll had Mr. Trump leading by 2 points, while Marist had Mr. Biden leading by 3 points (both within the margin of error). And a Quinnipiac University/Pew Research Center poll showed a basically even race.

And polls in battleground states, particularly Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are similarly close.

No matter which poll you choose, the new poll highlights that voters continue to have fonder memories of the Trump era than the Biden era, perhaps more so than any of the others out there. We should be more concerned about Biden’s re-election campaign than the horse race results.

For example, a CNN poll found that 55% of Americans said President Trump’s term was a success, compared to 39% who said the same about Biden’s term.

Even more surprising, a CNN poll found that 61% think Biden’s presidency was a failure, compared to 44% who think Trump’s term was a failure.

Or take a look at last week’s NBC News national poll, which showed Trump holding a 7-point lead (46% of voters) as to which candidate had a better track record. (39% chose Mr. Biden).

Or, in a Pew poll, 42% of voters said Trump was a good or great president, compared to 28% who said the same about Biden.

Or, if you look at a CBS News poll in the battleground state of Michigan, you can see that although Biden had a 2-point lead among likely voters in the state, 62% of voters said that the state’s economy under the Trump administration was Thirty-eight percent said the situation was very or very good; So is Michigan’s economy today.

The glass-half-full news for Biden is that he has a powerful story to tell voters at a time when unemployment is at historic lows and hundreds of thousands of jobs are being created every month.

Team Biden could also remind voters about the millions of jobs lost during President Trump’s final year in office, when the coronavirus ravaged the labor market. The Biden campaign aired a television ad attacking President Trump’s handling of the economy.

Still, voters consistently say they have a positive view of Mr. Trump’s presidency and a clouded view of Mr. Biden. That’s clearer than any horse racing poll.

That’s all from the political desk for now. If you have any feedback, whether you like it or not, please email us at: politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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