Mexican voters awaited the results of an election that is groundbreaking on several fronts: It is set to be the biggest in Mexican history, one of the most violent in recent history and will likely see the first-ever election to see a woman become president.
Polls show that the two main candidates who are splitting voters almost equally are women. The front-runner is Claudia Scheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and its allies. Her closest rival is Xochitl Gálvez, a businesswoman who heads the opposition coalition government.
Sheinbaum has held double-digit leads in polls for months, but the opposition argues those figures underestimate Galvez’s true support. “There is an anti-establishment vote,” she said in an interview, and if Mexicans turn out in droves to vote on Sunday, “we will win.”
“She’s in a mindset where she has a 30-point lead,” Galvez said of Scheinbaum, “but she’s going to get the surprise of her life.”
The race illustrates the huge strides women have made in recent years in Mexican politics, a country that didn’t even have the right to vote until 1953. The two leading candidates both have significant experience: Galvez was a senator, while Sheinbaum has run the capital of one of the Western Hemisphere’s largest cities.
“For the first time in 200 years of our Republic, a woman will hold the highest honor our people can bestow: the office of President of Mexico,” Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Some 99 million voters are expected to cast their ballots for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional positions, as well as the presidential election — the largest number of votes and seats in Mexican history.
But much of the campaign centered on a man who wasn’t on the ballot but still loomed large: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Lopez Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades, running in each of the last three presidential elections before finally winning in a landslide victory in 2018.
Lopez Obrador is a widely popular but polarizing figure who has drawn praise from enthusiasts and harsh criticism from critics. His administration has doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to lift millions out of poverty, while also empowering the military and taking steps that many warn would undermine democratic institutions.
Lopez Obrador’s overwhelming power has upended the political establishment, prompting three parties from the right, center and left to form an uneasy coalition behind Galvez.
Sheinbaum appealed to voters primarily by promising to continue the work of Lopez Obrador, while Galvez positioned himself as an alternative for those unhappy with Lopez Obrador’s leadership and vowed to reverse many of Lopez Obrador’s policies.
“The way this election unfolds is a testament to the influence Lopez Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Mexican political analyst Carlos Bravo Regiador. “He is the central figure around which political identity and positions are defined.”
On Sunday, in Tepetitan, a small town in Tabasco state that is Mr. Lopez Obrador’s hometown and a known stronghold for his supporters, two voters emerged from their polling stations feeling optimistic. Teutila Gallego Salvador, 71, and Gloria Maria Rodriguez, 78, both cast their ballots for Mr. Sheinbaum.
“We love her and we want her to work like Obrador,” Rodriguez said. “We want a president like Obrador.”
In the capital, Carlos Ortiz, 57, a city hall worker, took to the streets in a wheelchair after casting his vote against the ruling party.
“I want everything to change. I don’t want the country to burn any more,” he said, recalling the dozens of local candidates who have been killed in recent months. “The president has completely lost his mind. He has no idea what he’s doing.”
Ortiz said that’s why he voted for Galvez and for Santiago Taboada Cortina, the opposition candidate for Mexico City mayor.
Fraud marred the vote in some parts of the country. In the town of Tlapanara in Puebla state, armed men broke into a school polling station and stole hundreds of ballots. “They threatened to shoot the officials if they did anything,” local election official Delia Pare Tepetla told reporters.
Queretaro Governor Mauricio Curri confirmed that at least four incidents had been reported, including two in which unidentified suspects tried to set fire to polling stations but were either thwarted or people managed to put out the fires. Ballot theft was also confirmed in other states, including Michoacan.
Whoever succeeds Lopez Obrador will face tough challenges.
Drug cartel violence continues to plague the country, forcing mass displacement and sparking one of the deadliest election campaigns in recent Mexican history. During his time in office, Lopez Obrador has focused his government’s attention on addressing the drivers of violence rather than fighting criminal groups, something he calls “hugs, not bullets.”
Galvez slammed that approach.
“Enough hugging criminals and shooting at civilians,” she joked during the campaign, saying she would withdraw the military from civilian operations to focus on fighting organized crime and strengthen the police.
Sheinbaum said his focus would remain on the social causes of violence, but he would also address the issue of impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
On the economic side, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner and is benefiting from the recent shift of manufacturing out of China. Its currency is so strong that it has been dubbed the “super peso.”
But there are simmering problems: The federal budget deficit has ballooned to about 6 percent this year and state oil company Pemex is operating with heavy debt, straining national finances.
“The fiscal risks we face today are unlike anything we’ve seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of Mexico’s Evaluation Agency, a public policy research group.
Another challenge is the sweeping new powers given to the military, whose tasks include running ports and airports, managing airlines and building a railroad through the Mayan jungle. “There’s no militarization of the country,” Mr. Sheinbaum said, suggesting he’s open to reevaluating the military’s involvement in public affairs.
In addition to domestic challenges, the fate of the next president is also intertwined with the outcome of the US presidential election: if President Biden is re-elected, continuity will be ensured, but the return of President Donald J. Trump to the White House will make predictions much harder.
Trump has pledged to round up illegal immigrants on a large scale and deport them to their home countries, a pledge that could affect millions of Mexicans living in the U.S. He has also already threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
And there’s a growing fentanyl problem: The U.S. government says drug cartels are making it in Mexico using chemicals imported from China, and Trump has threatened military action to combat the trade.
Dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of an incendiary campaign speech, could pose a daunting challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Scheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with either Trump or Biden, and that his campaign would continue to work to stem the flow of migrants.
Galvez said he would be comfortable working with both men.
Asked how she would deal with Trump, she replied: “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems to me that Trump is a fundamentally practical guy,” she said, adding, “What he wants is to solve the border and the fentanyl problem, and I think that can be done.”
James Wagner He contributed reporting from Tepetitan, Mexico.
