Just a few years ago, the scouting industry, and as a result, those of us who cover the draft, were mostly in “go” mode. The recently concluded conference tournaments were the decision-makers’ last chance to see the players in the college class. Local scouts will likely attend regional competitions starting this weekend, but scouting directors and GMs can’t get there, because the June draft typically begins at the end of the first round of postseason play.
We’ve all had to learn to adjust our internal draft clocks, as events have been moved to the All-Star break in July. Teams can and will scout pretty intensively, with Regionals, Super Regionals, and even the College World Series. Plus, there’s the Draft Combine in mid-June.
The reason I bring all of this up more than six weeks before the draft actually begins is to give some clarity on how much time is left and how much can change. Teams have yet to zero in on things like medical reports and possible contracts, so this new mock still contains a fair amount of speculation, even though the new draft top 200 list and executive research will provide some insight.
The top 10 names look to remain the same, but as Jim Callis pointed out in his mid-May mock, even if I did construct it that way for this edition (with a slight change in order from Jim’s), it’s rare for a top 10 player to make the top 10. If there are any names being talked about in the first round, I’ll point that out throughout the projections, but I think it’s still a little early to really get into the details of the permutations for each spot.
As always, there are a few guys I wanted to put in the top 30 but just couldn’t find a place for. High school right-hander Ryan Sloan from Illinois and high school outfielder Slade Caldwell from Arkansas are both getting a lot of buzz in their early teens (especially Sloan). High school right-hander Braylon Doughty from California has also come up a bit, but ranking high school pitchers is always hard, so keep an eye on him.
1. Guardian: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State University (First place)
New No. 1s Bazzana and Charlie Condon continue to compete for the top spot, with both continuing to perform like video games.
2. Reds: Charlie Condon, outfielder/third baseman, Georgia (No.2)
In many ways, the Reds are in an advantageous position to acquire a college hitter that the Guardians didn’t have, which in this case is Condon.
3. Rockies: Chase Barnes, RHP, Wake Forest University (No.5)
There’s talk that at least one of the two college pitchers ranked high in the draft so far will go higher than several college hitters who have pitched so far. Burns has been on a roll as of late, striking out 71 batters in 33 innings over his past five starts.
4. A’s: Braden Montgomery, outfielder, Texas A&M University (No.8)
With plenty of college talent still remaining, the Athletics have a few options, and Montgomery, with 26 home runs and a 1.193 OPS, remains a top contender.
5. White Sox: Jack Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (3rd place)
Sure, some are concerned about his chase percentage, but he’s a player who doesn’t whiff, batting .415/.525/.844 with 29 home runs in regionals.
6. Royals: Nick Kurtz, first baseman, Wake Forest University (4th Place)
He shook off a slow start and is posting 22 home runs and a 1.327 OPS this season. Who wouldn’t want to see him alongside Bobby Witt Jr.?
7. Cardinals: Hagen Smith, left-handed pitcher, Arkansas (No.6)
Smith currently holds the NCAA Division I record with a 17.5/9 K rate and is another collegiate pitcher who could potentially be in the group of top five collegiate hitters, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he gets selected sooner.
8. Angels: JJ Weatherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia University (7th place)
Weatherholt missed time earlier this year with a hamstring injury but has returned to action this season with a 1.132 OPS and nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts (15/29).
9. Pirates: Bryce Rayner, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Calif. (10th)
He’s a big left-handed shortstop, so he’s got Corey Seager vibes, of course, and many scouts are confident in his hitting ability compared to the next high school hitter drafted…
10. Nationals: Connor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Mississippi State (No.9)
Griffin has perhaps the best overall toolset of anyone in this entire class, and even if Reiner has the edge on the strike tool, there’s plenty of confidence that Griffin has the hitting chops to crack the top 10.
11. Tigers: Cam Caminiti, left-handed pitcher, Saguaro High School, Arizona (No.17)
For now, that appears to be the ceiling for the young left-hander out of Arizona, who received the most votes in our executives’ poll as the best high school pitcher in this class.
12. Red Sox: James Tibbs, outfielder, Florida State (No.16)
Thibs’ name has been mentioned frequently among top-10 teams because of the bat that could allow him to move quickly through the system, but his lack of a defensive profile could limit his ability a bit.
13. Giants: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No.13)
With things going this way, the Giants may look to acquire a college hitter, and King would certainly be a candidate.
14. Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No.14)
He was eligible as a sophomore, overcame his freshman struggles, whiffed significantly less this spring and even performed well with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod League last summer.
15. Mariners: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina University (No.11)
Yesavage is clearly the third-best college pitcher in this class, but his recent punctured lung leaves him in doubt. If he’s healthy and back on the mound, he could very well move up from this ranking.
16. Marlins: Walker Janek, catcher, Sam Houston State (No.23)
It won’t be easy to name the top college catcher this year, but Yanek’s name is moving closer to the top half of the first round thanks to his plus arm strength and improved approach at the plate.
17. Brewers: Vance Honeycutt, outfielder, North Carolina (No.20)
His combination of power and speed (22 home runs, 28 stolen bases) has garnered a lot of attention, but his strikeout rate (26.9%) has surprised many.
18. Rays: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No.25)
A helium-filled hitter in college, he worked his way up to lead a talented group of Volunteers hitters (.382/.447/.789 with 28 homers), and including him here reflects an overall growing interest in Moore, rather than any belief that the Rays are very interested in him.
19. Mets: Carson Benge, outfielder, Oklahoma State (No.19)
Benge could find a spot anywhere among this college hitting corps and some believe he deserves to be in the top 10.
20. Blue Jays: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No.26)
Amick has had a bit of a dip through no fault of his own (appendectomy), so a strong performance in the postseason wouldn’t be a surprise to see an up arrow next to his name again.
21. Twins: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State University (No.15)
Some prefer White to, say, someone like Thibs because he has a chance to stick to the dirt at third base, and his 75 combined home runs over three college seasons are no joke.
22. Orioles: Theo Guillen, SS/2B, Westlake High School, Texas (No.27)
He can hit and he can run, but there are questions about where he’ll play defensively.
23. Dodgers: Brody Brecht, RHP, University of Iowa (No.21)
Brecht has become much better at throwing strikes late in the game, walking just over four batters per nine innings over his last six starts and lowering his walk rate to 5.6 per nine innings on the season.
24. Braves: Caleb Lomavita, catcher, California (No.33)
His chase rate will scare some teams, but he has the power and speed to be a catch-and-throw backstop. He’s a bit of an enigma and it’s hard to place him, but he received the most votes in the executive poll as the best catcher in his class.
25. Padres: Kash Mayfield, left-handed pitcher, Elk City High School, Oklahoma (No.28)
He is one of many high school pitchers who are considered potential first-round picks, and one of many who could go higher.
26. Yankees: Jurangelo Chinche, SWP, Mississippi State University (No.31)
This isn’t just a switch-pitching novelty — Chinche will likely be exclusively right-handed at the next level, and his pitching is excellent — so don’t be surprised to see his name move up this list.
27. Phillies: Malcolm Moore, catcher, Stanford (No.24)
Teams still value his underlying stats, and he’s gotten better defensively, but it’s hard to know where to put a contract-eligible sophomore from Stanford (will a contract even be an issue?), especially when he’s only batting .255.
28. Astros: Kalen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (No.32)
He’s making a lot of contact and posted a .939 OPS at Kansas State, so he’s expected to move to third base.
29. Diamondbacks: Ryan Waldschmidt, outfielder, Kentucky (No. 39)
Helium alert! Waldschmidt is posting an impressive 1.141 OPS, 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases. His strong showing in the SEC has seen him rise rapidly up the standings.
30. Rangers: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic High School, Louisiana (12th place)
He’s still one of the best high school pitchers out there, but he’s another one that’s hard to rank.
