New Delhi, India – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73, is poised for an unprecedented third term and is likely to be re-elected with an overwhelming majority of the vote, exit polls showed on Saturday night, dealing a major blow to the opposition coalition in the largest democratic election in world history.
If the official results, due on Tuesday, June 4, bear out these polls, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not only weather widening inequality, record unemployment and rising prices without suffering, but may also fare better than it did in the last elections in 2019. No prime minister in independent India has ever won three consecutive Lok Sabha elections while enjoying growing support each time.
At least seven exit polls published by Indian media organisations projected the BJP and its allies to win between 350 and 380 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament.
The opposition Indian Alliance – a collection of more than 20 political groups hoping to topple the BJP’s Hindu-majority government – refused to dwell on the exit polls and maintained calm confidence that it would secure a majority on vote-counting day.
India’s exit polls have a spotty record and past polls have under- and overestimated parties’ vote numbers, but with a few exceptions, they have mostly accurately predicted major trends over the past two decades. Nearly one billion Indians registered to vote in the massive election, which took place in seven phases over six weeks and ended on Saturday night.
“Modi is extraordinarily popular. There’s a reason why the BJP’s entire campaign this time has been about Modi,” said Neelanjan Sarkar, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research. “Certain narratives have emerged that suggest people are unhappy with the government, but translating that into seats has always been difficult.”
BJP enters new territory
The opposition Indian Union is expected to perform well in India’s southern states, but most exit polls suggest the BJP could make a surprise advance there as well.
Some exit polls predict the BJP could win two to three seats in Kerala, the last bastion of the Indian Left and a state where Modi’s party has never won, while it could win one to three seats in Tamil Nadu, a state where it won no seats in the last election. Such victories could give the BJP a foothold in an opposition stronghold where it has struggled for decades.
The BJP and its allies are also expected to retain their seats in Karnataka, where it won 25 of the state’s 28 seats in 2019, and could be the biggest single winner in Telangana. These results mark a dramatic setback for the opposition Indian National Congress party, which leads the Indian coalition and defeated the BJP in both Karnataka and Telangana assembly elections last year.
“The vote share in the south has been surprising. The projections are for a significant increase in vote share,” said political analyst Asim Ali. “Even if the BJP does not win many seats, [as predicted in the exit polls]Their increase in vote share is a big change.”
Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win landslide victories in its stronghold states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
The opposition alliance is expected to make small gains in Bihar and Rajasthan, where the BJP won nearly all its seats in the last election, as well as in the northern states of Haryana and Punjab.
Sudha Joshi, a 76-year-old voter from Chittorgarh in Rajasthan state, kept her eyes on her smartphone, which she got last year under a welfare scheme run by the then Congress government in the state, as news anchors trumpeted the “overwhelming support” for Mr Modi on Saturday evening.
Last December, the Indian National Congress was defeated in Rajasthan and the Bharatiya Janata Party returned to power.
Mr. Joshi’s political allegiances have also shifted. Born in 1947, the year India gained independence, he says he has never missed an opportunity to vote. A traditional Congress supporter, he says he lost hope in the Nehru-Gandhi clan that controlled the party and instead found a leader in Mr. Modi.
“When Modi first ran for office in 2014, I saw a leader who would take India to international heights,” she said, rejoicing at the exit poll results. “He is a man of faith like us and a true patriot, so I am happy with his governance.”
Analysts say her views reflect broader sentiment.
“With someone like Modi – a ‘trustworthy’ person at the top – a large section of society can only imagine him as a leader today,” CPR’s Sarkar said. “The BJP’s success is due to Modi’s popularity.”
BJP national spokesman Zafar Islam said the exit polls reflected voters’ “appreciation for the BJP’s governance model, welfare schemes and Prime Minister Modi’s vision”.
“Under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, people’s lives have improved and that is why we are hopeful of this historic verdict,” he told Al Jazeera.
Will BJP rule last another five years?
Modi’s re-election campaign has been filled with fear-mongering, with him and his Bharatiya Janata Party calling Muslims “infiltrators” and “people with too many children” at election rallies and constantly portraying him as a savior of the broader Hindu public against the opposition’s plots to benefit Muslims.
With an estimated population of 200 million, India is home to the world’s third-largest Muslim community after Indonesia and Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the opposition tried to corner Modi on issues of social justice and equality, a theme that resonated with Vikrant Singh, a 21-year-old political science student.
Singh said he had travelled more than 160 kilometres (100 miles) back to his home in Pratapagarh, Uttar Pradesh, to vote against the BJP. “Tuition fees at public universities have soared and unemployment is soaring,” he said. “I am completing my postgraduate studies and there are no job prospects in sight.”
He was voting for the first time, but for Indians of his age, the past Congress government – which last ruled from 2004 to 2014 – is now a distant memory, and the future, he said, is not bright.
“The BJP has been more focused on winning elections than governing,” he said. “They are aiming for cultural hegemony and want to win the hearts and minds of young people by controlling the media.”
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, the BJP is expected to win at least 65 of the 80 seats with its allies, up from 62 in the last election. After the exit polls were released, Prime Minister Modi said the opposition coalition “had failed to resonate with voters.”
“Throughout the election campaign, they have only strengthened their expertise in one thing – bashing Modi. Such regressive politics is rejected by the people,” he wrote on X.
If the election results bear out the exit polls, Sircar said India would spend the next five years under “a centralised coalition government of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah,” who is seen as the prime minister’s deputy.
“This BJP only knows how to run a government where power is totally concentrated at the top.”
