Concerns continue rapidly The significance of China’s mineral stockpiling. In addition to the Chinese government’s statements and military activities, Mineral stockpiles This is one sign that China may be preparing a military invasion of Taiwan. China’s National Food Strategic Reserve Administration (NFSRA) was formerly known as the State Reserve Bureau (SRB). to manage China’s mineral reserves include mineral They range from gallium and germanium to tantalum and tungsten.
China has not been extremely secretive about its stockpiles of “non-strategic” minerals, such as aluminum, which have large domestic production. Secrecy With stockpiles of “strategic” minerals like copper, where domestic demand exceeds domestic production, how can the stockpiles be monitored given China’s general secrecy?
Broadly speaking, there are five stockpiling indicators: direct stockpiling, government tenders, leaked information, industry reports, and evidence of other market indicators such as a surge in imports.
Direct stockpiles, as the name suggests, are the easiest to track. For example, in 2012-2013, the SRB publicly China purchased 400,000 tons of aluminum and 145,000 tons of zinc. Such direct stockpiling is most evident when China wants to send a price signal to the market, or in the case of non-strategic minerals. zinc.
The second indicator of stockpiling is when the NFSRA announces tenders. Before embarking on stockpiling purchases of non-strategic minerals, the NFSRA occasionally announces public tenders, sending a price signal and contributing to an increase in the price of the minerals. For example, in 2012, the SRB announced a public tender. Published The NFSRA is bidding to buy 160,000 tonnes of aluminium from a Chinese smelter. Not proceed Purchase minerals for your stockpile.
Third, Chinese industry and government sources information Discussions about stockpiling are underway between the NFSRA and Chinese producers. For example, Reuters article It was reported in May 2024 that the NFSRA was considering purchasing 15,000 tonnes of cobalt, but the report was based on information from an industry source.Closed RoomThe “tender” involves inviting carefully selected companies to submit bids. State-run China Metals Survey Company Antike, which also advises NFSRA on the stockpile, said: Disclose It also accumulates information.
Fourth, industry analysts, news outlets, and price reporting agencies may detect stockpiling by tracking market data and industry sources. For example, City Bank News outlets that closely track China’s stockpile purchases and sales Reuters and Bloomberg Price reporting agencies, etc. Fast Market and Benchmark Mineral Information We also track China’s stockpiling activities.
Finally, stockpiling is evidenced by other market indicators, such as a surge in imports. Market data other than explicit stockpile purchases can also indicate stockpiling. According to Reuters, the SRB Stockpiled Between 2010 and 2015, copper was mainly supplied by imports. In 2022, Reuters Guessed Accelerating Chinese copper imports in 2022 could be due to the SRB importing copper for its stockpiles.
Importantly, mineral stockpiling alone does not indicate that China is preparing to invade Taiwan. Stockpiling may be done for non-military reasons, strategic or economic. Strategically, China may be stockpiling for non-military purposes, such as copper supply concerns during an invasion of Taiwan. COVID-19 pandemicAlternatively, China may be stockpiling for economic reasons, such as rising mineral prices. support Domestic mineral producers.
But determining when and why China is stockpiling is becoming increasingly difficult given China’s increasing secrecy about its reserves. Minerals Related InformationThe concern is that some countries are limiting disclosure of information about minerals before they cause conflict. Germany, for example, Stop In 1935, they published statistics on metal consumption, which showed that Germany was rapidly Stockpiling Minerals. Germany then invaded Poland in September 1939.
As China’s mineral reserve activities become increasingly secretive, we accessed sources in China’s State Administration of Mineral Resources, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the National Development and Reform Commission. Supervise The NFSRA will be particularly helpful. Other sources that may be valuable include: National Mineral Resources Company Cooperating with the Chinese central government on mineral reserves, etc. Baotou Steelhelps store rare earth elements, and can also detect growing stockpiles by monitoring shipments to and from government facilities that store the minerals.
Ultimately, the mineral stockpiles are just one indicator that China may be preparing a military invasion of Taiwan. Historical precedent Examples of nations stockpiling minerals before invading include Germany and Japan before World War II. To better understand its military implications, China’s mineral stockpiling must be viewed in the context of Beijing’s statements and military activities regarding Taiwan.
