Selection Sunday is here. Like death and taxes, there’s another thing you can expect with certainty. The thing is, no one is happy about the seeds.
This weekend saw a slight decrease in the number of teams not playing, as so many teams in the tournament were inactive and most of the favorites won along the way.
A week ago, Maryland, Michigan, Virginia and Notre Dame seemed almost certain to be hosts. Now, if the NCAA selection committee is faithful to RPI, a scenario where two of those teams travel is also conceivable.
Virginia and Notre Dame will give the committee plenty to talk about. UVA ranks 10th in RPI and Notre Dame ranks 11th. Notre Dame has wins over Northwestern and Boston College, both teams coming off legitimate wins. Virginia v. B.C. A low RPI would give the committee pause. Because that’s the ranking used in the initial discussion.
You could make a case for both teams to jump ahead of Stony Brook (7th), but finding a way for the Cavaliers or Irish to make a case for ahead of Maryland (6th), Loyola (8th) and Michigan (9th). It becomes difficult.
Nevertheless, we are left with the top six schools in the RPI (Northwestern, British Columbia, Yale, Syracuse, Penn, Maryland), with Notre Dame and Virginia leapfrogging Stony Brook, Michigan State, and Loyola. I predict that.
last three spots
None of the bubble teams presented a convincing argument until the end, and the bid thief did not appear until 2:15 p.m. ET. Niagara then bounced Fairfield. And Richmond beat UMass.
Given that 11 at-large slots are taken, who will get the final three bids? Let’s break it down.
Fairfield (RPI 16, SOS 59)
Case Study: Victory over Drexel (RPI 20), 16-2.
Appeal: Lost to a non-tournament team with very low SOS (Holy Cross).
Verdict: So
Drexel (RPI 20, SOS 29)
Case Study: Wins over Penn State (RPI 22) and Navy (RPI 22) with no significant losses.
Opinion: Rarely do you beat tournament teams.
Verdict: So
Brown (RPI 23, SOS 31)
Case study: We beat two teams that had a high RPI and almost made it to the tournament.
Opinion: Loss to Harvard and likely misses the tournament.
Verdict: Out
Navy (RPI 22, SOS 43)
Case in point: 3 wins over Holy Cross and Duke, 4 wins over Richmond.
Disputed: Lost to St. Joseph’s (RPI 40), low SOS, 0-3 against RPI Top 20
Verdict: Out, but just barely.I won’t be shocked if it’s included.
Colorado (RPI 24, SOS 27)
Case Study: Win at Penn State (RPI 21), no significant losses.
Opinion: 0-5 for RPI Top 20
Verdict: Participating, but probably as the last team in the field
Clemson (RPI 27, SOS 24)
Example: Defeat Duke, a fellow bubble resident.
Counter case: 0-6 against top 20 teams, with a blowout loss to Louisville (RPI 45)
Verdict: Out
USC (RPI 28, SOS 43)
Case Study: Finished 2nd in Pac-12, beat Colorado (RPI 24), no major losses.
Counter case: Low RPI, 0-3 against RPI top 20, only significant win (Colorado) came as a split series.
Verdict: Out
Harvard University (RPI 29, SOS 39)
Case in point: Beat Brown finished 4th in a tough Ivy League race.
Challenge: Loss to Duke, 0-4 to RPI Top 20 teams.
Verdict: Out
Duke (RPI 31, SOS 12)
Case study: Strong SOS wins over the University of Virginia and Harvard University
Opinion: Lost 8 games (mostly in blowout style), low RPI, losses to fellow bubble teams Navy and Clemson.
Verdict: Out
Final point: The committee could probably rely on this. All teams included in the committee will beat other NCAA teams this year. This will likely keep USC and Duke, the two bottom teams in the bubble with wins over NCAA-level teams, out of the 29-team field.
Note: RPI Top 10, Top 11-20, Significant Wins and Significant Losses (40th place and above) vs. RPI is based on performance against RPI. Current RPI ranking (Lacrosse Reference, Sunday, May 5), not a human poll. The first-place NCAA Tournament-eligible team will be listed as an automatic qualifying team. In case of a tie, AQ will be awarded to the team with the highest rating in his RPI. There will be 15 automatic qualifiers for the 2024 season. No play-in games will be played on the 29-team field.
