ISLAMABAD:
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned of an extremely high flood situation developing in the Indus River basin as massive surges from the eastern rivers threaten to overwhelm downstream areas in the coming days.
According to forecasts, between September 3 and 4, floodwaters ranging from 900,000 to 950,000 cusecs are expected to pass through the Panjnad Headworks. Officials said that controlled breaches may be carried out to divert the flow, which could reduce the surge to between 825,000 and 900,000 cusecs, but still leave a heavy impact downstream.
The pressure will move further south, with the Guddu Barrage projected to receive flows of 800,000 to 1.1 million cusecs between September 5 and 6. If diversions are implemented, the volume may ease to between 750,000 and 900,000 cusecs.
Despite these measures, authorities cautioned that overall discharges could climb up to 1.2 million cusecs, a level categorised as an “extremely high flood.” Such volumes could test the resilience of the Indus flood control system and put millions at risk.
At Sukkur Barrage, between September 6 and 7, flows of 800,000 to 1.1 million cusecs are predicted, while Kotri Barrage is expected to see 800,000 to 1 million cusecs between September 8 and 9. A high alert has been issued for September 12-13, when experts anticipate the Indus to be in full spate across its lower stretches.
NDMA officials warned that heavy upstream discharges may create extreme flooding downstream, posing grave risks to low-lying riverine areas. Potential overflow, breaches in embankments, and widespread inundation of villages remain a serious concern.
“Flood surges of this magnitude can severely damage agricultural lands, nearby settlements, rural populations, and built infrastructure,” the NDMA said in its advisory, urging provincial governments and local administrations to prepare for emergency evacuations and protective measures.
The warning comes as the country reels under relentless monsoon rains, which have swollen the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab — to dangerous levels. Their combined pressure is now moving into the Indus, intensifying fears of devastation across Sindh and southern Punjab.
