Johannesburg, South Africa
CNN
—
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress is on track to fall short of a majority for the first time in three decades in this week’s general election, marking the country’s biggest political shift since the end of apartheid.
As of 5:10 pm ET, with results in 90% of precincts, the ANC had 41.04% of the vote. The official opposition, the centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), had 21.72% of the vote.
Behind them were two ANC splinter groups: Zuma’s newly formed Umkhonto weSizwe (MK) party with 13.69% of the vote, and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 9.46%, according to data released by the country’s electoral commission.
Voters fed up with years of corruption scandals and economic mismanagement have voted out Nelson Mandela’s party in a landslide victory that will force the ANC into forming a coalition to govern the world’s most unequal country.
South African president and ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa, once the front-runner to succeed Mandela, promised a “new dawn” when he replaced ousted president Jacob Zuma in 2018.
But many feel those promises never materialized, and the election results reflect deep public dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. South Africans could face political instability in the coming weeks as the ANC tries to forge a coalition deal with its former rivals.
The criticism of the ANC was not unexpected, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling party, but the scale of the losses took some by surprise.
“We found that voters are unhappy with the ANC’s recent history, particularly what happened under Zuma and what has happened since,” analyst and former ANC lawmaker Melanie Vervoord told CNN.
“There is a general arrogance on the part of the ANC and a loss of connection with ordinary voters,” Vervoorde said, adding that parties such as MK and the EFF were exploiting that discontent.
Zuma, a fierce critic of President Ramaphosa, was forced to step down as party leader in 2018 and briefly jailed for contempt of court in 2021. The Constitutional Court in May barred the 82-year-old Zuma from standing in parliamentary elections, but his face remained on MK’s ballot papers.
Once the final results are announced, serious negotiations are likely to begin. The parties have two weeks to form a coalition government before a new parliament convenes to elect a president. If they cannot, new elections will have to be held.
“I have no sympathy for Ramaphosa or his party,” Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhausen told CNN in an interview at the Election Results Centre.
“Their unwillingness to address Zuma’s future and his crimes of omission and execution has now allowed him to become a political force that is sweeping them across KwaZulu-Natal and other parts of the country.”
The populous coastal eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal, which includes the main city of Durban, has traditionally been a stronghold of the conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
Zuma has faced hundreds of allegations of corruption, fraud and organised crime over the years – allegations he has always denied – and has become known as the “Teflon President” because few politicians could survive the scandals he has faced and weathered.
Analysts CNN spoke to, including Vervoord, believe the most likely coalition would be between the ANC and the DA. But others are skeptical of that outcome. They all agree the country is in uncharted territory.
Steenhausen told CNN he wanted to be part of a coalition government and believed it “would work well.” Before the election, the DA had already formed a coalition with smaller opposition parties, called a “multi-party constitution.”
What he calls a “doomsday coalition” is one of the other options on the table: an ANC-EFF or even an agreement between MKs.
But given the level of contempt felt towards Ramaphosa within the breakaway party, negotiations will be extremely difficult.
The EFF is led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema and advocates land expropriation without compensation and radical nation-nationalism. The MK party’s manifesto is broadly similar, calling for a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s constitution to restore more power to traditional leaders.
South Africa’s political situation has never been more uncertain since the dawn of democracy in 1994.
But some analysts believe that despite the uncertainties, the outcome of the election could be a victory for democracy.
“Maybe this was a maturing of democracy and a change was needed. It’s never good for the country to be in such a one-party state,” Vervoord said.
“We may see a little more instability in the future, but for democracy, that’s probably a good thing.”
She said the ANC’s prospects had declined dramatically under the former president.
“It became inevitable that approval ratings would decline after the start of Jacob Zuma’s government,” she added.
The ANC came to power in 1994 on a platform of promise. He ran on a platform of “building a better life for all,” and won about 63% of the vote in the country’s first democratic elections.
Three decades on, endemic corruption, soaring unemployment, severe power outages and weak economic growth are severely affecting South Africans.
The economy has been in recession for the past decade, evidenced by a sharp decline in living standards: Gross domestic product per capita has fallen from its peak in 2011, and the average South African is 23% poorer, according to the World Bank.
According to the World Bank, South Africa has the highest unemployment rate in the world, as well as the world’s worst inequality.
Black South Africans, who make up 81 percent of the country’s population, are in the middle of this dire situation. Unemployment and poverty remain concentrated among the black majority, primarily due to inadequate public schools, while most white South Africans have jobs and fairly high wages.
Any coalition government would be a bitter pill to swallow for the ANC and President Ramaphosa, who may soon find himself fighting for his political life.
Leading analysts believe the ANC relies too much on its traditions.
“The ANC campaigned on its 30-year history, but nobody was paying attention to the current president,” said TK Poo, a senior lecturer at the Wits School of Government in Johannesburg, who believes Ramaphosa is “under pressure”.
“Historically, this is a disgrace to him. He always portrays himself as the next Nelson Mandela,” Poo told CNN, but “to my recollection, Nelson Mandela never lost an election.”
Poo said voters had told the ANC three things in this election: “Jobs, jobs, jobs”.
While it is highly uncertain whether the coalition government will be able to deliver results for its people, one thing is clear: South Africa and the ANC (Mandela’s former liberation movement that defeated apartheid) will never be the same.
