- author, Barbara Plett Usher
- role, Jerusalem
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under pressure from both the Israeli and US governments to end the Gaza war, is visiting the US this week. How will the political turmoil in Washington affect this visit and future relations?
Netanyahu is due to meet with President Joe Biden if he has recovered from COVID-19 and then address a joint session of Congress, becoming only the fourth foreign leader to do so.
The visit offers Trump a platform to resolve months of tension over his hardline stance on the war and an opportunity to reassure Israel that he is not damaging relations with Israel’s most important ally.
But the shadow of President Biden’s decision not to seek reelection could highlight the political uncertainty surrounding Israel’s next partner in the White House and dim the spotlight on Netanyahu’s visit.
The prime minister attracted a lot of unwelcome attention in Israel until the moment he boarded the plane.
The outcry in the protests called on the president to stay home and focus on reaching a ceasefire agreement with Hamas to free Israeli hostages.
“Until he signs the agreement that’s being negotiated, I don’t know how he’s going to get across the Atlantic and deal with the political turmoil in America,” said Lee Siegel, whose family took part in the protest, whose 65-year-old brother, Keith, is a prisoner of war in Gaza.
He added that the visit was a political move unless Netanyahu put an end to the “obstacles” and signed a ceasefire.
Siegel reflected the widespread view that Netanyahu was stalling the talks for his own political reasons, unsettling negotiators by recently imposing new conditions on talks that had appeared to be progressing.
The prime minister has been accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right ministers who had threatened to topple his government if he made any concessions to Hamas.
These perceptions have further fueled frustration within the White House, which announced the latest round of talks and expressed optimism that an agreement could be reached.
Biden is one of the most pro-Israel presidents to sit in the Oval Office and, as a self-described Zionist, has been praised by Israelis for his staunch support and sympathy, having fled to Israel just days after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.
But he has since grown wary of the cost of Netanyahu’s demand for a “total victory” against Hamas in Gaza.
The administration is unhappy with the Israeli prime minister’s rejection of a post-war settlement that would pursue the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Israel is infuriated by Trump’s resistance to calls to protect Palestinian civilians and provide more aid to them, faces a domestic backlash over the rising death toll in Gaza and worries about the conflict spreading to the region.
As Joe Biden’s power wanes amid swirling debate over his ability to serve as president, analysts said he may have less room to keep up pressure on the Israeli prime minister.
But Biden’s decision to drop out of the race may actually strengthen his position, said Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister and critic of Netanyahu.
“He’s not a lame duck on foreign policy. He’s more independent in some ways because he doesn’t have to consider the impact on his constituents,” Barak told the BBC.
“When it comes to Israel, maybe he feels he has more freedom to do what is truly necessary.”
Barak believes parliament made a mistake in inviting Netanyahu to speak, says many Israelis blame him for failed policies that allowed Hamas attacks and that three in four Israelis want him to resign.
“This man does not represent Israel,” he said. “He has lost the trust of the Israeli people… And for the U.S. Congress to ask Mr. Netanyahu to give the impression that he is saving us would send the wrong message to Israelis, and perhaps to Mr. Netanyahu himself.”
Whatever political maneuvering he may undertake, Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that military pressure must continue because a series of attacks on Hamas’ military leadership has severely weakened the group.
In comments before leaving Israel, he suggested his meeting with President Biden would strike a similar tone.
“It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how we can advance the goals that are important to both of our countries in the coming months,” he said: “The release of all hostages, the defeat of Hamas, the confrontation of Iran and its proxies’ axis of terror, and the safe return of all Israelis to their homes in the north and south.”
He is expected to take the same message to Congress, where he will “seek to solidify the bipartisan support that is so important to Israel.”
The reality is that Netanyahu’s policies have divided bipartisan support, with Republicans backing him but increasing criticism from Democrats.
Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently caused a mini-earthquake in Washington when he stood up on the floor of the chamber and said that Prime Minister Netanyahu was one of the obstacles to a lasting peace with the Palestinians.
“I hope the prime minister understands and addresses the concerns of many MPs,” Thomas Nides, a former US ambassador to Israel, told the BBC over the weekend, while speaking at one of many rallies calling for the hostages’ release.
This includes “on humanitarian issues and making it clear that this fight is not against the Palestinian people, but against Hamas.”
It’s a message Kamala Harris will repeat if she becomes the Democratic nominee. U.S. policy will remain unchanged: committed to Israel’s security, but pushing for an end to the Gaza conflict and incorporating a plan for “after” regional peace with Arab countries.
But there may be a difference in tone.
Ms Harris doesn’t have Mr Biden’s long history or emotional connection to Israel, and because she is from a different generation, “she may be more in tune with the sentiment of younger Democrats,” said Mick Mulroy, a former assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.
“This stance will likely include restricting arms and munitions from the United States for use in Gaza,” he said.
Netanyahu could use the visit to shift the conversation from the dispute over Gaza to a much more familiar topic for him: the Iranian threat, especially following the recent escalation of tensions with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
But his main audience will be domestic, said Tal Shalev, a diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Walla News.
She said Trump wanted to revive his image as “Mr America” - the man best able to present Israel to the US – and repair his own image, which was shattered by the October 7 attacks.
“When he goes to the United States and speaks to Congress, [has] “At a meeting for his electoral base at the White House, the old Bibi is back,” she said, using a nickname for the prime minister. “This is not the failed Bibi who was responsible for October 7. This is the old Bibi who went to parliament and received a standing ovation.”
It also gives him an opportunity to explore his relationship with former President Donald Trump at a time of great political upheaval in Washington.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu wants President Trump to win,” she said, “and he wants to make sure he and President Trump have a good relationship before the election.”
There is a widespread view that Prime Minister Netanyahu is biding his time, hoping that a Trump victory would ease some of the pressure from the Biden administration.
“There is a near-universal view that Netanyahu is eager for Trump to win, which would give him the freedom to do whatever he wants,” wrote Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum.
“Biden has not pressed for a ceasefire or on settlements or settler violence in the West Bank…There are many reasons to be skeptical of such an interpretation of the situation under the Trump administration’s return to power, but Netanyahu would likely go along with it.”
The question is whether Biden will ease that pressure by stepping down from the presidential race, or whether he will actually use the remainder of his term to focus on ending the Gaza war.
