Supporters listen to President Biden speak during a campaign event for Black voters supporting Biden at Girard College in Philadelphia on Wednesday, May 29. Biden won the support of about 80% of Black voters under the age of 45 in 2020, though a recent University of Chicago poll puts that support in even more doubt in 2024.
Evan Vucci/AP/AP
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Evan Vucci/AP/AP
With just five months to go until the presidential election, some aspects of young people’s voting status remain in question.
It’s a topic that comes up regularly, with President Biden receiving poor ratings from Gen Z and millennial voters, despite them clearly voting for him four years ago.
But support has dropped significantly among young Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020, at higher rates than young white voters, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward poll.
The survey, obtained exclusively by NPR, was conducted May 10-22 and explored the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under the age of 40, including roughly equal numbers of white, Black, Latino, and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals.
The poll found that just a third of all young Americans would support Biden if the election were taking place at the time the survey was conducted, and the race is effectively tied: Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just 2 points, and 34% of respondents said they currently support a third-party candidate or “someone else.”
Moreover, despite speculation that U.S. support for Israel might hurt Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the Gaza war is not a top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, especially about inflation, remain a top priority.
But the economy was one of the policy areas, along with immigration and the Gaza conflict, where respondents were least likely to choose Biden as the candidate best suited to solve the problems, pointing to potentially serious problems for Biden’s campaign to win over younger generations.
Biden’s 2020 coalition will fade in 2024
Looking at the electoral votes by race and ethnicity, Biden lost support especially among young black and Latino voters.
In 2020, 89% of Black voters ages 18-29 voted for Biden, along with 78% of voters ages 30-44. In the latest GenForward survey, just 33% said they would support Biden if the election were held today, while 23% chose Trump.
Trump leads Biden among young Hispanic voters by 4 percentage points, a significant drop in Biden’s support from four years ago, when Biden won 69% of Hispanic voters under 30 and 62% of Hispanic voters between 30 and 44 years old.
In a sample of registered voters only, Biden’s approval rating improved, with him again ahead of Trump among Hispanic voters, though the gap remains slim. Biden’s approval rating among black voters rose just 2 percentage points to 35%.
“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘Win me, win my vote,'” said Cathy Cohen, a University of Chicago professor who founded and leads the GenForward poll. “‘Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you right now.'”
The statement rings especially true for people who are still searching for another candidate even though the presidential primary is effectively over: About a quarter of black and Latino people said they would vote for another candidate.
Cohen argued that “someone else” voters have several avenues and that their views may change as the election approaches.
“Young people are showing up like this now as we head into the summer,” she added. “By the time we get to November and things are on the line, the numbers might change a little bit.”
But in a June poll conducted by GenForward four years ago (which did not include third-party candidates), Biden had strong support among majorities of Black, Latino and Asian Americans, and only 15% of them, on average, said they would vote for another candidate.
The latest poll also includes third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, which may indicate that their presence on the ballot could split the young vote in this fall’s election. Similar results were shown in the latest Harvard Youth Poll, which showed Biden beating Trump in head-to-head races but narrowing the gap when third-party candidates are added.
Economic issues, not Israel-Hamas war, are what sway voters
When asked what the most important issue is on the ballot this fall, inflation ranks first among all groups. Concerns about economic growth are second among young Black, Latino and Asian Americans, while “threats to American democracy” ranks first among whites.
For Cohen, many of Biden’s problems have to do with the current economic situation, and while inflation is slowing, he argues these changes haven’t trickled down enough.
“Younger people are facing higher rent prices, higher food prices, higher gas prices, and I believe their incomes are less flexible than older people,” she explained.
Gen Z and millennials aren’t the only generations prioritizing the economy, which consistently ranks as the top priority across generations and races. In this latest poll, issues often associated with younger voters, like abortion rights, curbing gun violence, addressing climate change and ending the war in Gaza, rank low on the list of important issues.
Asked to choose the presidential candidate who would best handle issues related to immigration and inflation, Trump received the most support overall, but in a question that gave respondents the options of Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none,” Trump was closely followed by “none.”
Abortion rights, one of Biden’s stronger areas and a mainstay of his campaign, is where he leads by just 3 points, followed by the “neutral” option.
In the 2022 midterm elections, protecting abortion access was the top motivator among voters under 30, who overwhelmingly voted for the Democratic candidate.
Abortion remains a key election issue, according to the GenForward poll: A third of respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agreed that “abortion should always be available as a personal choice.”
Only 4% of young Americans say the war between Israel and Hamas is the most important voting issue for them. There is also a knowledge gap on the issue: When asked about their support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, and who is to blame for the conflict – Hamas, the Israeli government, the U.S. government, the Iranian government, or given all three options, respondents were most likely to select “I don’t know.”
The issue is even more important among young Asian American and Asian Pacific Americans, with 10% saying it’s the most important issue when voting in the election and 6 in 10 wanting a permanent ceasefire.
And young people overall support an end to the war, with 53% in favor of a permanent ceasefire.
However, approval of Biden’s handling of the conflict is low, with just 12% approving, 49% disapproving, and 39% choosing neither option.
All of this underscores the complicated choices facing many undecided young Americans this fall, particularly voters of color who might typically align with Democratic values, Cohen argued.
The likely options are to again align with Biden or effectively stay home.
“The Biden campaign is relying on young people in battleground states, and if they don’t vote, in a way it’s a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.
“I don’t think we’ve really thought through what it would mean if enough young people of color or enough young people of color decided not to vote,” she continued.
