The last time the New England Patriots played a game without coach Bill Belichick was right after the Y2K crisis.
On January 2, 2000, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens but Pete Carroll was fired as head coach. The day before, Tom Brady played his final college game. There are lots of ways to explain how things have changed since then, but in Patriots world, this is key: They went from being one of the NFL’s more forgettable franchises to 17 AFC East titles, nine AFC championships and six Super Bowl wins under Belichick’s direction. They built the greatest dynasty in NFL history, and maybe in sports history. That dynasty ended with Brady’s departure, and Belichick’s departure came just as quickly.
It would be an odd sight to see Jerrod Mayo as head coach of the Patriots. Mayo was 14 years old when Belichick coached the Patriots for the first time. He was drafted by New England in 2008, by which point Belichick had already won three Super Bowls as the team’s head coach. Mayo had a successful eight-year career as a linebacker in the NFL. After Mayo retired as a player, Belichick coached for another eight seasons.
But it was time for a change: Belichick’s relationship with team owner Robert Kraft was deteriorating, as was Belichick’s relationship with Brady, and, more importantly, the Patriots were in deep disrepair.
Belichick was a great guy, but he destroyed the Patriots. Years of mis-drafted picks and misguided signings left the Patriots with arguably the worst roster in the NFL. They went 4-13 last season, but Belichick’s masterful defensive coaching (he produced the ninth-best defense in DVOA despite a deep quarterback draft) stole two wins. The only parting gift Belichick left New England was that they finished the season with the third-worst record in a draft with a deep quarterback pool.
The Patriots drafted quarterback Drake Maye from North Carolina. Maye will lead the Patriots into a new era with Maye. The fact that multiple teams, including the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings, were very excited to trade up for the No. 3 overall pick should show that the Patriots made the right choice to stay put and draft Maye. The Patriots need to replenish their roster, but they can’t turn down a potential franchise quarterback. With Maye in the mix, rebuilding in New England will be much easier.
Maye has been a big draw. He was the QB1 of this draft class for Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports. He has all the skills to be successful, as long as his offensive personality doesn’t make turnovers a big problem. One problem is that the Patriots haven’t done much to improve the offense around him yet. They tried to acquire free agent receiver Calvin Ridley, but Kraft says Ridley chose the Tennessee Titans because his girlfriend wanted to be in the South, although Kraft’s comment that “the quarterback situation may have had some to do with it” is probably more accurate. The Patriots aren’t a destination yet. It’s going to take time. The first step is for Maye to become the type of QB other players want to play with.
A few players still remain from the Patriots’ glory days. Mayo is another key link to the dynasty. But the Patriots’ reign is long over. It wasn’t that long ago that the Patriots dominated the NFL, but it feels like a lifetime ago. The good news for the Patriots is that just as quickly as they lost their spot at the top of the NFL, they can reclaim it again. It doesn’t take a team long to bounce back, but it usually takes a big hit from the coach and quarterback, like the Houston Texans did a year ago. It’s unlikely that Mayo and Mayo will ever come close to Brady and Belichick, but if they succeed, the terrible performances of the past two seasons will soon be forgotten.
Off-season grade
The Patriots draft class will be in charge of offseason evaluation. Drake Maye is an exciting quarterback who fell to New England with the third pick. Second-round pick Jalyn Polk has been discussed as a receiver prospect and could quickly become the Patriots’ No. 1 target. Some think fourth-round pick Javon Baker could be better than Polk. The Patriots didn’t do much in free agency. Antonio Gibson is solid as a pass-catching running back, and Jacoby Brissett would be a key backup quarterback addition if the Patriots want to rest Maye and let him learn. Receiver KJ Osborne can play in the slot but won’t solve New England’s issues at that position. Linebacker Zion Takitaki is a nice low-cost addition to the defense. There’s nothing to get excited about in this free-agent class, but re-signing offensive lineman Mike Onwenu to a three-year, $57 million deal and retaining safety Kyle Dugger to a four-year, $58 million deal were big moves. The Patriots also traded quarterback Mac Jones to the Jaguars, which didn’t affect the 2024 roster but marked a disappointing end to Jones’ time in New England after a successful start.
School year: C-
Quarterback Report
The Patriots have new faces, but Mayo may fall back on Belichick’s old approach if he were to start right away.
“Going back to Bill, I don’t think a lot of the rookies are ready to jump in and play right away,” Mayo said, via NBC Sports.
Mayo seems to be serious about competing with Brissett for the starting spot throughout training camp. This isn’t the worst idea. The Patriots don’t have a lot of talent to help Maye. Even the offensive line is without 2022 first-round draft pick Cole Strange, who could miss until midseason due to a knee injury, according to NFL Media. Brissett is a top-tier backup who can be a functional starter in the short term. We’ll see Maye at some point this season. It’s very rare for a first-round draft pick quarterback to not start at all as a rookie, but maybe not Week 1. Given the Patriots’ offensive situation at the quarterback position, it could help Maye in the long run.
BetMGM odds breakdown
Are the Patriots going to be the worst team in the NFL? The betting markets believe so. The Patriots’ odds to win at BetMGM dropped from 5.5 to 4.5, giving the Patriots the lowest total on the board. The Carolina Panthers have a total of 5.5. Only one other team, the Denver Broncos, has a total below 6.5. The Patriots still have a long way to go before they’re a respected team again. It’s also telling that Maye is eighth in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds at 20-1. Quarterbacks have an easier path to the award than any other player, but the Patriots’ poor situation (and the fact that Maye isn’t a surefire Week 1 starter) has him trailing three quarterbacks and four receivers in the OROY odds.
Yahoo’s take on fantasy
From Scott Pianowski of Yahoo: “It can be daunting to pick a fantasy back from a losing team, as the flow of the game is often against you and it makes sense that weaker teams won’t score as many points, but Ramondre Stevenson can still contribute in fantasy as a featured back in New England.
“First, Stevenson has little competition for carries. New England’s No. 2 back is Antonio Gibson rather than a satellite player. Kevin Harris and JaMychal Hasty are merely reinforcement options. And the Patriots’ offense is led by OC Alex Van Pelt, who was part of a run-first regime in Cleveland. Stevenson may not have the same upside potential as Yahoo’s current RB20, but he could at least get a return on his investment when healthy.”
Statistics to remember
The Patriots’ top receiver last season was rookie Demario Douglas, who had 561 yards. He didn’t score a touchdown. This sums up how ugly the Patriots’ offense was in 2023. In 2022, everyone blamed the offense’s poor performance on Bill Belichick’s inexplicable decision to make Matt Patricia the coordinator, but Bill O’Brien couldn’t have done better running the offense last season either. The Patriots scored seven points or less in six games and were shutout in two games. There just wasn’t enough talent on offense. The quarterback play was terrible and the receiver corps might be the worst in the NFL. Stevenson is a talented back, but he struggled with injuries and was a pretty disappointing underachiever.
The concern here is that not enough has changed around the quarterback to help Maye, and when the Patriots decide when to start Maye, they will have to consider the damage that could be done to Maye by playing with a subpar supporting cast.
Key Questions
Can Jerrod Mayo handle the pressure?
Mayo had been considered a front-runner for the head coaching job for several years, but the circumstances were never as tough as they could have been for a first job.
Mayo will be replacing arguably the greatest head coach in NFL history, with teams that are not good enough to contend for playoff spots and a lack of coaching experience, including only five years as an inside linebackers coach. Experience as a coordinator or head coach is not a prerequisite for success, but replacing a legendary coach with such little experience is a stretch.
Mayo is viewed as a players’ coach, and this would be a big change from Belichick. The players were excited to play for Mayo, who would bring new ideas and energy. But the fan base is not used to losing, and Mayo, a standout linebacker for the Patriots, has yet to build goodwill as a coach. How patient can New England be while Mayo leads a rebuild?
Best case scenario
There’s a world where Patriots players are free to play and have fun, and the results are better. Belichick was a great player, but playing for him was hard work. Mayo is a whole new look for New England. The defense shouldn’t be bad, especially if edge rusher Matt Judon returns strong from a torn biceps. Mayo might be one of the few rookie quarterbacks who can be an immediate star. He has the type of skill that would make him very good in the NFL. If that happens, the Patriots’ future would suddenly look bright. Even the most optimistic outlook has a hard time believing the Patriots will be a playoff team, but if you feel the Patriots have broken out of their downward spiral, this season will be a success.
Nightmare scenario
All six teams that drafted a quarterback in the first round are happy with it. But we all know that not all six will be good. If Maye falters, the Patriots are back to square one. He’s the bright spot on the Patriots roster for now. Hopefully he’s good and New England can start building around him. What if he’s not good? We probably won’t know the answer in Year 1, but it would be disappointing if he looks underwhelming. The same goes for Mayo. There’s not enough of a track record to know if he’ll be a good head coach. If Mayo and Maye aren’t good enough to lead a rebuild, look at the rest of the Patriots roster. There’s no other reason for optimism.
The crystal ball says
The Patriots are going to be a dud. There is a fantasy world where May is CJ Stroud and Mayo is DeMeco Ryans, and the 2024 Patriots are the 2023 Texans, but the Texans had a better roster and an easier division last year. And a rookie like Stroud is very rare. The measure of the Patriots’ success will be that Mayo feels like a fit for the team and doesn’t get weighed down by the bad circumstances around him, and that Mayo shows he’s the right leader for the future. Both of these things should happen. And the Patriots will draft early in 2025, and things will look brighter going forward.
Other previews
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