LAHORE:
Political space for opposition parties, particularly the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), may have further shrunk after the establishment bolstered its ties with the West, as analysts suggest that the beleaguered party’s chances of making a political comeback during the current regime were virtually nonexistent.
However, they caution that the budding relationship with the Trump administration could be a volatile, double-edged sword for the powers that be.
Former Punjab caretaker chief minister and senior political analyst Hasan Askari said that PTI has no political future under the current dispensation, which he described as being firmly controlled by a powerful establishment.
According to him, the establishment has only grown stronger in the wake of two mini-wars in the region.
“This setup will not cede any space to PTI, as it would mark the beginning of their own undoing. They cannot afford for PTI to do politicking on the streets. As long as they have power, they will keep Imran behind bars,” Askari said.
He further noted that no government since Benazir Bhutto’s first stint in power had ceded this much ground to the military as the current one has.
Askari said that the current setup, which derives its strength “from the very top,” could last for a considerable period. However, when it falls, “it will go down like a house of cards”. He added that PTI will likely outlive this regime and will “rise from the ruins” the moment it is granted political space.
Regarding Pakistan’s relations with the US, he said that Islamabad’s “relations with America will last for as long as their interests and ours are aligned”. Pakistan may benefit in the short term, he added, but this relationship is contextual. “Tomorrow, when our utility diminishes, so will the warmth in the relationship.”
Another political analyst, Rasool Bakhsh Rais, said that while PTI may currently be in a bind, it was rapidly regaining ground. “PML-N and PPP are steadily losing what little public legitimacy they had,” he said.
Rais pointed to the Supreme Court’s recent decision to hand over PTI’s reserved seats to PML-N and PPP, saying it “has exposed the underbelly of this hybrid-plus regime”.
He said that the West has a long history of supporting dictatorships and autocratic regimes when it suits its interests. “Even in our case, American support for the establishment is only delegitimising the political government. The system might have gained strength, but constitutionally it has become frail.”
He added that PTI founder Imran Khan would not buckle under pressure and would stand his ground. “Imran Khan is a beacon of hope for Pakistan’s political system. His stand is in the interest of the country,” Rais said.
He noted that while the current dispensation may ignore public perception for now, “soon they will understand what the opinion of a common man is worth”.
Another analyst, Salman Abid, agreed that cordial ties with the US come at a price. He described the US-Pakistan relationship as purely transactional.
“America has significant strategic interests in this region, and it sees Pakistan as crucial to achieving those goals,” he said, adding that this friendship would not come as a “free lunch”.
Abid expressed concern that Pakistan’s growing closeness with the US could distance it from its long-time ally, China. “This system has no political weight, and it will continue to function only so long as it has wind in its sails,” he said.
He warned that such power structures in Pakistan have a long history of failing spectacularly.
