Regardless of what happens in Sunday’s Wimbledon final, Novak Djokovic will likely hold a firm lead in the race for all-time Grand Slam titles forever.
Djokovic will retire ahead of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer no matter what. Everyone else is so far behind that the numbers don’t seem to matter. With Djokovic reaching the end of his career at age 37, does it really matter whether he wins 24 or 25 majors?
It could be, and only because of the man who will be on the other side of the net from Djokovic on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz enters the Wimbledon final with a chance to make plenty of history: He could become just the ninth player in the Open Era to win consecutive tournaments at the All England Club and the sixth to complete the French Open-Wimbledon double.
But if Alcaraz wins his fourth Grand Slam title on Sunday, Djokovic may have to worry about whether he has enough.
Doesn’t that sound ridiculous? Four is much further away than 24. A lot can happen in a tennis career, from injuries to loss of motivation to another strong rival coming along and taking the title away from you, so it’s unlikely you’ll ever catch up with Djokovic.
But given what Alcaraz has done so far and what his likely future growth will be, it’s not unreasonable to think he could make it into his 20s, and when Alcaraz is the same age Djokovic is now 15 years from now, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if this Wimbledon final was remembered as the defining moment in their Grand Slam rivalry.
Here’s a brief look at why Djokovic should feel at least a little intimidated by the prospect that Alcaraz might one day break his most important record.
- Not only has Alcaraz won three Grand Slams at age 21, he has done so on three different surfaces. He won’t end up like Pete Sampras, who never figured out clay. He won’t end up like Ivan Lendl, who never made it across the finish line on grass. Barring injury, Alcaraz will be competing in every Grand Slam for the foreseeable future, and his struggles so far at the Australian Open have only been down to bad timing (relatively speaking). It’s almost certain that he’ll eventually win there and complete his career Grand Slam.
- There is no player in Alcaraz’s weight class in the top group of young players. Sure, his rivalry with 22-year-old Jannik Sinner has produced some great matches, and Sinner has won them (Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 5-4). But Sinner, who won the Australian Open this year, hasn’t shown the same physical ability to endure the rigors of a five-set match as Alcaraz has. Alcaraz has already dominated players like Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev, who could beat Alcaraz when they’re in good form, but overall they’re no threat to Alcaraz. The only threats are Djokovic and Sinner, and Djokovic probably won’t last long.
- Alcaraz has already reached the stage where he can win a Grand Slam tournament without playing his best tennis. Other players have to have everything in order to win. Alcaraz was in doubt at this year’s French Open due to a forearm injury and had some poor performances during the tournament, but he only performed at about 80% of his ability. However, he showed great play at the crucial moments and won the tournament.
- If Alcaraz averages 1.5 Grand Slam titles per year for the next decade, he’ll have 18 by age 31, a goal that seems entirely achievable at this point and may also be a conservative estimate of his potential.
- And perhaps the biggest factor in this is that Alcaraz still has a lot of room for improvement. His serve will improve. His shot selection will refine with experience. His temptation to go for the flashier plays rather than the more sure-footed ones that sometimes plague him will subside with time. He’ll eventually learn how to combat lapses in concentration. Alcaraz is very good now, but he’s still nowhere near the ability he was at his peak.
Alcaraz was already considered a generational talent when he reached his first Wimbledon final last year, but it would have been foolish to put his name in the Grand Slam record conversation at that point: Alcaraz had only won the U.S. Open, a far cry from Djokovic’s seven Wimbledon titles, second only to Federer’s eight.
When Alcaraz won the match in five sets, it was the first real seismic shift in the tennis landscape. Djokovic responded with an incredible decline, including a dominant US Open victory, but the first half of 2024 saw younger players dominating the tennis world, while Djokovic barely played between the Australian Open and the spring, performing poorly, and his health and motivation to push himself physically as well as before were suddenly called into question.
A few weeks ago, it seemed unlikely that Djokovic would get a chance to win his 25th major title this summer, and perhaps never after he withdrew from the French Open quarterfinals with a knee injury.
The general feeling was that Djokovic would opt for surgery straight away, hoping to get back fit for the one big prize he has yet to win: the Olympics, but he felt he had progressed enough to play at Wimbledon, drawing a very favorable draw and using his vast experience and grass savvy to reach the final without too much strain.
At this stage in Djokovic’s career, this may be what he needs to do to win another Grand Slam. This time things will go well for him and the only real test he faces will be the final, which he will undoubtedly win.
But unlike last year, Alcaraz is the favorite this time. He knows how to handle a Grand Slam final, both mentally and physically, and his top level is at least as good as Djokovic’s top level in 2024, maybe even better.
Djokovic may still have the talent to win a few more Grand Slam titles, but he’ll never have a better chance than at Wimbledon, where physical decline is not as much of a factor as it is on hard or clay courts.
This is a great opportunity to put even more distance between Djokovic and Alcaraz in the history books, and the way things are going, Djokovic may need it in the future.
