The third Saturday in May is just a few days away and the 149th Preakness Stakes will be held. The “Run for the Black-Eyed Susans” will begin on Saturday, May 20th at approximately 7:00 pm ET at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Here’s a look at the best bets for the 2024 Preakness Stakes, along with the horse’s odds and trends you should know about.
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2024 Preakness Stakes Best Bets and Trends
Win trends by position since 1909 (#* indicates wins since 2000)
1 – Mugatu (20-1) – (Post 1 winners – 13, latest – National Treasure, 2023) 3*
2 – Heavy Uncle (20-1) – (2 Posts Winners – 12, Latest – Cloud Computing, 2017) 1*
3 – Seize your freedom (6-1) – (Post 3 Winners – 12, Latest – California Chrome, 2014) 1*
4 – Muto (8-5) – (Post 4 Winners – 14, Latest – Swiss Skydiver, 2020) 3*
5 – Mystic Dan (5-2) – (Winners of 5 Posts – 13, Latest – Early Voting, 2022) 3*
6 – Grab the Gray (15-1) – (Post 6 Winners – 16, Latest – Oxbow, 2013) 3*
7 – Just Steal (15-1) – (8 Posts Winners – 14, Latest – Justify, 2018) 3*
8 – Tuscan Gold (8-1) – (post 8 winners – 10, latest – Bernardini, 2006) 2*
9 – Imagination (6-1) – (Winner of Post 9 – 4, Latest – I’ll Have Another, 2012) 2*
10～13 – “Not Applicable” – (In any case, these 4 posts combined only produced 8 winners)
Bad bets based on trends
There are no bad horses, only bad bets. That’s why we use the phrase “bad bets based on trends” for the participating horses below. These are horses that face statistically and historically unfavorable factors to win the Preakness. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I’m a process-driven bettor, and these bets are the opposite of process-driven.
Isn’t that a long shot?
Of the 148 horses that have won the Preakness Stakes, only four have started at odds longer than 15-1. This will likely eliminate Mugatu and Uncle Heavy. In fact, the longest opening odds for a Preakness winner was his 23-1 (1975 Master Derby). That said, since 2009 there have been more longshots (six) than favorites (five) to win the Preakness, a trend that has reversed in recent years. Additionally, keep in mind that Uncle Heavy is the only horse in this field that has proven to be muddy, with his last two wins coming in the Aqueduct Slop in the Wizards Stakes. If anyone is going to take home big bucks on their own this Saturday, it’s going to be Thief Rocket, ridden by famous jockey Irado Ortiz Jr. The importance of the horse scenes here cannot be understated, and the seas begin to part. The sky is opening up, so Uncle Heavy.
Preakness positive trends
my old kentucky house
Of the 148 Preakness winners, 104 came from Kentucky, including the past eight. Ankle Heavy (PA) is the only horse this year that doesn’t fit this criteria, but as I said, Ankle Heavy is a special case. However, of the 44 winning horses not bred in the Bluegrass State, eight were homegrown winners bred in Maryland (unfortunately, there were no runners this year); was won in the late 19th century. The last Pennsylvania-bred winner was Smarty Jones in 2004 (with an underdog story of his own), and the last winner outside of Kentucky was California Chrome in 2014. Can you guess where he was produced?
Creating a grade
Since 1997, 24 of the 27 Preakness winners have won graded stakes, and 17 of the 27 had won a Group 1 race before the Preakness. In fact, all of the past 27 winning horses finished in second place in major stakes races. Winners in this field include Uncle Heavy (G3), Catching Freedom (G2), Mystic Dan (G1), Say’s the Gray (G2), Just Steal (LS) and Imagination (G2) in graded stakes races. This trend does not bode well for Mugatu and Tuscan Gold, although the latter has only raced three times and we all know that the trifecta is optimal.
need for speed
Recent Preakness offspring have had an advantage on pacesetters and stalkers, with 13 of the last 15 horses coming within four lengths of the leader after the first 1/2 mile. Only two horses have won by positioning themselves in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark: 2021 Rombauer and 2014 Exagrator, the latter of whom ran that day in a perfect storm on the toughest of the rough tracks. I rode the rails in parts. . Horses always win the Preakness with a great run in the final straight, but it’s rare that they keep winning for so long. A relatively short 1 3/16 mile race is simply not a good enough track for most deep closers. Four of the past 15 winners have been wire-to-wire winners, and with Moot’s departure four potential pacesetters are Imagination, Mystic Dan, Tuscan Gold and Just Steel. Although it’s only the head, this trend definitely favors these four. If he can overcome a “wide” draw and get to the front early, it will be particularly advantageous for Imagination and its short odds.
Bob’s Spare
Bob Baffert has eight wins, the most in Preakness history. Sure, Baffert has won eight of the last 27 races, but Walden’s last win was in his 1888, which proves how difficult it is to wear his black-eyed Susan over and over again. doing. Say what you will about Baffert’s shady training methods, but the man has three winners and a W in the last 10 years, including two Triple Crown contenders (American Pharoah and Justify). His best horse this weekend, Moose, suffered a scrape due to a fever. No one benefits more from Moot’s scratch than stablemate Imagination.
Originally intended to provide pace for the Moose race, Imagination now stands out as a real threat for a wire-to-wire win if he gets off to the right start on the nine-hole. If he can get out in front of the pack and Mystic Dan has a less-than-ideal trip, this race lacks serious speed and could be ripe for a fight. With trainer Bob Baffert boasting more Preakness wins (nine) than anyone in history and his attention currently focused on the son of championship sire Into Mischief, the sky is the limit Saturday, even if you can’t see the words. All sky overcast with a sloppy track projected.
It’s not raining in Baltimore like it did in 2018, when the fog and hills led to Justify’s victory in 2018, but it’s definitely going to rain. Imagination has never raced in anything other than “fast” conditions, but he has a proven track record in the deep sand of Santa Anita Park and should be strong as a thief. That may be enough in this field.
Maintain a state of 100 or more
Since 1962, every winning horse in the Preakness has posted an equivalent speed figure of over 100. Of the nine horses running this year, Musu (102) and Mystik Dan (101) have previously achieved this number. These two horses placed first and second in the Arkansas Derby. mousse Had it not been for past human errors, they probably would have won the Derby. Sadly, he now missed his shot at the Preakness, again for reasons beyond his control.
Pedigree
Mugatu (Blofeld – Union Way, by Union Rags) – A
heavy uncle (Social Inclusion – “Expect Wonderful” by Tiz Wonderful) – BTS
seize freedom (Constitution – “Catch My Drift” by the Nile Pioneers) – A
mousse (Good Magic – Hoppa, Uncle Mo) – RAN
Mystic Dan (Golden Cents – Wife by Colonel John) – A
grab the gray (Arrogate – Smart Shopping, written by Smart Strike) – RAN
just steal (Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock) – RAN
tuscany gold (Madaria d’Oro, Valadorna by Karlin) – RAN
imagination (Into Mischief – “Magical Feeling”, Empire Maker) – bangtan boys
*A indicates Alydar with 5x pedigree
**RAN means bred native with 5x pedigree
***BTS indicates: Raise A Native is back somewhere
Three of the past four Preakness winners (Swiss Skydiver, 20 years old, Rombauer, 21 years old, and National Treasure, 23 years old) have a pedigree that includes the late great Alidar (my favorite horse of all time). there was. Alider, the sire of legendary stallion Raise a Native, dates back to 2009, and the past 15 Preakness winners are descendants of Raise of Native, all except last year’s winner Early Voting. has achieved results close to within the 5x pedigree. .
Raise a Native is a foundational stud who is a direct ancestor of 23 Kentucky Derby champions and a son of Native Dancer, the dam of Northern Dancer, perhaps the most influential stallion of the 20th century. It was a stallion. Three of his horses of the year (Mugatu, Catching Freedom and Mystic Dan) are descendants of Aridar and instantly earn him a raise at 5x. mousseSeize the Gray, Just Steel, and Tuscan Gold are not descendants of Alydar, but they do have Raise a Native in their 5x bloodline.
Uncle Heavy and Imagination are the only two horses in this limited selection that do not have a raise-a-native in 5×5 and are excluded from winning based on recent trends. But there are past names that indicate that Raise a Native traces back to an ancestor just outside of the 5x lineage, which shows how influential he continues to be despite his death in 1988. Showing. Uncle Heavy may have been out of a $1,700 mare. However, his paternal uncles had American Pharoah and Classic Empire, both of which performed well at Pimlico. Just say it.
2024 Preakness Stakes Best Bets
- 2024 Preakness Stakes Best Box Superfecta: Mystic Dan – Imagination – Catching Freedom – Tuscan Gold (5-9-3-8)
- 2024 Preakness Stakes Mudder Box Trifecta (if track is rated “sloppy”): Uncle Heavy – Mystic Dan – Just Steal (2-5-7)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter Momoko @momo_momo Discord @alydar1227 aka Gift Crooner. To learn more about Luke, check out his article archive.
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