March 12, 2024: Solar thermal power plant in Jiuquan, China. The power plant has 25,594 power plants. … [+]
The world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter is China (33%), followed by the United States (15%). Just a few years ago, discussions were about how the United States could reduce its own emissions by a few percentage points, at a time when China’s emissions were still rising and the country was planning to build hundreds of new coal-fired power plants. What was the use of doing so? China should reduce emissions first, right?
China would respond that its emissions were due to industrial growth and that it simply wanted to catch up with the United States (Figure 1). Then came criticism from the West for delaying net-zero emissions until 2060, rather than 2050 as most other countries had committed to, in compliance with the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Figure 1. Annual total global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production.
China appeared to be dragging its feet. But now, all this is changing, and the change is happening quickly. China is starting to do backflips. The design of China’s energy transition is analyzed by DNV in his 2024 (Reference 1). For example, DNV says that China’s electricity will increase from its current 30% renewable energy to 55% by 2035 and 88% by 2050. In 2022, approximately 40% of the world’s solar and wind power will be installed by China. And he DNV predicts this will continue until 2050.
As Table 1 shows, China’s energy mix plans and progress have been upended. Consider China’s primary energy supply. From 2030 to 2050, solar and wind power will increase from 7% to 41%, a sevenfold increase. At the same time, fossil fuels will be cut in half from 83% to 44%.
Just over 51% renewable electricity by 2030, jumping to 78% by 2050. Over the same period, there will be fewer power plants burning fossil fuels, which will also fall by almost half, from 46% to 24%. In both parts of the table, coal and oil are down sharply, while natural gas is roughly flat.
This also affects the US The US cannot rely on China to offset the expected drop in US oil due to the growth of electric vehicles.
Table 1. China’s energy transition progress predicted by DNV.
China’s energy supply will reach its peak by 2030
DNV predicts that China’s energy supply will decline by 20% between 2030 and 2050. This is completely unexpected. DNV believes this is due to large-scale decarbonisation, improved energy efficiency and a shrinking population of 100 million people. By 2050, China will be one of the most electrified regions in the world. The population decline will account for only 7% of the total population of 1.43 billion in 2024, which will not account for much of the total energy decline of 20%. What’s surprising, according to DNV, is that all this happens “despite the increasing prosperity of Chinese households.”
The goal of energy independence is key for China. DNV found that the country will still be importing significant amounts of oil and gas by 2050.
Although nuclear power generation is expected to double by 2050, the share of nuclear power generation in China is still only about 5%.
emissions
Another surprise, following Western concerns a few years ago, is that China’s carbon emissions are projected to peak by 2026 and reduce by 30% by 2040, according to DNV. is. In 2023, China produced one-third of the world’s emissions, which will be reduced by 70% by 2050 to just one-fifth of global emissions.
Key to this emissions reduction is replacing coal in power plants and other primary energy end uses.
China is close to achieving its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060, but DNV says it needs to further decarbonize its manufacturing sector.
Take-out
The world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter is China (33%), followed by the United States (15%). China appeared to be dragging its feet. But now this is starting to change, and it will change quickly.
China’s electricity will increase from 30% currently to renewable energy to 55% by 2035 and 88% by 2050.
In 2022, approximately 40% of the world’s solar and wind power will be installed by China. And DNV predicts this will continue until 2050.
From 2030 to 2050, solar and wind power will increase from 7% to 41%, a sevenfold increase. At the same time, fossil fuels will be cut in half from 83% to 44%.
Just over 51% renewable electricity by 2030 will jump to 78% by 2050. Over the same period, there will be fewer power plants burning fossil fuels, which will also fall by almost half, from 46% to 24%.
Coal and oil prices are plummeting, while natural gas prices are roughly flat. The U.S. cannot rely on China to offset the expected decline in U.S. domestic oil due to the growth of electric vehicles.
DNV predicts that China’s total energy supply will decline by 20% from 2030 to 2050. This is completely unexpected. By 2050, China will be one of the most electrified regions in the world.
In 2023, China produced one-third of the world’s emissions, which will be reduced by 70% by 2050 to just one-fifth of global emissions.
References
1. DNV: China’s Energy Transition Outlook 2024.
