Survey shows people’s confidence has dropped to pre-India-Pakistan conflict levels
ISLAMABAD:
Only one in every five citizens thinks that Pakistan’s economy is strong and just 16% are confident about investing in future, according to the results of an independent survey that also aligns with the recent official statements about the lack of any economic growth model.
The survey, conducted by Ipsos, states that people’s confidence that the country is heading in the right direction has again plunged to pre-Pakistan-India war levels. The war had suddenly boosted confidence and united a politically divided nation.
According to the survey, only 18% of Pakistanis believe the country’s economic condition is strong, with confidence higher among men, youth and the affluent.
Ipsos has released the survey a week after State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad said that the current economic growth model could not sustain a population of 250 million. Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) National Coordinator Lt General Sarfraz Ahmad also said that there was “no growth plan” and suggested the need for an export-led growth model.
Ipsos said that the perception of a strong economy has slightly increased from the last quarter but remains low compared to the post-conflict surge and is only at pre-conflict levels, albeit higher than the past many years.
The findings showed that 89% of Pakistanis don’t feel comfortable with household purchases, while men, urban and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) residents are slightly more comfortable. In K-P, this ratio is 18% compared to 10% in the rest of the country.
The segment of people feeling comfortable about making household purchases has declined since May 2025, but remains better than the same period of last year, according to Ipsos.
The results of the Ipsos Q4 2025 Consumer Confidence Index Survey reveal a complex picture of Pakistani economic sentiment, with both bright spots and persistent concerns, said Abdul Sattar Babar, Managing Director of Ipsos.
Inflation continues to be the foremost concern for Pakistanis, with 6% resurgence in its significance from the previous quarter, indicating that people are once again feeling the strain. After inflation, unemployment is the second most worrying issue, which is also in line with the recent official labour force survey that showed the joblessness rate at a 21-year high.
He said that inflation has re-emerged as a significant issue for the populace, contributing to a cautious approach to major purchases, as comfort in making such purchases has dwindled to a mere 5%.
However, there is a silver lining in the form of an unprecedented rise in personal financial optimism, notably led by the youth, suggesting the potential for economic resilience and growth, said Babar.
The optimism that surged post-Pakistan-India conflict seems unsustainable as overall confidence has plateaued. In terms of direction of the economy, three in 10 Pakistanis believe the country is on the right track, with optimism higher among men, the upper class, rural residents and in Punjab.
After reaching an all-time high in the second quarter of this year following the Pak-India conflict, the perception that the country is headed in the right direction has returned to pre-conflict levels, which is still higher than the previous five years.
The survey showed that one in three Pakistanis expects the economy to strengthen over the next six months, with optimism highest among youth, women, rural residents and upper & middle-income groups. Sindh is the most pessimistic province in this regard.
The optimism about the country’s economic outlook has been steadily improving since last year. What was overwhelmingly negative in August last year is now balanced, with opinions evenly divided between weaker, stronger and staying the same, it added.
Personal financial optimism has reached an all-time high for the second consecutive quarter, reversing the longstanding trend of negative sentiment exceeding positive. Around two among five Pakistanis now expect their personal financial conditions to improve in the next six months, with optimism highest among youth, women and upper & middle classes.
In terms of confidence in job security, about two in 10 Pakistanis feel secure in their jobs, with confidence highest among youth, middle-to-upper-middle income groups, men and residents of Punjab and K-P.
Confidence in job security has risen to 22% – the highest level since Ipsos began tracking consumer confidence, except for the 30% recorded during the optimism surge following the Pakistan-India conflict.
