Operation Epic Fury means new risks for markets

We hear it all the time on CNBC — markets hate uncertainty, and the events over the last 48 hours have changed the face of international politics in a way that will leave investors across the globe scrambling to understand the ramifications.

The coordinated strikes on Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces — Operation Epic Fury — have upended a global order in place since the end of World War II and triggered a new era of politics, not just in the Middle East, but between international allies and adversaries alike.

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How will markets and investors react? What are knee-jerk reactions versus longer-term adjustments that will need to be made to investment strategies?

Here are some of the assets to watch over the week.

Stock markets across the Middle East came under pressure on Sunday, in the first trading session for equities since the attack. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, Oman’s Muscat index and Bahrain’s exchange all traded in the red, while many of the other markets in the region did not open. Indexes in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Israel are set to resume trading Monday. The impact is expected to reverberate across global markets.

Oil markets will be the epicenter of volatility in the wake of the attacks. Traders are predicting that the Brent crude price will spike above $80 a barrel, according to Verisk Maplecroft. The outlook comes despite OPEC’s recent decision to increase output earlier and by more than previously planned.

Oil price volatility will be exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global shipping companies, including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and others, have suspended all vessel transit through the route until further notice. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have struck a number of oil tankers in the Gulf in retaliatory strikes. It was unclear when the strait would reopen. Some vessels were being rerouted around Africa, adding time and cost to shipments.

There has been a huge disruption to air travel, with almost all the Middle East region’s airspace closed since the strikes began. Over 1,500 flights were cancelled across the region Sunday, while flight-tracking site FlightAware said more than 19,000 flights had been delayed globally. Airlines are expected to remain under pressure as carriers work to reopen routes and arrange repatriation flights.

The strikes also intersected with the market’s broader focus on artificial intelligence. Until recently, investors had centered on AI’s potential to reshape industries worldwide. While that theme may seem far removed from events in Iran, there appears to be an overlap between the two. According to a report from Axios, the U.S. military used Anthropic’s Claude AI technology to support its strikes on Iran, even as the company was blacklisted by the Pentagon over how its technology is used. Anthropic has resisted Pentagon demands to allow unrestricted military use of Claude, and the Defense Department has moved to label the company a “supply chain risk” over that dispute.

What the rest of the week will bring remains unclear. President Donald Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen that U.S. military operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule.” In a market spooked by uncertainty, it will be the ‘known unknowns’ that keep investors on edge.