Former Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu During its visit to Pyongyang, North Korea proposed holding joint naval exercises with China, a desire born of a shared interest in signaling to the U.S. and its allies that it can create havoc in the Indo-Pacific region as a partner on a par with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Last year, China and Russia conducted a joint exercise called “Northern Interaction 2023,” and the two countries have been actively conducting patrols and exercises in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Aleutian Islands Russia conducted anti-submarine training in the South China Sea in January, detecting and neutralizing a mock enemy submarine.
Russia is gradually increasing its presence in the east as it modernizes its fleet by commissioning eight new warships, four nuclear submarines and a conventional submarine between 2022 and October 2023. During the same period, Russia’s Pacific Fleet conducted eight strategic-level naval exercises.
03:05
Putin, Kim Jong Un sign ‘strongest ever’ defense treaty amid rising tensions with the West
Putin, Kim Jong Un sign ‘strongest ever’ defense treaty amid rising tensions with the West
In the event of a conflict between the United States and China, the agreement between North Korea and Beijing American base Japan and South Korea are direct targets. This potential flashpoint, combined with possible retaliation against North Korea by the United States and its allies, could force Russia to adhere to its agreement with North Korea and set the stage for a dangerous escalation.
The human toll in South Korea alone could be devastating: South Korea’s 2016 Defense White Paper estimated that the United States would need to send 690,000 troops to South Korea, far exceeding the peak levels of U.S. troops in Afghanistan (98,000) and Iraq (170,000). North Korean attack In South Korea, it is estimated that 100,000 casualties could occur within 48 hours if the capital, Seoul, were targeted, with expected casualties in South Korea and the United States reaching 200,000 to 300,000 within the first 90 days.
This does not take into account the casualties that could be suffered by U.S. forces and allies in the South China Sea, where fighting would likely be concentrated. Such a development would require a multi-layered response and would require increased coordination and intelligence sharing among China, Russia, and North Korea, further complicating the situation in the U.S. military’s operating area.
This expanded conflict area encompasses 978,000 square kilometers of potential combat area in the Sea of Japan plus 3.69 million square kilometers of potential war zone in the South China Sea, which is likely to strain the resources of the United States and its allies.
North Korea’s navy currently consists of small, fast boats with limited ability to conduct deep-sea operations, but a policy shift by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could see the navy play a larger role in nuclear deterrence, including by deploying underwater drones, warships and the country’s first submarine-launched submarine. Operational missile submarines.
China is currently The world’s largest naval fleetBut a lack of battlefield experience hinders operational readiness. Russia’s extensive naval experience, particularly from the Soviet era, would be vital to both nations and could aid their ability to counter any operation by the U.S.-led coalition.
Russian President Putin article Writing in the North’s state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper, he accused the United States of promoting double standards by imposing a rules-based order on other countries while they pursue their own policies and face outside pressure.
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North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
Washington’s reliance on groupings like the Quad and Aksu could be counterproductive: By sidelining diplomacy, the United States has pushed Russia, China and North Korea into closer ties. A stronger allianceThe strategy appears to have backfired, straining U.S. resources and creating a multi-pronged challenge that could destabilize the Indo-Pacific region.
While the United States and its allies strive to maintain the status quo, our adversaries are united in their ambition to build a multipolar world. U.S. policies intended to isolate our adversaries have instead consolidated them into blocs that Washington is ill-equipped to deal with.
These new alliances that challenge the US-led world order are more united in their ambition to create a multipolar world and resist US dominance than the US and its allies that seek to maintain the status quo. It is time for the US to rethink its approach and embrace diplomacy based on mutual respect and peaceful coexistence.
Otherwise, China will be forced to choose between saving Europe, maintaining its influence in the Middle East, and engaging in the vast Indo-Pacific region, where it faces a technologically advanced emerging superpower: China, historic adversaries Russia and North Korea, and regimes of greater depth and capability than the world needs to know about.
Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a Masters in International Relations from Deakin University, Australia.
