Unlikely. China has focused on the strategic value of North Korea as a buffer state and has consistently demonstrated its lack of ability and willingness to deter or dismantle North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. This stance is consistent with “Strategic patience”is having a serious adverse effect on China’s interests.
of Six-Party Talks Summits between the U.S. and North Korea in the 2000s that attempted to negotiate an end to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program ultimately collapsed due to competing interests, North Korean deception, and strategic distrust among the five countries – South Korea, the United States, Japan, China and Russia.
The strategic patience of world powers allowed North Korea to become a de facto nuclear power in the 2010s, while China watched from the sidelines.
02:44
Increasing Risk: How North Korea Became a Nuclear Power
Increasing Risk: How North Korea Became a Nuclear Power
China has neither sought to give North Korea an advantage in the so-called hegemony competition with the U.S. nor violated North Korean sovereignty. The other four countries wanted to deter or dismantle North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, but like China, they were ineffective.
But Russia’s new strategic view on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities opened a Pandora’s box. The change became clear when reports emerged that North Korea was conducting a major nuclear test. Conventional arms exports They were sent to Russia for use on the Ukrainian front, a charge that Moscow and Pyongyang deny.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that North Korea “has its own nuclear umbrella.” Russia is reportedly already providing assistance to North Korea with missile delivery systems, and may provide North Korea with nuclear submarines, hypersonic missiles, and fifth-generation fighter jets, in addition to supporting its nuclear program.
With this change, Russia is no longer aligned with China, especially in this key area of its security strategy. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly urged Putin not to visit North Korea so soon after his visit. Visit to China in MayChina wanted to avoid being seen as allied with North Korea or in league with the two countries, so Putin visited Pyongyang. one month laterClearly, China could not exert any more influence over Russia.
While China is far more important to North Korea in terms of economic and security interests, Russia has become crucial to Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
03:05
Putin, Kim Jong Un sign ‘strongest ever’ defense treaty amid rising tensions with the West
Putin, Kim Jong Un sign ‘strongest ever’ defense treaty amid rising tensions with the West
Of the remaining four countries in the six-party talks, South Korea and Japan have positions that differ from those of the United States and China, highlighting the gap between nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states.
In South Korea, public opinion Near boiling point In response to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea, people are beginning to call for the country to become nuclear-armed.
The tensions are partly due to a defense treaty between Russia and North Korea that provides a nuclear shield, or effectively a nuclear umbrella, threatening not only South Korea but also Japan, and creating favorable conditions for North Korea to further its nuclear program. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Systemand possibly The seventh nuclear test.
As far as we know, Pyongyang and Moscow US Presidential Election By November, the nuclear balance in Northeast Asia had completely collapsed, with North Korea using its nuclear capabilities against the United States, South Korea, Japan, and China. South Korea, like Japan, is under intense pressure to take aggressive action.
02:12
North Korea steps up missile launches, Tokyo residents take part in evacuation drills
North Korea steps up missile launches, Tokyo residents take part in evacuation drills
This situation cannot be addressed by merely deploying U.S. troops every now and then. Strategic Assets And the deterrent effect offered by the newly established Nuclear Consultative Group remains in doubt. The potential domino effect of nuclear proliferation is one of the most serious global security threats originating from China.
The convergence of Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security is becoming a reality. Can be considered It has already supplied lethal weapons to Ukraine. Key Role As NATO strengthens its military power against Russia through the sale of large quantities of advanced conventional weapons, Japan is likely to strengthen its anti-Russian policy.
02:01
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
It seems naive for China to have failed to foresee that North Korea’s nuclear capabilities would become a major destabilizing factor not only in Northeast Asia but also in the Indo-Pacific region and the world as a whole. This oversight, which is causing great damage to China’s global security strategy, represents yet another failure of strategic foresight.
But a North Korean nuclear test would have more impacts on northeastern China. China, which once viewed North Korea as a junior security partner or even a vassal state, is now unable to launch a military attack in the worst case scenario. At the same time, the idea of a nuclear war breaking out in East Asia suddenly seems more feasible.
The emergence of a quasi-alliance between North Korea and Russia has further complicated the regional security environment. Instead of achieving a grand unification of mainland China and Russia, TaiwanBeijing’s security strategy is increasingly at risk: Far from expanding, China is struggling to defend itself.
So, what will China do?
Woo-Yell Paik is professor of international relations and the College of Political Science at Yonsei University in Seoul, vice director of the Yonsei University Institute of North Korean Studies, and director of the Center for Security Strategy at the Institute of Aerospace and Space Sciences.
