Frank Bruni, a contributing reporter for Opinion magazine, hosted an online and written conversation with Josh Barro, who writes the newsletter “Very Serious,” and Olivia Nuzzi, New York magazine’s Washington correspondent, in which they joked and bickered about the possible political ramifications of convicting Trump.
Frank Bruni: Josh, Olivia, great to see you. I want to start with Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. What happens on November 5th has as much to do with how Biden spends the next few months as it does with Trump, and Biden is getting all kinds of conflicting advice.
What’s the best balance between taking on “convicted criminals” and focusing on the everyday concerns of less partisan, less engaged voters? I think Biden needs to be very careful not to overdo it on the criminal part. Voters are well aware of Trump’s status, his illegal activities, and, um, his character. What are your thoughts?
Josh Barro: As Nate Cohn has detailed in The New York Times, a feature of this race is that Biden’s support has remained strong among active voters but has dropped significantly over the past four years among less active Americans. Biden’s drop in support is largely due to a worsening view of him among people who did not vote in the 2020 election. So Biden’s big challenge is that he needs to really reach out to people who are not interested in politics and who are likely not going to listen to any message he puts out.
Most disengaged voters probably didn’t follow the trial closely or at all. For them, it matters that Trump is a convicted felon. I’m not sure they need to hear that from Biden himself. That could be a message spread by paid media, the Biden campaign, or associated lobbying groups.
Bruni: Hmm, Josh, I don’t know. Being isolated is one thing, living off the grid is another. Do we really need to remind you that Trump is a felon?
Olivia Nuzzi: I agree, Frank. I don’t think the details of the trial are all that important to the story here. Whether you were listening intently to the coverage on cable or just catching the gist as you scrolled through your news feed, the implications about Trump’s actions are the same.
Bruni: How much trust do you have in Biden and his aides to find and chart the wisest path forward — not just with the criminal Trump, but with everything else, too? Most leading Democrats I’ve spoken to are panic-concerned about how incompetent Biden’s campaign is. Is a major campaign revamp necessary?
Baro: Biden’s big political problem is the fundamentals of the economy. There is serious inflation, interest rates are rising dramatically, and people are unhappy with that. People see Biden lagging a little behind Trump, and they see Biden as a talk President Trump’s message on the economy is wrong and we need a new message. I don’t see anything wrong with the message. The problem is what state of the economy President Trump should be communicating. It’s too late to do much to change the inflation and interest rate situation before the election.
Nuzzi: The perennial problem for candidates running against Donald Trump is that Trump photosynthesizes all the attention, becoming bigger and stronger and blocking out the sun for everyone around him. Because Trump is so good at defining the terms of the conversation and living in his own reality, none of this matters as much as it does for other candidates.
Bruni: Politics aside, the Republican front-runner and currently leading in many 2024 polls, the former president, is a convicted felon, and few people think that’s the bottom line in this election. How do you feel about America, not just as a journalist, but as an American?
Baro: As a very engaged voter, I personally do not feel that this ruling gave us any new or significant information about Donald Trump. Falsifying business records to further a scheme to bribe porn stars is It ranks in the top 50 of his most despicable acts – acts that happen to be the ones he was charged with and convicted of.
America is a great, prosperous country where people live good lives and pursue their dreams, and when I think about this country, I try not to get too depressed by political events.
Bruni: What you say about America is important. I have repeatedly argued for some time now that one of our problems is an excessive pessimism about the country. We have a long way to go toward a more perfect union, but clearly there is still a wave of people who want to be here. And that’s no coincidence.
Nuzzi: I think everything about Trump’s alleged actions and trial is quintessentially American. I grew up during the George W. Bush era, watching “The Apprentice” in a culture heavily influenced by pornography and crime, and none of it feels out of place. I think the big lesson from President Trump is that American institutions are very strong and can withstand the test of political leadership. If he is reelected, in four years we will be similarly marveling at the wisdom of our Founding Fathers.
Bruni: My intuition is that the June 27 debate will not take place. It was scheduled before the verdict, the terms were largely set and preferred by the Biden campaign, and Trump’s rants, whining, and claims that the whole world is rigged against him are not conducive to debate attendance and discussion. What do you two think?
Baro: There’s no way the debates will be canceled. Trump clearly wants debates — more than the two agreed to with the Biden campaign. Trump won’t skip a debate simply because he doesn’t like the structure, and Biden can’t be allowed to shy away from a debate that’s already been agreed to — that would reinforce the idea that Biden is too old for such a basic political task.
Nuzzi: Frank, I know you’re asking the question here, but can you elaborate on why you think that might not end up happening?
Bruni: What I’m saying is that Trump doesn’t operate according to normal logic or the laws of politics. He makes up his own rules, just as he creates his own reality. So it somehow seems right to expect the unexpected. He’s not so much campaigning as throwing a sustained tantrum. I’m just curious to see what form that tantrum will take next.
Nuzzi: One scenario is certainly conceivable in which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes the stage, the Biden campaign is furious, says he only agreed to a one-on-one debate with Trump, withdraws, and CNN is left to decide whether to host a Trump-Kennedy debate. Whatever happens to CNN, it seems likely that Trump and Kennedy will debate on another platform. If Biden doesn’t attend those debates, he could repeat the success of his 2020 “basement strategy,” in which he barely made appearances during the pandemic. Or he could suffer for giving other candidates a chance to negatively evaluate him while he was away, and his absence could lead to the perception that he’s not good enough yet.
Bruni: Trump is due to be sentenced just days before the Republican National Convention begins. Given his prospects for victory in November, is it best to wait until he is sentenced, or is it best to wait until he is sentenced? do not have Will you receive a prison sentence? By severity or by leniency?
Baro: A conviction and punishment may not hurt Trump politically, but it is a bit puzzling that some would argue it would help him. Who are the people who had no intention of voting for Trump, but who believe he is being unfairly punished and so decide to vote for him?
Republican pollster Echelon Insights ran a very interesting poll shortly after the ruling came out. They re-contacted respondents who had already been surveyed about the election and asked them again about their voting intentions. 6% of respondents said they would change their vote because of the ruling. Most of them said they would change their vote to vote against Trump. But Echelon had surveyed these same people before, and they know that all of the respondents who said they would change their vote to Trump because of the ruling had previously told Echelon they would vote for Trump.
Bruni: How, if at all, will this conviction affect President Trump’s pick for vice president?
Baro: I don’t think the guilty verdict itself is important, but the list of people who spoke on Trump’s behalf outside the courtroom gives us an idea of who Trump thinks he could be picked. My sense from the reports is that Trump would likely pick North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who is practical and wealthy and would not overwhelm Trump much.
Nuzzi: The selection process seems to be unfolding much more publicly this time around than in 2016. Trump is using his years of experience as a game show host to ratchet up the suspense. This is a little different to what I think people mean when they say campaigns are about storytelling, but it’s a Trumpian version of that. The Trump campaign, like the Trump administration, is about drama and cliffhangers and picking fighters. My guess is that Trump will pick J.D. Vance, but I also think he may end up being off the shortlist entirely.
Bruni: I’m not making any predictions. Just an observation. If you want to be Trump’s VP, you shouldn’t be VP. It’s like the Naval Observatory’s version of a Catch-22.
Baro: Nearly one-third of vice presidents have become president. If you’re running for an obese president in his late 70s, your chances are even higher. For someone who’s dreamed of becoming president since he was in the womb, the offer would be hard to turn down, even if he had reason to fear that a mob of his supporters might try to hang him at the Capitol.
Bruni: Hunter Biden’s trial began this week, and Trump’s conviction more Republicans are watching. I suspect Fox News will portray Hunter as Vladimir Putin, accused of war crimes in Ukraine. Will this trial have any impact on the presidential election?
Nuzzi: Trump tried hard in 2020 to paint Hunter Biden as a surrogate enemy. I’ve always found the focus on Hunter’s admitted and well-documented struggle with addiction to be not only rather jarring, but a strategic political mistake. Most Americans know someone who has suffered from or died from addiction. Trump’s attempt to weaponize this part of Hunter’s life against his father didn’t work.
Baro: The Hunter Biden situation is very sad. Any voter who is willing to vote for either candidate will feel sad. I don’t think it’s important to the campaign.
Bruni: In 2020, the Biden campaign naturally touted prominent Republicans and former Republicans who supported him. Within that category, who have not publicly supported Biden thus far? Who would be the wisest to attack?
Baro: The voters who care about this issue are the highly engaged voters, and Biden already has their support. A better surrogate for Biden would be a non-political figure like Mark Cuban, who is more likely to appeal to less engaged voters.
Nuzzi: Aim for the moon and chase the W. Why not?
Bruni: Finally, I know you’re avoiding this topic, but I have to ask: Perhaps you want to live a bold and risky life. Today, you Forced Betting large sums of money on who will win on November 5. You choose…
Baro: Am I trying to hedge my position? That is, should I bet on what I think is a bad outcome (Trump)?
Nuzzi: Frank! I’m not a gambling girl.
Bruni: Olivia, I admire you and thank you and Josh, your wisdom is invaluable and appreciated.
Frank Bruni is a professor of journalism and public policy at Duke University, author of “The Age of Grievance,” and an opinion contributor. He writes a weekly email newsletter.
Josh Barro is the writer of the newsletter “Very Serious” and the host of the podcast “Serious Trouble.” Olivia Nuzzi is Washington correspondent for New York magazine.
Source photo by Kevin Dietsch and PhotoQuest via Getty Images, pool photo by Curtis Means.
