As her three-year term as the U.S. representative to Taiwan comes to an end, Sandra Oudkirk’s parting advice is not to panic about China’s bellicose words and actions, but not to become numb to the risks.
Oudkirk has served as Washington’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan at a time when Taiwan’s democracy has become a crucible of tension between Washington and Beijing, with China insisting that Taiwan is its territory and that it must accept unification, even by force, if Beijing’s leaders deem it necessary.
At times, there has also been some tension among Taiwanese and U.S. politicians, officials and experts over what combination of tactics — what military purchases, what reassuring or uncompromising words to Beijing, what steps with other democracies — could best reduce the risk of war.
Oudkirk, who is leaving his post in Taipei early next month, suggested Taiwan and its partners needed to avoid hysteria and complacency and find a steady path forward.
“I get asked all the time how dangerous Taiwan is. You know, Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world,” she said, referring to talk of imminent danger and war. “Sometimes a short audio recording doesn’t fully capture the reality.”
But she added about China: “When the government, the country, the leaders tell us what they’re thinking, what they’re planning, we should listen to them.”
Despite decades of fierce criticism from Beijing, many Taiwanese pay little attention. Chinese military drills and airspace violations have intensified, but still rarely unsettle the public. A majority of Taiwanese also say they believe the United States would intervene if China really threatened to invade.
But that view is not universal among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical of America’s commitment and intentions.
The United States is committed by law to help Taiwan defend itself and has the option to send in U.S. troops if China tries to take over the island by force. Some U.S. military commanders and experts have said the possibility of an invasion is looming; some years ago, some even suggested 2027 as a time frame when China might take military action. But Biden administration officials say no clear deadline has been given by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Still, China’s pressure on the island, located about 100 miles off Taiwan’s coast, has intensified during and after Mr. Oudkirk’s tenure as head of the U.S. mission to Taiwan.
Her first consular post was in Taiwan in 1992 – when the island was emerging from decades of martial law and China was much poorer and less well-armed – and she subsequently served in Dublin, Istanbul and Beijing.
Oudkirk became Taiwan’s de facto ambassador in mid-2021. Months later, Russia invaded Ukraine, deepening Taiwan’s concerns that China would make a similar military gamble. In August 2022, the Chinese military conducted its largest-ever drills around Taiwan, which Beijing said was in retaliation for a visit to Taipei by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Beijing’s much-disliked Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election this year and took office in May, after which Chinese military drills were carried out again near Taiwan, drawing fierce criticism from Beijing. Lai said at the time that he wanted to maintain the status quo for Taiwan – self-governing but short of formally declaring independence. Chinese authorities responded with intense public distrust.
“The May 20 speech was an open declaration of Taiwan independence from start to finish,” Lt. Gen. He Lei, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, said in a recent interview while in Singapore for a conference. “Downsizing further down the path to Taiwan independence now will only bring even greater danger to the other side of the Taiwan Strait.”
The U.S. mission, a concrete-and-steel structure on a hillside northeast of Taipei, has become a symbol of growing cooperation between Taiwan and Washington to counter China’s warnings and growing influence.
Its official name is the “Taiwan American Institute,” sounding more like a language school than a diplomatic mission. The vague name is a concession to the fact that the United States ended formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan when U.S. recognition shifted to Beijing in 1979.
For many years, the American Society’s offices were housed in crowded downtown Taipei offices with little official presence: The society tried to keep a low profile and did not regularly fly the American flag for decades.
That’s changed now. The new institute building, built in 2019, is vast, and staff numbers have risen to 585 from 488 in 2019, according to the public affairs office. The American flag now flies proudly atop the building.
“These are examples of how U.S.-Taiwan relations have evolved,” Oudkirk’s predecessor, Brent Christensen, director of the American Institute for Taiwan Studies and now professor at Brigham Young University, said in an interview.
“A lot of it depends on precedent,” Christensen said, “but the Trump administration didn’t really care about precedent, so this was a good opportunity to go beyond some of these self-imposed limitations.”
Oudkirk said that during his three years as director, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a particularly turning point for Taiwan and for strengthening ties with the United States.
“Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression has been big news here, especially in 2022,” she said. “It’s really generated a lot of public attention and discussion of, ‘What does this mean for Taiwan?'”
Taiwan’s former president, Tsai Ing-wen, extended military service for men from four months to one year in 2022. Taiwan is also ordering mobile missiles and other agile weaponry that could deter Chinese attacks.
“The level of strategic integration between Taiwan and the United States is the highest since the two countries severed diplomatic ties in 1979,” said Guo Yu-ren, a political science professor at National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan.
Not all Taiwanese people are happy about this closer relationship. During Oudkirk’s time as president, locals wereE-mailSkepticism of the United States is growing, especially among voters who believe that Taiwan and Washington are needlessly antagonizing Beijing.
Some of the mistrust about U.S. intentions and capabilities to support Taiwan reflects Chinese intelligence efforts to sow doubt, but some reflects the normal ebb and flow of disagreements in democracies, Oudkirk said.
Trump has been asked many questions about whether the upcoming US elections will lead to a shift in American support, and in that regard he has been typical Trumpian diplomacy.
“In the United States, unlike most other foreign policy and domestic policy issues, there is broad bipartisan agreement on Taiwan policy,” she told reporters at her exit press conference on Friday. “So I don’t think the election is going to necessarily change that.”
