Something sinister is happening in Jammu.
While any act of terrorism is horrific and any loss of soldier lives on the front line is tragic, the nature of this attack suggests the challenge is different to the norm to which security forces are accustomed.
“Sniper-like military precision” are the words used by veterans and counterinsurgency heroes who fought terrorists in these mountains. As the coffin of a young man in his early twenties returns to his distraught but calm parents, experts say something is amiss. The soldiers were adequately protected by bulletproof vests and helmets, but the intruders were able to target and fire at relatively small exposed areas.
The weapons used by terrorists are also very sophisticated and it is not easy to intercept their internal communications. Also, the forests of Pir Panjal provide camouflage and tactical heights from which terrorists can launch ambushes on Army soldiers. Since December 2021, 48 soldiers have been killed in action in Jammu region alone, 11 of them in 2024. More soldiers have been killed than terrorists in Jammu this year.
The Kashmir Tigers, a shadow wing of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), has claimed responsibility for these attacks. That in itself means little: the name itself reflects a tactical attempt to give the group a political rather than religious dimension. But this is a superficial mask that may hide the darker reality that is taking place.
Let us remember that we are just a few days away from the 25th anniversary of the Kargil War that took place between India and Pakistan in 1999. July 26 is celebrated every year as Vijay Diwas and this year marks a special occasion. Let us also remember the role played by the Northern Light Infantry of the Pakistan Army in this war. In a military blunder of the worst kind, the Pakistan Army did not acknowledge these soldiers initially and their burial and last rites were performed by the Indian Army, but this is a separate issue.
If publicity is oxygen for terrorists, there is little coincidence in the timing of their violence. Before the ambush in Doda, a terror attack in Kathua, Jammu, took place on the same day that Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani was eliminated by our security forces in 2016. As the Kargil anniversary approaches, retired military veterans like Lt. Gen. Ata Hasnain have warned that Pakistan may be plotting “something big” to change the headlines and mood of the commemorative week.
There also seems to be enough intelligence to indicate that the Pakistani army is directly involved, and not just in the traditional sense that the Pakistani deep state is protecting Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar as security assets against India. All of the veterans and police officers I spoke to, some of whom chose to be public and some who openly admitted to it, believe that the guerrilla operations in Jammu were the work of highly trained infantry and special forces soldiers.
In other words, it may not only be hired gun-toting mercenaries and ideologically brainwashed terrorists who are infiltrating Indian territory. Alongside them, it is clear that Pakistani regulars, who appear to have recently retired, are also a threat. Some veterans say that the involvement of active Pakistani soldiers cannot be ruled out. Their traces are somehow still in this operation.
So what are the objectives? I can think of a few. To shift the centre of gravity of the counter-insurgency to Jammu. To put pressure on the security grid. Let us not forget that eastern Ladakh is also much more heavily militarised than it was a few years ago, due to the Chinese threat. There will now be pressure to deploy more troops in the mountains of Jammu. To eclipse the headlines of the week on the Kargil issue. To challenge the political discourse on the abrogation of Article 370. The record turnout in the Lok Sabha elections in the Kashmir Valley goes against all traditional positions of Pakistan. And of course, to delay the state assembly elections. But as Lt. Gen. Hasnain points out, there were 1,650 terrorist incidents in 2002, and yet the watershed state assembly elections were held. Anything else will play into the terrorists’ hands.
Can Pakistan, with its internal turmoil and economic fallout, survive another major conflict with India? Is China aiding and abetting this plan? And how will India respond? These are no longer hypothetical questions as the Jammu and Kashmir conflict takes a new turn.
Barkha Dutt is an award-winning journalist and author. The opinions expressed here are personal.
