When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the constituent republics known as the Central Asian Republics (CARs) declared full independence as sovereign states. Neighboring Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan (and to a lesser extent Turkey) saw a vacuum and imposed Islamic policies on the Central Asian region.
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For example, Saudi Arabia has offered to distribute millions of copies of the Quran and Pakistan has offered to open thousands of religious schools to spread true Islam to its people, but Iran, due to sectarian restrictions, has limited its activities to Tajikistan, a country that it found had a small Shiite population.
However, as soon as they realized how the Central Asian countries had transformed under Soviet rule into modern, progressive and scientific societies both ideologically and practically, they quietly reversed course, fearing that contact with the Central Asian countries would bring disaster to conservatism at home.
A Tajik professor explained this in a cryptic sentence: “When we realized that the Muslims were trying to strangle us, we cut their hands.”
Casa 1000
According to the Tajikistan Foreign Ministry website, Pakistan established its embassy in Dushanbe on June 6, 1992.
In the 31 years since diplomatic relations were established, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahman has visited Pakistan eight times, and Pakistani presidents and prime ministers have also routinely visited Dushanbe to discuss bilateral relations on a range of topics.
CASA-1000 aims to connect the energy systems of Central and South Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) and establish an electricity trading mechanism based on international standards. The project is expected to generate approximately 1,000-1,300 megawatts of electricity per year for export to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Radio Free Europe reported on January 3, 2012 that Tajikistan’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Zubaidullo Zubaidov, met with Speaker of the Senate of Pakistan’s Parliament, Fahmida Mirza, in Islamabad on January 2 to discuss the CASA 1000 project.
The project, which is backed by the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, aims to supply electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan from hydroelectric plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Zubaidov said Tajikistan wants to start exporting electricity to Pakistan within the framework of CASA 1000, but is seeking to complete work on the Tajikistani part of the project.
But the massive Rogun project is in financial difficulty: an estimated $950 million is still needed to fund the project, about 25% of which ($251 million) is needed to build a transmission line through Tajikistan.
Hydropower is seen as a potential solution to Tajikistan’s chronic electricity shortage. There is also sufficient supply for export.
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Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, on his way to Astana to attend the SCO summit, made a one-day stopover in Dushanbe and met with the Tajik President on various bilateral issues, including the Rogoun project. The discussions between the two leaders focused on the implementation of agreements reached during the Tajik President’s visit to Pakistan two years ago.
The July 1 issue of The Times of Central Asia reported: Islamabad has expressed interest in expediting the start of the CASA-1000 energy project and expanding cooperation in the fields of transportation and security.
Pakistan has a power deficit of about 7,000MW. In return, Tajikistan wants access to the ports of Gwadar and Karachi. In December 2022, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahman visited Islamabad and signed eight documents at the end of negotiations with the Pakistani prime minister.
Connectivity
The July 2 edition of the Times of Central Asia newspaper commented on Tajikistan-Pakistan relations from a historical perspective, quoting Alexander Vorobyov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies and director of the Public Diplomacy Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying, “Indeed, Tajikistan’s intelligence services have not historically had friendly relations with Pakistan, while Pakistani intelligence services have supported various extremist groups in Afghanistan. But times are changing. Moreover, it is noteworthy that today Pakistan is cooperating closely with China economically and politically, and there is also active cooperation between China and Dushanbe.”
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According to the researcher, improved relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will help improve Tajikistan’s transport connectivity with the outside world and provide access to South Asia, as the authorities are actively promoting the “Tirmiz-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar” trans-Afghan railway project. A shorter route connecting Dushanbe in Tajikistan to the Indian Ocean is through Afghanistan to Karachi or Gwadar, about 2,720 km away. Meanwhile, it is 3,400 km to Bandar Abbas, an Iranian port on the Strait of Hormuz.
The 350-km Wakhan Corridor in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province is a narrow strip of land that separates Pakistan from Tajikistan. Experts believe that if stability and security in Afghanistan is ensured, Pakistan has every chance of becoming a transport hub for the Central Asian countries.
However, given Pakistan’s anti-Taliban policy and its stubbornness in not weakening the Durand Line, it is likely to lose its centrality as a transit point to Central Asia.
Pakistan’s interests in Central Asia are fundamentally energy, and Islamabad is pushing ahead with several major transport projects in the region that will open up access to global markets.
However, as Pakistan’s former Deputy Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar stated in February 2023, the situation in Afghanistan is preventing Pakistan from realizing its potential in its relations with Central Asia.
She stressed the need to complete the CASA-1000 project. The World Bank stopped funding the project after the Taliban took power in Kabul. However, implementation of CASA-1000 resumed in May 2024 with World Bank funding.
Cooperation between Pakistan and Central Asia appears to be improving. Islamabad wants to strengthen trade ties and a Joint Economic Commission has been established. Trade volume between Pakistan and Tajikistan is gradually increasing. However, Pakistan is not an ideal partner for the former Soviet republics. Countries plunged into economic and political turmoil.
- Prof. KN Pandita (Padma Shri) is former director of the Kashmir Centre for Central Asian Studies. University.
- This article contains the personal views of the author and does not in any way reflect the policy, views or opinions of Eurasian Times.
- The author can be contacted at knp627 (at) gmail.com.
