Test plot of Akbar 2019 wheat grown in Pakistan.Photo: Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad
Pakistan’s 2023-24 wheat harvest began about a month ago, and although production is expected to reach record levels thanks to an increase in planted area last fall, initial production figures announced by the government It is expected that the amount will not be reached. the goal.
Wheat is the most important crop for Pakistan, both in terms of food security and total acreage. In terms of food security, wheat accounts for 70 percent of the nation’s annual caloric intake. Almost 40% or 9.12 million hectares (Mha) of the total wheat acreage was sown to wheat in October, November and December last year for the 2024 harvest. This is an increase on the 8.86Mha planted in 2022 for harvest in 2023 and slightly higher than the 9Mha a year ago.
Fertilizer is not optimal
However, cumulative fertilizer purchases by farmers during the growing season are 3.2% lower than last year. Phosphate and potash sales increased by 8.3% and he 45.9% respectively, while nitrogen sales decreased by 6.4% due to price hikes.
Unscrupulous manipulation of urea prices has doubled the price of essential crop inputs during the growing season. In addition to persistently high urea prices, a dry December and January will likely result in less-than-ideal application rates during a critical period of the crop cycle, leading to lower yields for this crop.
As a result, Pakistan’s wheat production for the 2024-25 season (May-April) is expected to be lower than the government’s ambitious early season forecast of 32.11 million tonnes (MT). Nevertheless, the increase is still expected to be a record 28.8 million tons due to increased use of certified seeds and improvements in irrigation efficiency, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. The current harvest forecast is 2.1% higher than last year’s harvest of 28.2 million tonnes and 9.1% higher than the 2022 harvest of 26.2 million tonnes.
Disease and pest reduction
Rust, a fungal plant pathogen, has traditionally been a seasonal yield-limiting factor for wheat crops in Pakistan. Below-average rainfall in December and January, reduced humidity within the crop canopy, and high adoption of certified seeds with rust-resistant properties resulted in significant rust outbreaks during the reproductive period. Turns out it wasn’t reported. The crop cycle usually has the greatest impact on yield. Similarly, there have been no reports of locust or other serious pest outbreaks this year, each contributing to the current record production forecast.
breeding highlights
One of the success stories in Pakistan’s wheat breeding program is the new biofortified variety Akbar 2019. This zinc-rich variety is known for its increased nutritional value, increased disease resistance, and high yield potential. Last autumn’s planting program dedicated around 42% of the country’s wheat area to Akbar 2019, with final production expected to reach 15 million tonnes once the current harvest campaign is complete.
The two major wheat-producing provinces are Sindh, which occupies about 13% of the total area, and Punjab, which occupies about 74% of the total area. Harvesting has been completed in most districts of Sindh, while harvest is increasing in the southern districts of Punjab. Widespread rains shortly after harvest began in Punjab have delayed field work in the past few weeks, leading to a decline in quality, but are not expected to have a material impact on final production at this stage. It has been.
Official wheat intervention prices are set at the state level and will remain unchanged for the 2024 crop compared to last season. In Punjab, it currently stands at Rs 3,900 (A$545/tonne) per 40kg bag, while the Sindh government has set the price at Rs 4,000 ($559/tonne) per 40kg bag. There is. Nevertheless, Pakistani farmers remain dissatisfied, threatening protests and raising support prices to 5,000 rupees per 40kg bag ($700 per tonne) as well as raising the procurement price for this crop. They are calling for the target to be raised from 2 million tons to 5 million tons.
consumption is high
Pakistan’s per capita wheat consumption is approximately 124 kg per year, one of the highest in the world. Domestic demand is expected to increase by 2.3% to 30.9 million tonnes in 2024-25 due to population growth along with consumer preference for wheat-based products. The total use by the feed industry was only 1.9 million tons, or 6.1% of the total demand, with the poultry sector accounting for more than 80% of the decline.
This season’s wheat imports reached 2.8 million tons by the end of February, with another 500,000 tons exported in March. The government suspended imports in early April, forecasting that the total would be 3.3 million tons in 2023-24. About 70% of imports came from Russia, up from less than 25% a year earlier, and some recent purchases were settled in UAE dirhams. The average landing price of US$290/t (A$450/t) is significantly lower than the government’s domestic intervention price of around US$350/t (A$545/t).
Changes in trade policy
Ahead of the 2023-24 marketing year, the state-run Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has purchased most of the country’s wheat import requirements. Things changed last July when the government allowed the private sector to import wheat duty-free. However, private sector import approvals were reportedly suspended as of March 31, and are not yet expected to be reinstated during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The FAS said wheat carry-in stocks for the 2024-25 season will be very close to the record high of 4.7 million tonnes, up from 3.9 million tonnes this season and below the government’s minimum strategic reserve requirement of 2.5 million tonnes. We expect it to significantly exceed that. Higher-than-average opening stocks, combined with record production prospects, mean wheat imports are likely to decline significantly to 1 million tonnes in 2024-2025. However, any changes in final crop size from this harvest are likely to reflect similar and opposite changes in final import requirements in 2024-2025.
Apart from private sector imports, wheat production and marketing in Pakistan continues to be largely controlled by the government. Guaranteed minimum support prices administered on a regional basis provide incentives for farmers to plant wheat seasonally. The wheat is then sold to millers at a set price, with the government strictly controlling quantity, price, and timing of shipment.
However, as demand continues to grow rapidly due to population growth and a burgeoning middle class, a lack of foreign exchange reserves to finance wheat imports is making it difficult to meet future food security priorities. may become a hindrance.
