The Pakistani government has announced plans to ban the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party led by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan and to bring sedition charges against him and former President Arif Alvi, who is seen as close to Khan.
The controversial decision drew criticism and raised concerns about its impact on the country’s political stability, but was likely triggered by the PTI’s ongoing conflict with state institutions, particularly the powerful military. The PTI’s anti-military rhetoric has even directly targeted the military’s top leadership through social media platforms. These attacks have intensified since the February 2024 general elections.
The PTI appears to be growing increasingly frustrated as it accuses government agencies of interfering in its work during the elections. The PTI leadership claims it won a two-thirds majority in February elections that have since been allegedly snatched away from it.
It is no exaggeration to say that the support of the judiciary has emboldened the PTI. The courts have granted relief to Khan and his party in numerous cases filed by the previous and current governments. The judiciary has even given the impression of “rewriting the constitution” in the PTI’s favour. In a recent court petition, the Sunni Isad Council, an ally of the PTI, sought reservation of seats for women and minorities in the national and provincial assemblies, which had been earlier rejected by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The Supreme Court ruled in favour of the reservation.
Not only have the cases against Khan been dismissed by the courts, but the PTI’s position in parliament has also strengthened, with the party winning more seats following a recent Supreme Court ruling allowing it to reserve seats for women and minorities.
The government’s decision to ban the PTI and charge its leaders with sedition will likely face challenges. Previous governments have tried to ban political parties but were unsuccessful. Such attempts were often struck down by courts as unconstitutional and politically motivated. The plan to ban the PTI may also come down to the same arguments.
However, with Shehbaz Sharif’s government having little success in politically negotiating with Khan and the PTI, banning the party appears to be the next option. But it could also be said that the government and its allies within government agencies feel more comfortable going after the PTI more forcefully at this point. So why now?
The Sharif government may have had plans to ban the PTI for some time, but could not announce it due to the country’s economic problems and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new bailout program. With the IMF talks over, it may have become an opportune moment for the government to attack the PTI.
In a notable development, the Islamabad High Court recently accepted Imran Khan’s petition and granted him bail in a corruption case. And last month, a local court acquitted Khan in two cases filed against him in connection with the violent protests that erupted after his arrest on May 9 last year. And last week, an Islamabad court acquitted the former prime minister and his wife Bushra Bibi in a controversial illegal marriage case. It seems likely that the newly filed case against Khan will suffer a similar fate with the ruling in favor of the PTI founder.
These rulings may have convinced the Sharif government and the military that a section of the judiciary was inclined to grant relief to the PTI even in cases that required serious response and investigation. This prompted the government to challenge court directions and assert parliamentary primacy rather than heeding judicial rulings.
The federal cabinet will likely approve a ban on the PTI, which will pose a challenge to the judiciary and raise the question of whether parliament or the judiciary is the supreme power.
Moreover, the government and security agencies may have been sending a loud message to both the PTI and its allied judiciary to expedite the trial of cases related to the May 9 riots. It may be recalled that the PTI is facing terrorism-related charges for allegedly inciting rebellion within the army with violent attacks on army installations and riots that day. Despite the army’s repeated requests to adjudicate in these cases, the courts have been dragging their feet on them and not taking them seriously.
As a result, Pakistan looks more divided than it was before the February 2024 general elections. While there was some hope that stability would return to the country after the elections, the situation has deteriorated, with clear divisions appearing between the judiciary, the government and the security agencies.
At this stage, no one seems capable of striking a compromise between the two sides, and the situation could become even more chaotic if the court takes further steps that are seen as damaging to the interests of the government and security services.
