Pakistan’s leaders are facing pressure from friendly countries, including “iron brother” China, to create a safe environment for investment. Reuters
On March 26, a Chinese convoy travelling from Islamabad to the Das Hydroelectric Project site in Kohistan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was attacked by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists. The Pakistani government immediately announced a compensation payment of $2.5 million to the families of the five Chinese nationals killed. A joint investigation team consisting of police and intelligence officials was subsequently formed to investigate this high-profile terrorist attack and address China’s concerns.
Pakistani law enforcement agencies completed the investigation in just over two months, a remarkable achievement indeed, but Chinese authorities seem unimpressed, as reports suggest that Beijing wants to launch a major counter-terrorism operation against the militants, modelled on Operation Zarb-i-Azb.
China calls for anti-terrorism operations
Reports that China is calling for a major counterterrorism operation reflect Beijing’s concerns about growing threats to Chinese nationals working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor-related projects and other projects in Pakistan. The South Asian country has previously launched such counterterrorism operations at China’s request.
Operation Lal Masjid in Islamabad in 2007 was reportedly launched after Chinese President Hu Jintao called General Musharraf. Prior to the operation, female students from Jamia Hafsa Madrasa had kidnapped a Chinese medical worker whom they believed to be a prostitute. Years later, Operation Lal Masjid continues to haunt Pakistan and inspire jihadist movements around the world.
International pressure, including from China, also proved effective when Pakistani forces launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in 2014. China supported the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) recommendation that Pakistan comply with its commitments on combating terrorist financing and money laundering, but at the same time argued that Pakistan should be given more time to meet FATF requirements.
However, China’s demand for a large-scale operation may not be feasible at present, as terrorist elements of the Pakistani Taliban Movement are hiding out in Afghanistan and cross-border operations could have far-reaching effects in the region. Moreover, the insurgency in Balochistan continues between rebels and security forces. Rebels recently targeted the Gwadar Port Authority complex. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which claimed responsibility for the attack, has demanded that China abandon operations in the region and has consistently opposed CPEC.
Pakistan’s economy is in deep crisis and any major military operation would be costly. At the same time, Pakistan’s leadership is facing pressure from friendly countries to create a secure environment for investment. This includes not only China, Pakistan’s major investor, but also other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that share Beijing’s concerns about investing in Pakistan. Security concerns are being taken seriously.
On May 20, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved a cooperation agreement between the Saudi Arabian National Security Agency and Pakistan’s military intelligence services to fight terrorism and its sources of financing.
But Pakistan’s leaders are confident that security challenges can be mitigated, and seem keen for other countries considering investing in the country to follow suit, even as terrorist incidents continue to shake foreign investor confidence.
Afghanistan Perspective
Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a major security challenge for Pakistan, but terrorism and extremism have a long history of being used by state actors for political and strategic purposes. The movements of terrorist groups are known and preventative measures can be taken, but the added challenge of border control complicates matters.
A stable relationship with Kabul is a strategic imperative for Pakistan. However, the relationship between the two countries has been steadily deteriorating. This runs counter to hopes that the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 would enable Pakistan to secure its western border. Instead, border tensions have risen significantly, resulting in a spate of terrorist attacks targeting Pakistani security forces. The TTP has ramped up violence from its safe havens in Afghanistan, posing an increasing threat to Pakistan’s security.
According to a series of reports by the UN Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, “among foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan, the TTP has been the biggest beneficiary of the Taliban’s takeover of power.” This is consistent with Pakistan’s assessment that Kabul’s unwillingness to take action against the TTP increases the threat to Pakistan’s security. After a ceasefire brokered by the Afghan Taliban between Pakistani authorities and the TTP broke down in November 2022, cross-border attacks intensified. In fact, the TTP took advantage of this to expand its influence in Pakistan.
Pakistan has been trying for the past two years to convince Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to take action against the TTP, but with little success. Taliban leaders have given assurances and sought time but have done nothing. A sharp increase in terrorist activities has led to a significant increase in security force casualties. Pakistani leaders have publicly expressed concern about “TTP’s safe haven and freedom of operation in Afghanistan.”
At a recent press conference, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi held the TTP responsible for the March attack on Chinese workers in Bhisham. He said the group orchestrated the attack as a “flagship project” from Afghanistan with the support of “enemy intelligence agencies.” He called on Kabul to arrest, prosecute or extradite the terrorists behind the attack to Pakistan.
He said despite Islamabad’s urging, the Taliban have not taken steps to prevent militants from launching attacks from their sanctuaries in Afghanistan. The issue was also discussed by corps commanders, who expressed serious concern over “continued cross-border terrorist attacks” from Afghan territory, adding that “hostile foreign forces are using Afghanistan” to target Pakistani security personnel and civilians.
Over the past year, Pakistan has taken steps to increase the burden on the Taliban regarding the TTP, conducting airstrikes on the militant group’s hideouts in Afghanistan. In April, Pakistan announced it had carried out airstrikes on militant shrines and warned that such actions would continue unless the Taliban changed course.
Last October, Pakistan imposed some restrictions on transit trade, banning some items that could be imported into Afghanistan through Pakistan. The measures were aimed at curbing smuggling but also put pressure on Kabul. The Taliban responded by accusing Pakistan of politicizing trade. Some of the restrictions have since been relaxed.
The third is the expulsion of around 700,000 illegal Afghans residing in Pakistan. This has already been carried out, with over 500,000 Afghans being deported to Afghanistan. A second phase is now looming over the decision to expel around 600,000 Afghans who hold citizenship cards issued by Pakistan some years ago.
Pakistan’s dilemma is that it cannot afford to sever ties with Afghanistan.
Conclusion
Intolerance in Pakistan has also led to the breakdown of social fabric, creating a precarious situation for minorities. Intolerance is a major impediment to economic development, including foreign investment. Last year, a Chinese national narrowly escaped being lynched by a mob at the site of the Das Hydroelectric Project. On December 3, 2021, a Sri Lankan national, Priyanta Kumara Diyawadana, was lynched by a mob in Sialkot.
According to reports, during Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz’s recent visit to China, where he was accompanied by General Asim Munir and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the safety of Chinese nationals in Pakistan was a major concern.
Naghmana Hashmi, a former Pakistani ambassador to China, said Beijing was negotiating tough with Islamabad over the safety of Chinese nationals to avoid any backlash from the Chinese.
“Their people ask questions, their journalists ask questions, this is our best friend and people don’t die in our country except when they go to Pakistan,” Hashmi said. “The impression is very bad now because nobody understands the political implications of it,” the former diplomat said, reiterating Pakistani officials’ position that hostile countries want to sabotage CPEC.
There is no doubt that extremism and intolerance in Pakistan have thrived with state sponsorship. Decades of short-sighted policies have radicalized large sections of the population and caused rifts in society. Unless Pakistan makes a fundamental shift in its policy of supporting dissident elements, Islamabad will find that its friends face a binary choice: stay or go.
The author is a retired Major General, Indian Army. The views expressed in the article above are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.
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