A fundamental fact of Pakistani political life is the enduring influence and power of military generals, which is absent in the Indian political process.
As the world’s largest election campaign comes to an end, I am reminded of the parliamentary elections held in Pakistan on February 8 this year. While the Indian elections demonstrate the essence of a vibrant democracy where the choice of the people cannot be overturned either before or during the election period, in Pakistan, national elections are being accused of being rigged with military interference and vitiating the voting process.
This was demonstrated conclusively in the February elections, but it is not the only election that has been disrupted by the military. And military interference in politics is not limited to national elections; it is a constant factor. To understand how and why the military completely rigged the February 8 elections, it is helpful to look back at the evolution of Pakistan’s political landscape over the past decade. The events of this decade have established the power that men in khaki exercise in the country’s public life, even when they are not directly in power.
The Pakistani military was unhappy with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) winning the 2013 general election and forming a government with its leader Nawaz Sharif as prime minister. Seeing the political situation, the military decided to push for the fate of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan.
Khan, who led Pakistan’s cricket team to victory in the World Cup in 1992, had made little progress politically until then, although he founded a party in 1996. But he was charismatic and cultivable, and the military began using him against Nawaz Sharif. In 2016, Sharif was embroiled in a scandal sparked by the Panama Papers. He and his family were accused of diverting funds overseas, including to buy a property in London.
The case went to court and Sharif was found to have violated the constitutional qualifications for a member of parliament. As a result, he was removed from the prime minister’s position in 2017. He was subsequently convicted in criminal cases and imprisoned. With Nawaz Sharif gone, the PML appointed Shahid Khaqan Abbasi as prime minister for the remainder of the 2018 National Assembly term.
In the 2018 elections, the military, led by General Qamar Bajwa, who was ironically appointed Army Commander by Nawaz Sharif, decided that they should back Imran Khan to win. Although the PTI fell short of a majority, it was by far the single largest party and formed a government with the support of independents and smaller parties. Imran Khan became prime minister in August 2018 and led what analysts call a hybrid government, given the military’s role in policymaking.
In the fall of 2021, Bajwa and Imran Khan had a falling out. The reason for this was that Khan was unhappy with the then ISI Director General Lt. Gen. Faez Hameed having relieved Bajwa from his post. Pakistan’s military commander does not allow anyone to interfere in the running of the army. Bajwa, too, realized that Imran Khan was overstepping his bounds.
As a result, he decided that the military needed to change its approach towards the PML(N) and oust Imran Khan from the prime ministerial position by forming a coalition between the PML(N), Bhutto-Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s party. This happened in April 2022. A PDM coalition government led by Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, was formed. However, despite being “dethroned”, Imran Khan remained immensely popular not only among his Pathani base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) but also in Punjab. This was demonstrated by his victory in the by-elections in the latter province.
After Shehbaz Sharif’s government came to power, Bajwa’s first job was to ensure that it continued in power until the administration could appoint a successor. His extended term was due to end in November 2022, although PM Khan had given him a second three-year term in 2019, ironically despite a Supreme Court ruling requiring amendments to the Army Act. The PDM government managed to survive despite facing serious macroeconomic problems of massive inflation and a precarious decline in Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. At the urging of Nawaz Sharif, who was in London (he went there in 2019 and continued to reside there afterwards), PM Shehbaz appointed Asim Muneer, who had a grudge against Imran Khan, as Army Chief to replace Bajwa.
According to the constitution, the term of the 15th National Assembly was to end in August 2023, and the PDM government’s term was to end by May, with a caretaker government to be formed until the elections. However, by early 2023, it became clear that the new army chief would not allow elections to take place unless he was sure that Imran Khan would not win them. His determination was further strengthened after the May 9 incident, when PTI members and Imran Khan supporters vented their anger on army installations and attacked some of the army’s sacred sites, including the army chief’s official residence, known as Jinnah House, in Lahore. Khan was in jail at the time and was the subject of several legal proceedings to ensure that he would remain in jail.
Though Shehbaz Sharif stepped down in August 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan kept postponing the elections on one pretext or another, bowing to the army’s wishes. In a crucial step, the commission declared that the PTI could not contest elections as a party since it had not conducted internal elections as required by the constitution. It also declared that PTI members contesting as independent candidates could not use the party symbol. The army was also waiting for Justice Faez Isa to become the country’s Chief Justice as they felt that he had no animosity towards the generals.
By the time the elections were held, Nawaz Sharif had returned to Pakistan but could not become leader of the PML (N) as the cases against him had not been dropped by the courts. (That happened only after a new government was formed in February and he became party leader again on May 28.) As Imran Khan was in jail for a criminal conviction and could not run, the focus of the election campaign was on Khan himself, as despite his incarceration he remained popular in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. PTI candidates could not enjoy the benefit of the party symbol and ran as independents. They were also under pressure from the military, which had encouraged some of the party’s senior figures to leave the party.
Backed into a corner, all they insisted in their election campaign was that voting for them was voting for “Kaptaan” – Imran Khan. They also sent a message that Khan was removed from his position as prime minister as part of an international conspiracy. They blamed traitors and also focused on the terrible economic situation. Meanwhile, the PDM parties focused on the events of May 9 and the mess that Khan left when he lost his job. None of the candidates addressed the real problems facing Pakistan. In short, the electoral rivals were Khan and Asim Muneer. This was not stated explicitly, but every Pakistani knew it was so.
Imran Khan’s Independents emerged as the largest “group”, but lost their party status and were therefore forced to join smaller parties to run for women and minority seats. The Election Commission rejected this, but the case is currently pending in court. Muneer ensured that the PML (N) and the PPP reached an agreement to form a government. Though the PPP did not join the government, it extended outside support, negotiated and elected Asif Zardari as president. In this arrangement, the military retained ultimate influence.
In contrast to Pakistan’s election campaign, the Indian election campaign remains a ballot contest where the people elect their representatives and through them decide which party or coalition will form the government. Of course, no institution can come between the politicians and the people in India. The Modi government and the opposition parties have come up with different visions for India and policies and programs to realise those different visions. Also, during the last decade that Pakistan has seen such turmoil, India has progressed economically. Of course, in their election campaigns, the opposition parties have poked holes in the economic development process as well as the government’s social and political approach. But all this is part of the democratic electoral process.
While the Indian election campaign highlighted the credibility of Indian democracy, Pakistan’s election campaign highlighted a fundamental fact of Pakistani political life: the enduring influence and power of its military generals.
The author is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar and as Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs. The views expressed in the above article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Firstpost.
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