State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad warned that inflation could increase again in the coming months, despite a temporary easing in March.
Speaking at the launch of Pakistan Literacy Week in Karachi, SBP chief said that inflation had dropped to a historic low of 0.7% in March 2025, but warned of a reversal starting next month.
“Despite the recent decline, inflation is expected to rise again,” he said, citing earlier monetary tightening and import restrictions that helped stabilise the economy.
Jameel Ahmad noted that Pakistan faced severe challenges in 2022, with inflation accelerating rapidly, foreign reserves falling to two weeks’ worth of imports, and the rupee depreciating by up to 50%.
He said the SBP had responded with aggressive policy measures, including raising interest rates and imposing restrictions on imports. These steps, he added, helped reduce the gap between the interbank and open market exchange rates.
The SBP chief also said that Pakistan’s current account, which was in deficit last year, had returned to surplus and was being maintained through disciplined policy interventions.
He confirmed that the country’s external payment obligations for FY25 stood at $26 billion, of which $16bn would be rolled over or refinanced. Of the remaining $10bn, $8bn had already been paid.
Regarding growth, Ahmad projected GDP to expand between 2.5% and 3.5% by the end of FY25. However, he added that if the agricultural sector performed strongly, growth could reach 4.2%.
