MANILA/HONG KONG (Reuters) – When senior Philippine officials gathered in the Presidential Policy Room last February, they faced a stark choice.
Military and intelligence leaders looked on as Coast Guard officials showed photos of a military-grade laser beam that China allegedly fired at a Philippine ship in the disputed waters days earlier.
Eduardo Ano, national security adviser and chairman of the South China Sea Task Force, had to decide whether to release the photos and risk angering Beijing, or to refrain from releasing them to avoid provoking China’s larger neighbour.
“The public has a right to know,” the retired general told the officials. “Release the pictures.”
The meeting, which was previously behind closed doors, marked a pivotal moment as Manila launched a propaganda offensive to highlight an escalating territorial dispute in the South China Sea, where tensions have soared after ships collided, the use of water cannons and subsequent diplomatic protests.
“This was a turning point, the birth of the transparency policy,” Jonathan Malaya, a spokesman for the National Security Council who attended the meeting and recounted the exchange, told Reuters. “The objective was ultimately to inflict serious damage on Beijing’s reputation, image and standing.”
Malaya said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had instructed authorities to “civilize and internationalize” the conflict, which he achieved by using the coast guard and regularly sending foreign journalists to the country. “This has been a key element in building international support for the Philippines because our audience is also foreign governments,” he added.
This account of the Philippine policy shift and its impact is based on interviews with 20 Philippine and Chinese officials, regional diplomats and analysts. They said publicizing China’s actions, combined with the Philippines’ strengthening military alliance with the United States, has curbed China’s ability to escalate disputes at sea but has increased the risks of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. engagement.
The February 2023 meeting came days after President Marcos granted the United States access to four more military bases in the Philippines, rekindling defense ties that had deteriorated under his predecessor, President Rodrigo Duterte.
“Without invoking the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and risking a military conflict between US and Chinese militaries, China is left with few options for escalation,” said Ian Storey, a security scholar at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
President Marcos also launched a diplomatic offensive, winning statements of support for the Philippine position from countries such as Canada, Germany, India and Japan.
The South China Sea is rich in oil and natural gas, and about $3 trillion in trade passes through it annually. U.S. access to bases in the Philippines could be crucial in a war over Taiwan.
China, which claimed most of the area in an international tribunal in 2016, says Philippine vessels are trespassing in waters around the disputed shallows. China has warned President Marcos, who took office in June 2022, not to misinterpret the situation.
“This is brinksmanship, this is poker,” said Philippine legal scholar Jay Batongbacal. “Brinksmanship is about pushing things to the edge and seeing who will back down. Poker is a game of bluff and deception. You can do both at the same time.”
In response to questions from Reuters, China’s Foreign Ministry said the Philippines was taking “provocative actions at sea, seeking to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests”, inciting tensions.
China has stated that it will safeguard its national interests while peacefully resolving disputes through dialogue.
A State Department spokesman said Manila’s transparency efforts had succeeded in drawing further attention to China’s “disregard for international law” and its actions that put Philippine soldiers at risk.
The spokesman did not comment on the risk of U.S. military intervention but said the United States would support the Philippines if it came under economic pressure from China.
“The night awakens”
The dispute is over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippine Navy maintains the rusting warship BRP Sierra Madre, which it beached in 1999 to bolster Manila’s territorial claims. The ship is staffed by a small crew.
Chinese vessels have surrounded Philippine ships and fired water cannons to try to thwart resupply efforts, shattering the ship’s windshield and injuring crew members in March. The Manila government released footage of the incident and said China had acted lawfully and professionally.
In February, a Philippine vessel photographed Chinese ships setting up barriers at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal, and this week the two countries traded accusations over a collision between their vessels near Second Thomas Shoal.
Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriera has taunted Chinese authorities and state media about X, sometimes posting drone footage of clashes at sea. “If I had done anything wrong, I would have been shut down,” he said.
Tarriera said despite the rise in incidents, the threshold for Chinese aggression has not changed, while the transparency campaign has galvanized support for Manila and is proving effective.
“They are still relying on water cannons… they are still sticking to those tactics,” he said.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in January that the number of Chinese vessels stationed around Second Thomas Reef during Philippine replenishment missions is increasing from an average of one in 2021 to about 14 in 2023.
Last month, Chinese coast guards came within metres of the Sierra Madre mountain range to seize supplies that had been airdropped to troops stationed there, according to Philippine officials. China, whose navy was patrolling nearby, said Philippine soldiers had pointed their guns at the coast guards, but Manila said the soldiers had simply drawn their weapons.
Philippine officials said they feared the deadly accident could escalate into open hostilities.
“It’s keeping many of us up at night,” Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippine ambassador to Washington, told Reuters.
Manila also wants to avoid a repeat of the economic pressure it faced about a decade ago when Philippine bananas rotted in Chinese ports due to lengthy Chinese customs inspections.
China will be the Philippines’ second-largest export market in 2023, accounting for 14.8% of total shipments, worth about $11 billion. China is the Philippines’ largest supplier, mainly importing refined petroleum products and electronic equipment.
Romualdez said Manila hopes China “understands the value of continuing economic activities while trying to resolve the issue peacefully.”
University of the Philippines political scientist Edsel John Ibarra said Marcos risks provoking China into taking a “harder approach” such as non-tariff barriers and tourism restrictions, pointing to proposed changes announced by China in May that would allow its coast guard to detain foreigners for 60 days without trial.
“Paradigm Shift”
The intensity of Manila’s military actions has surprised neighboring countries, including Vietnam and Malaysia, which have maritime disputes with China and are becoming more cautious about what they release from their skirmishes with China.
“We are all watching this and discussing it,” said one Asian diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The Philippines has come up with a new strategy to confront Beijing over points of friction.”
In December, President Marcos said diplomacy with China had achieved little and called on Southeast Asian countries to “make a paradigm shift.”
Chinese state media has expressed discomfort with the transparency push.
The Philippines is “playing the victim to mislead international opinion,” state media Global Times said in an editorial in May.
A key aspect of Manila’s approach is strengthening its alliance with the United States. The two countries revealed in May last year that a defense treaty would cover their coast guards. In April, President Marcos took part in an unprecedented summit with the leaders of both the United States and Japan.
A U.S. official involved in U.S.-China talks that month said Chinese officials had expressed frustration with diplomatic progress being made behind closed doors, adding that Beijing was “feeling squeezed.”
Some Chinese scholars, such as Zhao Daojing of Peking University’s School of International Studies, say the situation will remain stalemated and China will remain “reactive in nature” to conflict flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal.
“By reacting to the Philippines’ actions, they want to continue to send the message that the shoal is in dispute,” he said.
(This story has been refiled to correct the name of the institute in the 10th paragraph)
(Additional reporting by Laurie Cheng, Simon Lewis and Mikhail Flores; Editing by Antoni Slodkowski and David Crawshaw)
