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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has suggested that the conflict between his country and China could escalate into war if clashes with the Chinese coast guard escalate and result in the deaths of Filipinos.
When asked how his government would respond if Philippine soldiers were killed as a result of Chinese coast guard actions, President Marcos said, “When you intentionally kill not just our soldiers but Philippine citizens, that comes very close to what we would define as an act of war.”
Speaking at an international defense forum in Singapore, Marcos said the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, is held to “the same standards,” marking the first time that a president has suggested a scenario that could lead to a request for assistance under the 1951 treaty.
Since August last year, China Coast Guard vessels have repeatedly fired water cannon at Philippine ships supplying military bases in disputed waters in the South China Sea, damaging the vessels and injuring Philippine sailors.
“We’ve already been injured, but thankfully we’re not there yet. [of a death]”But once you get to that point, you’ve crossed the Rubicon. Is it a line that shouldn’t be crossed? Almost certainly,” Marcos said.
The China Coast Guard’s actions and Manila’s firm response have raised concerns that a long-running territorial dispute in the strategically vital South China Sea could escalate into armed conflict.
The Philippines regularly sends supply ships to the Sierra Madre, a rusting former U.S. warship that was deliberately run aground in 1999 on a sandbar in the South China Sea’s Second Thomas Reef, which is also claimed by China, and where a small number of troops are stationed.
Since early last year, China has stepped up efforts to disrupt such supply operations, using coast guard and maritime militia vessels.
Manila said in 2023 that a Chinese vessel had targeted its own ship with a laser, and last year several ships collided as a result of what the Philippines described as Chinese sabotage.
Marcos’ remarks came after he addressed defense ministers, military commanders, diplomats and analysts at the Shangri-La Dialogue Forum, in which he described his country as the guardian of a regional security order based on international law and treaties.
“Our efforts are in stark contrast to certain actors,” he said, adding that in the South China Sea, the Philippines is “at the forefront” of efforts to uphold the integrity of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which outlines the rights of coastal states.
China’s claims in the South China Sea almost entirely clash with coastal states’ economic rights, and in some cases sovereignty, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, but since taking office in mid-2022, President Marcos has made his country China’s most vocal challenger on this issue.
Marcos also reinvigorated the Philippines-U.S. alliance, overseeing the largest bilateral military exercises in three decades and expanding U.S. military access to Philippine bases. “I will not compromise. The Filipino people will not compromise,” Marcos said.
Marcos argued that countries in the region have the right to determine their own future, rather than being treated as an “arena” for great power competition. Strategic competition between the United States and China is limiting the choices of countries in the region and exacerbating conflicts, he said.
“China’s Decisive Influence [in the region] “That’s an immutable fact,” Marcos said, “but at the same time, the stabilizing presence of the United States is important.”
