Pakistan’s disaster management authority releases comprehensive monsoon forecast for July
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Monday released a comprehensive monsoon forecast for July, highlighting the potential impact of rains in different parts of the country.
The National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC) will be established in October 2023 and will be equipped with the latest tools and technology, including real-time satellite feeds, to predict disasters up to three months in advance. Housed at the NDMA, the centre will have a multi-disciplinary team of experts who will harness the power of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, climatology, meteorology, seismology, hydrology and data science to monitor and analyse global and regional hazards.
In its forecast, NEOC said moderate to very heavy rainfall will occur in different parts of the country, which may lead to riverine floods, flash floods, urban flooding, landslides in hilly areas and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
“In light of these projections, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has advised State Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) and other concerned departments to remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to any emergency,” the NDMA said in a statement.
NDMA said as per forecast, isolated areas of Mardan, Malakand and Hazara Divisions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in northwest Pakistan are expected to receive rainfall in the third week of July, while heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in the fourth week.
In Pakistan’s Punjab province, Lahore, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Gujranwala districts and Islamabad are expected to receive 15-50 mm of rain in some places during the first and second week of July.
The NDMA has warned that floods are likely in Punjab’s Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sargodha, Gujranwala and Faisalabad areas during the fourth week of July.
According to the Sindh Meteorological Department, Mirpurkhas, Karachi, Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Larkana and Sukkur districts are expected to receive 30-75 mm of rainfall in July. Heavy to very heavy rains are expected in these areas during the second and fourth week of July.
“Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Astur district of Gilgit-Baltistan and isolated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir during the fourth week of July, which may result in severe flooding in nullahs and rivers,” it said.
Disaster management authorities have asked government departments and agencies to alert people living along rivers and nullahs about the expected increase in water levels and ensure timely evacuation of at-risk people from low-lying and flood-prone areas.
“Furthermore, the public is advised to take strict precautions, including staying away from utility poles and vulnerable infrastructure and refraining from driving or walking near waterways,” the statement said.
Pakistan is consistently ranked as one of the countries in the world most affected by climate change. In June 2022, unprecedented rainfall and melting glaciers caused massive floods across the country, killing nearly 1,700 people and causing $3 billion in damages. Scientists and experts attributed the floods to the adverse effects of climate change.
Pakistan was also hit by extreme heat last month, with temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius in some areas.
