A new survey of Michigan voters finds that even among those who say they are personally doing better than they were before the coronavirus pandemic, faith in our democratic institution, the value of a college education and economic stability has declined.
The poll also asked whether the use of force, threats or violence is ever justified in a democratic country under any circumstances, with 35% of respondents saying they thought it was.
And 5% of Michigan voters said violence would be justified if their preferred presidential candidate lost the 2024 election after all votes were “fairly” counted, while 90% said violence would not be justified in that case.
A broad-based poll commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce ahead of the Mackinac Policy Conference, which kicks off in several regions this Tuesday, points to a disconnect between reality and what voters perceive to be true, particularly when it comes to the economy and inflation rates.
“What this survey, and many others, makes clear is that voters can no longer agree on some basic facts. We live in an age of misinformation,” said Richard Chuba, pollster and founder of the Glengariff Group, which conducted the survey. “Because they can’t agree on the facts, voters can’t analyze the basic principles of what’s in front of them.”
Some of the survey’s most striking findings concern how respondents view the current state of democracy, with Chubba blaming political polarization born of misinformation for “eroding” a once shared faith in the institution.
A bipartisan majority, 68% of respondents, said they were dissatisfied with the state of American democracy. Only 26% of voters said they were satisfied.
When asked why they are dissatisfied with the current state of democracy, Republican supporters cited “Joe Biden and the Democratic Party” (23%) and “Politicians don’t listen to the people” (9%). Meanwhile, Democrat supporters blame partisanship and intraparty fighting (27%) and “Donald Trump and the Republican Party” (16%). Independents also blame partisanship and intraparty fighting (17%).
“We often blame each other,” Chuba said.
The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted May 1-5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Would an authoritarian be preferable?
The poll found that a third of voters would not say democracy is the best form of government, 67% agree that it is, and one in six (17%) say it “doesn’t really matter” whether the U.S. government is democratic or undemocratic.
Another 5 percent said they would prefer a dictatorship under certain circumstances, while 11 percent expressed no opinion, according to the survey. A dictatorship concentrates political power in the hands of one leader or a small group and denies its citizens political rights and civil liberties.
The poll found that moderate voters were more likely than Democrats or Republicans to say the type of government is unimportant, and 34% of black respondents said the type of government is unimportant, compared with 15% of white voters.
Eighty-six percent of Michigan voters believe political violence is a threat to democracy, with half saying it is a “serious” threat and 35% saying it is somewhat of a threat. When asked about circumstances in which violence or intimidation might be justified in a democracy, 52% said violence is never justified under any circumstances, while 35% said there are such circumstances.
According to respondents, these situations include when a crime occurs (33%), riots or crowds (8%), terrorism or threats from foreign forces (8%), violent police responses (6%), a revolution against federal overreach (5%), the January 6th Capitol riots (5%), and “excessive protests” (4%).
Ninety percent of respondents said violence would not be justified if their preferred presidential candidate lost the 2024 election after the votes were fairly counted, while 5% said violence would be justified, an additional 1.5% said it depended on whether the votes were indeed fairly counted, and 4% were undecided.
“It may not seem like a large number, but 5 percent of the population is a significant number, and I want to point that out,” Chubba said. “There are a lot of people out there who believe that violence is justified.”
The survey also asked whether violence or intimidation would be justified if their country’s presidential candidate lost the 2024 election and electoral officials determined the count was fair, but the candidate believed the opposing party had acted illegally or unfairly to win.
Eighty-seven percent said there was no justification for violence, while 6% said it would be justified. The 6% were “almost entirely” Republicans in the survey, Chuba said. Republican men make up the majority of those voters. Thirteen percent of Republicans said violence would be justified in this situation.
“It’s a red flag, but it’s also reflective of what’s been debated in this country for the last four years,” Chuba said. “The attack on the Capitol has divided the country. Some, especially in the Republican base, believe it was justified. Those numbers are really alarming.”
The survey also reflects weakening voter belief in individual democratic principles, such as religious freedom, freedom of speech, and that their vote will be counted accurately and like everyone else’s.
Majorities of Republicans (60%), independents (51%) and black voters (56%) express no confidence in the right to free speech.
A majority of Republicans (57%) also doubt whether their vote will be counted like other voters. Voters over 65 are most confident that their vote will be counted like other voters, 73% to 25%. 61% of Republicans are also not confident that their vote was counted accurately.
Chuba noted that no demographic group surveyed said they were confident that federal law enforcement applies the law equally and fairly without bias, with 67% of Republicans saying they were unsure of this opinion.
Trust in local law enforcement is lowest among black voters, with 69% of black voters not trusting their local police, compared to 64% of white voters who trust their local law enforcement to apply the law fairly and without bias.
Conflicting views on the economy
The economy was another example of stark differences in perception among voters.
For example, even though gross domestic product (GDP), or the nation’s economic output, grew 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the stock market is rising, and Michigan’s unemployment rate remains low at 3.9%, 61% of respondents see the economy as weak or in recession.
Sixty-one percent of voters perceive the economy as weakening, down 7.6 percentage points since November, and Republicans have become more pessimistic in their assessment of the weakening economy, while Democrats and independents are more positive and giving a better assessment of the economy, Chuba noted. But independents remain pessimistic by 37% to 59%.
Only 28% of respondents correctly stated that inflation over the past year has been 4% or less, while 37% believe inflation is 6% or more. Inflation as of April was 3.4%. Again, Republicans were more likely to say inflation is 6% or more.
Only 22% of survey respondents said a four-year college degree is worth the cost. About 64% of “devout” Republicans and 49% of self-identified independents said a four-year college degree is not worth the cost.
Eighty-two percent of respondents said a four-year degree from a college in western, central, eastern or northern Michigan would cost more than a new car. Tuition at Michigan’s public universities averages $11,000 a year, according to the chamber.
“It’s very difficult to rationalize why the level of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is lower today than it was during the Great Recession 13 years ago. It’s very difficult to understand,” said Sandy Baruah, the chamber’s president and CEO.
He noted that items like gasoline and grocery store prices are not included in the core inflation rate because they tend to fluctuate and some people may be experiencing higher inflation rates depending on what they buy and where they are.
Nearly 60% of respondents said they are the same or better off financially than they were before the pandemic, while just over 26% said they were better off, 34% said they were the same, and 38% said they were worse off.
Chubba noted that Republicans were most likely to say things are getting worse, with 64% of respondents choosing that option, compared with about 18% of Democrats and 38% of independents who said things are getting worse.
Meanwhile, 14% of respondents said they were worried about losing their jobs, while 85% said they were not worried.
“This is one of those rare moments when Michiganders aren’t worried about losing their jobs,” Chubba said, “but by a 39% to 52% margin, voters said the state’s economy is heading in the wrong direction,” disproportionately blaming inflation and the price of goods, including groceries.
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