WASHINGTON, DC — More voters believe former President Donald Trump would do a better job than President Joe Biden at tackling the economy and immigration, two of the biggest issues in the 2024 presidential race, according to an exclusive USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted after a disastrous debate between President Joe Biden and President Trump.
The poll also found that voters see Trump, the Republican front-runner, as more effective at dealing with national security and China. Of the six major issues surveyed, Biden outperformed Trump on only two: race relations and health care.
Perhaps most troubling for Biden, 51% of respondents said they currently approve of how Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 2021, is doing his job, while 41% said they approve of how Biden is currently doing his job.
“He’s the real deal. The economy was doing well under him. My life was a lot better financially and I think overall he was very well respected,” said Carol Crossland, a 56-year-old Trump supporter from San Antonio, Texas.
The survey results add to the woes for Biden’s campaign, which is already in crisis due to falling poll numbers and calls for the 81-year-old Biden to drop out of the race after his poor performance in a debate 10 days ago.
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The poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters between June 28 and 30, found that Trump, 78, is leading Biden, 41% to 38%. Trump’s approval rating has increased by 3 percentage points since USA Today’s last poll in May, but remains within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received the support of 8% of voters, and the other three candidates received about 1% each.
Biden has vowed to keep campaigning, telling a crowd at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin, on Friday that “the campaign is on.”
About 60% of Americans see Trump as someone who “gets things done,” compared with 44% who see Biden as someone who “gets things done.” But Biden has managed to get a divided Congress through sweeping legislation to address climate change, domestic manufacturing and historic infrastructure spending that Trump promised but failed to deliver during his four years in office.
The poll found that the economy/inflation was the most important issue for 35% of voters, topping all issues, followed by threats to democracy at 21%, immigration at 19%, abortion at 9% and Supreme Court balance at 7%.
But despite a historic job market, low unemployment and a booming stock market, the economy remains a burden for Biden: By a 54%-40% margin, Americans believe Trump can manage the economy better than Biden.
“I feel like Biden hasn’t done enough to address the issue of how bad the economy is. It’s not his main concern,” said Robert Sawyer, a 23-year-old longshoreman in Baltimore who considers himself an independent voter. “I think the economy was better under Trump,” Sawyer said, pointing to inflation under Biden.
(The current annual inflation rate of 3.3% is less than half what it was two years ago when we emerged from the pandemic recession, but well above the 2% rate it fluctuated between 2016 and 2019. Average hourly wages are currently growing at 3.9% per year.)
Trump approves national security and China negotiations
Registered voters trust Trump more than Biden on immigration, 53% to 40%, on national security, 52% to 42%, and on negotiating with China, 51% to 41%. Biden is perceived to be the better candidate on race relations, 51% to 41%, and on health care, 50% to 40%.
Biden has faced criticism from Republicans over the immigration crisis at the southern border during his 3 1/2 years in the White House. Last month, he issued an executive order to turn back migrants at the border if it was overcrowded after Republicans in Congress blocked a compromise that would have achieved the same goal.
The poll did not ask respondents which party they thought was better suited to protect democracy, a central theme of Biden’s campaign as he seeks reelection.
When it comes to leadership qualities, 63% of respondents said Trump has a “vision for the country,” compared with 54% who said the same about Biden. Biden was also more likely to say Trump would keep his campaign promises as president, 46% to 42%.
But Biden received better ratings on other qualities: 45% of voters said he was honest and trustworthy, compared with Trump’s 33%. Sixty percent of respondents said Biden has the experience to be president, while 52% said the same for Trump.
“I definitely support Biden. Trump has to go. There’s a dark cloud hanging over us,” said Steve Catron, a 67-year-old self-described moderate Democrat from Cape May County, New Jersey, who still supports Biden despite the debate fiasco.
“Yes, he’s old and I think he’s too old for this role,” said Catron, who owns an electrical contracting company, “but I would definitely vote for him over voting for Trump. What does that say about the integrity of our democracy if you can have someone who can run for president and break all the rules and laws?”
President Trump’s approval rating is higher than when he was in the White House
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll found a worrying trend for the Biden campaign that’s consistent with other polls: Voters now have a more positive view of Trump’s time in office, even though his approval ratings were often below 40% during his time in the White House.
President Trump left the White House in 2021 with a Gallup approval rating of just 34%, his lowest ever, but in a new US-Suffolk University poll, 27% of respondents “strongly approve” of how he’s performed in office so far, and an additional 24% said they approved.
“The country was running well when he was president four or five years ago, so I can only assume that with four years of experience he’ll do a better job than he did last time,” said Zach Anderson, 30, a maintenance technician from Chicago’s South Side who said he plans to vote for Trump.
As for Biden, Anderson said, “He’s just old and I think he has signs of dementia or something.”
David Paleologos, president of the Suffolk Center for Political Research, said both Biden and Trump are equally disliked by majorities of Americans, with Biden viewed unfavorably by 57% of voters and Trump by 55%.
“There’s no difference. They’re both equally disliked,” Paleologos said, “and it’s going to come down to job performance. Like him or not, there are a few people who would say he did a better job under Trump.”
Widespread dissatisfaction with candidates from both major parties is causing some voters to look elsewhere.
Megan Holler, a 40-year-old educator from Cincinnati, Ohio, said she is of the opinion that “new talent is needed.”
“I feel like we’re stuck in old ways of thinking and doing things and our country isn’t really moving forward,” said Holler, who plans to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
But the poll found that Democrats are much more willing to dump Biden and put forward a new candidate, and that Republicans are much more willing to abandon Trump: 41% of Democrats said they want Biden to replace him as the top candidate, while just 14% of Republicans and 12% of Trump supporters said Republicans should replace Biden as the top candidate.
Still, many Democrats and anti-Trump independents said they would be happy to support Biden in a race against Trump.
“Biden is too old and Trump can’t tell the truth,” said Steve Sutton, 55, who works in information technology in Seattle. But Sutton said he will vote for the Democratic candidate who opposes Trump. “I’m a Biden supporter and an anti-Trump supporter,” he said.
Shariah Murray, 57, of Round Rock, Texas, said after the debate she remains convinced Biden is a better candidate than Trump. “He’s honest, he’s experienced and he puts people before party,” she said of Biden. And while Trump “may have been more consistent and understandable” in the debate, Murray said she felt he “lied and exaggerated.”
“I’m excited to vote for him,” Murray said of Biden, but he worries others might not be as enthusiastic.
“I’m concerned about voter apathy in our region and across the country. I think people are focusing on age rather than what the realities of our daily lives are going to be under two different administrations,” she said.
Joey Garrison can be reached at X @joeygarrison.
