WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris could narrowly defeat President Donald Trump in November’s presidential election, according to a new national poll by a Democratic pollster.
The poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi, gives Harris a one-point lead, beating Trump 42% to 41%. The poll showed 12% were undecided and 3% supported a third-party candidate. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Other Democrats who have been mentioned as possible candidates to replace Biden in the 2024 presidential election would fare much worse against Trump: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer would lose 36% to 40%, and California Governor Gavin Newsom would lose 37% to 40%. In both hypothetical matchups, more voters were undecided: 17% for Whitmer and 15% for Newsom.
President Joe Biden is clinging to the Democratic nomination despite urging from a few in his party to withdraw after his performance in the first presidential debate raised doubts about his intelligence and ability to beat Trump. Most senior Democratic Party officials, including the leaders of both houses of Congress, continue to publicly support him.
Biden has cast himself as the “person best suited to defeat” the former president in November, and he said in a letter to Democratic lawmakers on Monday that he has no plans to back down.
“I told myself two things: I’m the best person to beat him, and I know how to get things done,” Biden said in an interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos last Friday. Biden also said in the same interview that “I don’t think there’s anybody more qualified to be president or to win this election.”
But the B&A Inc. poll found Biden trailing Trump by one point, 42% to 43%, with 3% favoring a third-party candidate and 10% undecided. Trump performed well among men and those ages 18 to 29. Biden led among women and voters ages 30 to 49.
Harris and Biden would each win 42% of Hispanic voters to Trump’s 41%. But the vice president would likely win more support from black voters than the president; he received 64% of the vote to Biden’s 60%. If Harris topped the list, Trump’s share of the black vote would fall from 27% to 22%.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will beat Trump in the popular vote by 2 percentage points, the same number she did in 2016 when she lost to Trump in the Electoral College.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters who might vote in the general election was conducted online and live by a telephone operator in English and Spanish from July 2 to July 6 after the presidential debates.
Fernand Amandi, a Democrat who has worked on polls for The Atlantic Council, The Washington Post, Miami Herald and Univision, produced Spanish-language ads for Clinton in the 2008 primary and his firm conducted Hispanic polls for Obama in the 2008 general election and for his 2012 reelection.
