Democratic Party leaders have successfully forced a reluctant President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. The move represents a desperate attempt by the party to block former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump from returning to the presidency and to firmly impose his conservative, even regressive, policies on key aspects of American national life. After Biden’s disastrous performance in the June 27 debate with Trump, Democratic Party leaders concluded that he simply did not have the energy to defeat Trump in an election. That belief turned to certainty after the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump, and the July 15-18 Republican Convention further galvanized his supporters. Also, Biden’s frailty due to age became increasingly apparent in the days following the debate.
The Democratic Party is now treading in uncharted territory. Until the debate, Biden was the party’s overwhelming favorite to challenge Trump. He had secured the support of nearly all of the party’s delegates who were to formally endorse his candidacy at the Democratic Convention, scheduled to be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22. Biden is now Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee. She accepted Biden’s endorsement and declared that she intended to “seek and win this nomination.” Biden’s endorsement of Harris effectively turned his campaign into Harris’ campaign, and under US law, she will be able to make campaign contributions to her campaign.
Biden’s endorsement gives Harris a clear advantage over other Democratic leaders who might challenge her as the nominee. But the delegates who pledged their support to Biden are free to shift their support to someone they believe can challenge Trump. But it’s unlikely that a serious challenger to Harris will emerge. With just 15 weeks until Election Day on November 5, it would take a very “brave” Democrat to think he could launch a serious campaign against Trump from scratch this late.
Therefore, it is very likely that Harris will be the nominee. There are reports that before the convention in Chicago, the Democrats may hold a virtual “roll call” vote to confirm the nomination in early August. If the Democrats wait until the Chicago convention to choose a candidate other than Harris, the person chosen will not have enough time to rally party members and gain the support of undecideds. In fact, the campaign period is very limited even for Harris, giving Trump a big advantage.
Harris is unlikely to make inroads among Republican voters. Her task will be to ensure Democrats and Biden allies do not migrate to Trump. This is especially true in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, which have 93 electoral votes out of 538 total electoral votes. At the moment, Trump is doing relatively well in these states. It’s not a loss for Harris, but it will take a lot of effort to win these states.
In her first statement, Harris said that Trump’s extreme policies must stop. The reality is that American politics and society are polarized. People who feel alienated by fundamental and comprehensive changes, such as those brought about by technological developments, continue to rebel against Trump’s policies. These policies are socially and politically the polar opposite of the liberal values that have been promoted to a great extent in the United States since the 1960s, and that in theory the United States has also promoted abroad.
The attack on liberalism in the United States was perhaps most severely demonstrated by the Supreme Court’s strikedown of abortion rights. Moreover, Trump’s approach to immigration, which is a major part of his appeal, is an attempt to reverse the evolution of the United States over the past 60 years into a more multiracial and just society, which Harris represents. Trump and his allies also deny the validity of science when its straightforward predictions run counter to their economic vision. Their views on climate change are a vivid example of this unscientific approach. If Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, she will need to carry on the torch of American liberal values and provide meaningful leadership on climate change.
In the field of foreign policy, Trump points out Biden’s failures, starting with the US’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the quagmire in Gaza. Trump predicts that if he were president, US power would be respected, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine, and Hamas would not have dared to attack Israel on October 7, 2023. Trump has warned Hamas to return all American hostages or face his wrath. Harris will have to expose Trump’s bravado and convince the American people that she is powerful enough to contain China and lead it down a more responsible path.
Democratic candidates, especially Harris, must show that they are not in Biden’s shadow. In Harris’ case, the choice of running mate will require a more balanced and acceptable candidate, ethnically and gender-wise. Either way, Harris and other Democratic candidates will face a difficult, but not impossible, task.
Due to these unprecedented political developments, the world’s attention will be largely focused on the United States until November 5th.
The author is a former diplomat.
© Indian Express Ltd.
First uploaded: 22 July 2024 12:05 IST
