TTo gauge the impact of the death of President Ibrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash on Sunday, May 19, one must consider his role in the political system and foreign policy direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In a word, his role is limited. It is not the president who has the final say, but the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In reality, it is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who holds the power. It is he who selects and approves the main direction of the regime, including foreign policy, and the president only carries it out. In other words, he is only the number two in the system. Moreover, he does not have the power to appoint many ministries, including the Ministry of Defense and Intelligence, the heads of radio and television, or the Revolutionary Guards.
The IRGC plays a major role in foreign policy through its local branches (e.g. Hezbollah in Lebanon). As has become evident under President Rouhani, the IRGC has become quite mobile in its relations with the president. Of course, the president does have a role on the international stage, as he theoretically never travels outside the country. The president may take part in major international conferences or visit the UN in New York to meet with key foreign figures, such as French President Macron in September 2022. But his role remains secondary.
Ironically, this was acknowledged by the Iranian government, which announced that Raisi’s death “will not cause the slightest disruption to the running of the country.” And since the leader has tools at his disposal, such as “positions,” Raisi’s death will not cause further disruption to the regime. The regime itself acknowledges that the death of the 63-year-old president, who was very weakly elected, unpopular, boring, bland, lacking in charisma and whose only asset was his loyalty to a leader who was actually his student since he was 15 years old, has had little impact on the functioning of the Iranian political system.
A deteriorating atmosphere
His death is a major blow for the conservatives and leaves them with uncertainty. According to the constitution, new presidential elections will be held within 50 days, i.e. on June 28. The uncertainty is heightened by possible conflicts among the conservatives over the advancement of candidates. Moreover, these elections will take place in a deteriorating socio-economic atmosphere, amid the socio-political protests of “Women, Life and Freedom” that have continued under the surface of Iranian society since September 2022 despite severe repression.
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