In the 2016 presidential election, Donald J. Trump came tantalizingly close to winning Minnesota, trailing Hillary Clinton by just 1.5 percentage points in a state that seemed to favor breaking the hearts of Republicans.
On Friday, the former president is scheduled to return to speak at the Minnesota Republican Party’s fundraising dinner in St. Paul, which is open only to paid guests and invited media. Only the Trump campaign knows whether the trip is a feint to attract Democratic money to the state or a genuine effort to expand the electoral map.
But the time has come to focus on the glaring divisions in this state, where the political and social divide between urban and rural areas is particularly wide.
“No one is stronger than me,” said Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. The state’s likely last battleground region stretches from the southern tip of Minneapolis and St. Paul to rural areas southeast of the cities. “Look, I was on the ballot when Trump first ran in 2016. He won my district, but I lost the election. You have to work really hard.”
Minnesotans have not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard M. Nixon won the state in 1972. However, Mr. Trump’s vote share actually increased from 2016, when he received 44.9% and Ms. Clinton 46.4%, to 2020. The former president won 45.3% and President Biden won 52.4%.
The state’s Republicans claim 2024 is their year.
“Minnesota people are hard-working, blue-collar Midwesterners, and they are being crushed by the policies of this administration,” he said in 2018, flipping the Democratic seat that covers a large swath of northeastern Minnesota. said Republican Rep. Pete Stover. iron range. “These 10 electoral votes will go to President Donald Trump.”
Some Democrats are concerned. Democratic state Rep. Dean Phillips, who represents a well-educated and affluent suburb west of Minneapolis, said he was prepared to vote for Trump after many years of voting Republican and then switching to the Republican Party. He said he was surprised by the number of voters there. . Phillips challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination, but to no avail. Now he wants to see the president reelected.
“If the Trump campaign didn’t have good numbers internally, I don’t think they would spend their valuable time coming to that event in the Twin Cities,” Phillips said.
A Republican hasn’t won a statewide election since 2006, but Democrats’ streak doesn’t capture the complex dynamics of the state, which is home to the urban core of Minneapolis-St. Paul. Paul and its suburbs are experiencing rapid population growth and are moving significantly to the left, while rural Minnesota is moving to the right.
Rep. Collin Peterson, a 15-term moderate Democrat and chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, lost to Mr. Stover in 2018, and Rep. Collin Peterson, a moderate Democrat who served 15 terms in 2020, was the Democratic Party remaining in the vast northern part of the state. The last remnants of the centrists were wiped out. The district in southern Minnesota, which is largely rural, was once represented by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, but is now dominated by conservative Republicans.
Meanwhile, in Minneapolis, the Democratic Socialists of America and their allies secured a majority on the City Council last year. Suburbs once dominated by moderate Republicans have turned Democratic.
The Trump campaign believes it can capitalize on, or stir up, a backlash against the still-fresh memories of the leftist marches in the Twin Cities and the unrest that followed the killing of George Floyd.
Trump told an anchor on the conservative website Alpha News on Thursday, “It’s very sad what happened to your state,” and attacked progressive Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minneapolis as a “hater.” He promised “mass deportations” and vowed to “reinstate the law.” “The execution that preceded Mr. Floyd’s murder remained in place.” “Your country is out of control and we cannot continue to allow this radical leftist philosophy to continue.”
Recent polls show Biden holding a narrow lead in Minnesota, with some polls within the margin of error. His precarious position was further exacerbated by the war in Gaza. The protest movement calling for “dishonesty” in the Democratic presidential primary in March had an approval rating of 19%.
“This is a real opportunity to expand the map,” Chris Lacivita, a senior Trump campaign adviser, told The Associated Press ahead of Trump’s visit.
Even the state’s Democrats are concerned.
“At the end of the day, I don’t really think Minnesota will play a role. When the contrast between Donald Trump and Biden becomes clear in the final stages of the campaign, disaffected and undecided voters will vote for President Biden.” “Because he will,” said Jim Manley, a Democratic political consultant in Minneapolis. “But it’s probably too close for comfort.”
Phillips said, “I confess that I have spoken to many more people, and some prominent people, who say they will vote for Trump. will be recognized.”
But Minnesota was to Republicans what North Carolina was to Democrats. they know how to win. They have won in the past. But they always seem to be in short supply. In 2008, Barack Obama won North Carolina. Minnesota’s last Republican governor, Tim Pawlenty, narrowly won reelection in 2006.
