President Trump’s Coronation and China’s Third Plenary Session After the Milwaukee Shooting

Hello and welcome to the work week.

The US presidential campaign is set to be reshaped after Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt at a campaign rally on Saturday night.

The former president’s campaign has said Trump’s campaign is going well, and he is set to attend the Republican National Convention this week, where he will be formally named the party’s nominee for the White House.

But the assassination attempt on President Trump threatens to add new dynamics to an already troubled US election campaign and further divide the country. Follow our live blog for the latest updates on the shooting and its aftermath.

Joe Biden, who spoke with Trump later Saturday, called the incident “terrible” and “a reason we need to unite our country.” A Biden campaign official said the president’s re-election campaign has “suspended all outside communications and is working to stop television advertising as soon as possible.”

Polls were moving in Trump’s favour before the shooting, but as the week progresses it will become clear whether it has boosted his campaign. The FT will be providing comprehensive coverage from the Milwaukee conference centre as the unrest gathers steam.

The FT also wants to hear your thoughts on the US presidential elections. How do they affect you? Click here to submit your comments.

The big event in China this week is the Third Plenary Session, taking place in Beijing from Monday to Thursday. The Communist Party of China Central Committee typically holds seven plenary sessions during its five-year term. The Third Plenary Session has particularly attracted international attention because of past announcements on economic policy. We expect the session to outline key policy initiatives to restore consumer and business confidence and address the continuing significant drag from the real estate sector. This analysis from our colleagues in Beijing and Hong Kong keeps you up to date.

The biggest UK event this week is the State Opening of Parliament, the first parliamentary session in 14 years that will outline the new Labour government’s legislative agenda. The highlight is removing hereditary peers from the House of Lords, removing 47 Conservative peers and ending one of the biggest anachronisms in British democracy. But there’s plenty more, with 30 other bills vying for the final cut. Our parliamentary team brings you the runners and riders for this opening bill.

Back in the UK, Monday will be a turning point for industrial relations. Amazon Workers at the tech group’s Coventry warehouse are expected to back union recognition following a GMB trade union vote, the company’s first in the UK. Coincidentally, Tuesday and Wednesday are also Prime Day, Amazon’s biggest sales event of the year, so it will be a good and bad week for chief executive Jeff Bezos.

As second-quarter earnings season accelerates, there will be a slew of corporate reports, especially in the U.S. The stakes are high as investors keep a close eye on profit margins, according to Mark Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International. “The U.S. second-quarter earnings season will be pivotal for equity market sentiment for the rest of the year,” he wrote in a note.

There is also good economic news, including the European Central Bank’s interest rate setting decision (expected to remain unchanged but some guidance may be given on the timing of future moves), China’s GDP data, and inflation rates for the UK and Japan. More on these below.

one more . . .

It’s summer in the UK, which means a whole lot of (usually negative) weather-related news. Monday is St Swithun’s Day, which according to folklore will determine how the UK weather will be for the rest of the summer. If it rains, it will rain for 40 more days, but if it’s sunny, it will be sunny for 40 more days. Good luck!

But this is not an immediate concern for me, as I’m heading to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast for a few days on an assignment with FT Travel, which means that next Sunday you’ll be in David Hindley’s capable hands. Reading your priorities and insights is very valuable to me, so you can also shoot me a message at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or if you’re reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Major economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week:

Monday

• The result of the vote was Amazon The GMB trade union has sacked workers at its Coventry warehouse as it tries to force the US-based tech company to become the first to recognise the union in the UK.

• Super Dry Shares to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange

• China: Q2 GDP estimates, June retail sales, June industrial production figures

• EU: May industrial production figures

• Türkiye: Democracy and National Solidarity Day. Financial markets are closed.

• UK: Rightmove Housing Index for July

• result: Black Rock Q2. Goldman Sachs Q2. My Group Yes, Robert Walters Second quarter trading update; TomTom Q2

Tuesday

• Amazon The Prime Day shopping event has begun, offering millions of deals to Prime members in several countries outside the U.S. Created for Prime’s 20th anniversary in 2015, the event has become a regular occurrence that often eclipses Black Friday sales.

• Canada: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for June

• Germany: labor market statistics for Q2

• UK: Kantar grocery market share and price inflation

• United States: June retail sales and July NAHB housing market index

• result: Bank of America Q2. B&M Europe Value Retail First quarter trading update; Bloomsbury Publishing Shareholders’ meetings and trading updates for the financial year; Charles Schwab Q2. Experian First quarter trading update; Morgan Stanley Q2. Okada Yes, PNC Financial Services Group Q2. Rio Tinto Second quarter business review, RM Yes, State Street Q2. UnitedHealth Group Q2. wise First quarter trading situation

Wednesday

• EU: HICP inflation data for June

• UK: CPI, Retail Price Index and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for June. Also, the Land Registry UK House Price Index

• United States: June weekly payrolls, June housing starts and industrial production. Also, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book.

• result: Alcoa Q2. ASML Q2. BHP Operational review, Crown Castle Q2. Equifax Q2. Johnson & Johnson Q2

Thursday

• Australia: June labour market data

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate decision

• Japan: June trade statistics

• UK: July labour market statistics

• result: 3i Group First quarter performance update, ABB Q2. AJ Bell Third quarter trading update; Anglo-American Second quarter production report, Discover Financial Services Q2. Domino’s Pizza Q2. Dunelm Fourth quarter trading update; Frasers FY, Infosys question 1 Kier Group Trade updates, Marsh McLennan Q2. Netflix Q2. Nokia Yes, Novartis Q2. Premier Foods First quarter trading update; Snap-on Q2. Southeast Shareholders Meeting and First Quarter Trading Update; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q2. United Airlines Q2

Friday

• Federal Reserve Board Board Member Michelle Bowman speaks at the “Exploring Traditional Banking Funding in a Non-Traditional World” conference in Dallas, Texas

• EU: Final GDP estimates for Q1

• Germany: Producer Price Index inflation data for June

• Japan: June CPI Inflation Data

• UK: June public sector finances, UK retail sales, GfK consumer confidence survey, insolvency numbers

• United States: June labor market data

• result: American Express Question 2 Burberry First quarter trading update; Comerica Q2. Electrolux Yes, Finnair Yes, Halliburton Question 2 Hargreaves Lansdown Fourth Quarter Transaction Report, Schlumberger Q2. Skanska Q2. Traveler Q2

World Events

Finally, here’s an overview of other events and milestones from this week:

Monday

• China: Third plenary session begins in Beijing, runs until Thursday

• Rwanda: Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

• Syria: Parliamentary Elections

• United States: The Republican National Convention kicked off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and will run until Thursday.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

• FRANCE: Following parliamentary elections this month, the new legislature has opened its doors to the National Assembly. The main candidates for prime minister are:

• United Kingdom: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosted a meeting of around 50 European leaders and the European Political Community, including the presidents of the European Council, European Commission and European Parliament, at Blenheim Palace, just north of Oxford.

Friday

• Myanmar: Martyrs’ Day commemorating the 1947 assassination of Aung San and seven other pre-independence interim government leaders

• UK: The BBC Proms season kicks off. Conductor Elim Chan makes his Proms debut on the First Night of the Year, performing Beethoven’s Symphony No. 5, Handel’s Royal Fireworks Music and Clara Schumann’s Piano Concerto with soloist Isata Kanneh-Mason. The Final Night of the Proms takes place on 14 September.

Saturday

• 55th anniversary of Apollo 11 astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin becoming the first humans to walk on the moon

• France: The International Olympic Committee (IOC) Executive Board is meeting in Paris ahead of the 2024 Olympics opening on July 26. Click here for more details.

Sunday