According to CSDS data, only 10% of voters believe the prime ministerial candidate is the deciding factor in this election.
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File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
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Since Narendra Modi became leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian elections have taken on the appearance of a presidential contest, a shift marked by a prime ministerial candidate taking center stage in the electoral narrative and an appeal to voters primarily in Modi’s own name.
However, the unexpected failure of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure a majority in the 18th Indian Lok Sabha elections marks a major shift in the party’s image in the eyes of voters.
Modi has long been seen as a larger-than-life figure, but in recent times he has sought to transcend the realm of ordinary politics and reach quasi-divine realm.
Modi’s speeches and public utterances have reinforced this perception, portraying him as a messianic leader who could save India from its myriad challenges. When he emerged in 2014, he represented a “chowkidar,” a watchdog and protector of the rights and sovereignty of his people.
By 2019, Modi had shifted to the role of “pradhan sevak,” implying a responsibility to revitalize land and people’s rights and aspirations. In 2024, Modi’s portrayal evolved further, exuding a god-like aura and suggesting a departure from traditional political roles to a more transcendental figure. This portrayal had both strengths and weaknesses in inspiring fervent supporters while alienating those who viewed his approach as autocratic and divisive.
One notable example that highlights the dual nature of Modi’s rhetoric is his Banswara speech, where his words were harsh and confrontational. Such speeches are often criticized for their tone and content, suggesting a combative rather than conciliatory style. While this approach has been effective in mobilizing his base, it has also contributed to a polarized political atmosphere.
The shift in voter preferences over the past decade provides a quantifiable picture of Modi’s fluctuating influence.
According to the Lokniti-CSDS NES 2014 Post-Election Poll, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 28% of voters considered the prime ministerial candidate to be an important factor in deciding who to vote for. By the 2019 elections, this had fallen to 17%, indicating a weakening influence of the prime ministerial candidate on voting decisions.
This trend continues in the 2024 election, with only 10% of voters considering the prime ministerial candidate to be the deciding factor. This decline means that the prime minister’s personality has less influence in shaping the election outcome.
Table 1.1 Voter Preferences Through Elections: Examining Prime Ministerial Candidates Table 1.2 Modi’s voter support
These figures highlight a major shift in the political landscape: In the 2019 election, 47% of voters supported Prime Minister Modi; by 2024, this support had fallen to 41%. The decline signals widespread disillusionment with Modi’s leadership and a growing desire among voters for alternative political narratives and candidates.
Several factors could be contributing to Modi’s declining popularity.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic challenges and controversial policies such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the abrogation of Article 370 have been divisive issues. These actions have solidified support from certain sections of the public but have also sparked significant opposition and protests, further dividing the electorate.
Moreover, the personalization of politics around Modi has meant that the BJP’s successes and failures are often attributed to him alone. This concentration of credit and responsibility can be a double-edged sword: As the initial euphoria about his leadership fades and more practical concerns take over, voters’ patience with grandiose promises and ambitious projects that take time to deliver may wane.
The politics of popular sociology plays a key role in understanding the fluctuations in Modi’s support. Modi’s rise and survival are deeply intertwined with his ability to tap into the collective psyche of significant segments of Indian society. His transformation from a “chowkidar” to a “pradhan sevak” and now a quasi-god-like figure reflects a story that resonates with the aspirations and anxieties of his supporters.
But this personalization has also created a fragile image, one in which perceptions of invincibility are subject to the shifting tides of public opinion.
The BJP’s failure to secure a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections highlights the evolution of Indian politics. Prime Minister Modi’s once unshakable position appears increasingly fragile, reflecting broader changes in voter attitudes and preferences. While his image as a strong and decisive leader remains, the diminished role of the prime ministerial candidate in influencing voting decisions suggests a possible recalibration of political strategies and ideologies in the coming years.
The downfall of Narendra Modi, if it actually happens, would mark a watershed moment in India’s journey towards democracy.
(Nirmanyu Chauhan is a Programme Coordinator at Lokniti CSDS and specialises in Indian politics and development. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor takes responsibility for these.)
