Four days in Asia was all it took for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to anger Washington, undermine Beijing and unsettle Indo-Pacific nations struggling to adapt to a troubled world order.
After visiting Communist-red Pyongyang and Hanoi this week, Putin left behind a new map of dangers in Asia, with North Korea at its center: a rogue nuclear power that constantly threatens its neighbors, suddenly empowered by advanced Russian military aid and the promise of a mutual defense pact.
Putin also signed at least 12 agreements with Vietnam, an increasingly important country for both China and the United States as they compete for influence, and argued that a “closed military and political bloc” could not create a “credible security system”.
The visit was as disruptive as it was challenging, showing that the power struggle between the United States and China, sometimes described as a new Cold War, is not as binary as it seems, and many countries in the region are likely to have ended the week on a note of growing unease.
Putin’s presence and threats, bold at one moment and ambiguous the next, add complexity to already difficult calculations over security and great power competition.
Over the past few years, the Indo-Pacific region has been rocked by a geopolitical jostling between the United States and China, primarily over China’s claims to Taiwan and, increasingly, over China’s military buildup in the South China Sea.
China in May launched two days of intense naval and air force drills around Taiwan that it called a form of “strong punishment” after Taiwan’s new president pledged to defend sovereignty over the self-ruled island, which China considers lost territory.
Another flashpoint, the South China Sea, moved a step closer to conflict this week. After months of violent confrontation in the middle of a turquoise chokepoint for global trade, Chinese and Philippine ships collided on Monday near disputed islands, wounding a Philippine Navy sailor. The Philippines is an ally the United States is treaty obligated to assist in case of war, widening the potential fallout.
Many countries in the region are already strengthening their military forces to cope with Chinese pressure and uncertainty about how long the conflict between the United States and China will last.
These concerns, plus growing unrest in the region over the U.S. presidential election and a new report released this month showing China is in the midst of a “significant” expansion of its nuclear capabilities, have created regular headaches for foreign policy players in the region.
Mr Putin has now triggered several more crises: by welcoming North Korea and openly threatening to arm Kim Jong Un’s military, he has effectively added a new crisis to Asia’s concerns and reignited old hostilities on the Korean peninsula.
Officials in South Korea and Japan, avowed enemies of North Korea, were especially wary. The two countries were already talking about strengthening their defenses and building closer ties with the United States and the United States itself, especially since Kim Jong Un’s rhetoric has grown significantly more hostile toward both countries in recent months.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel described Putin’s increased activity in Asia as “our worst fears coming true.”
“What Russia has now done is told us it intends to become the primary host of a rogue state that will develop nuclear weapons, violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow countries under U.N. sanctions to evade those sanctions,” he said.
Peter Tesch, who served as Australia’s ambassador to Moscow from 2016 to 2019, stressed that Putin likes to keep the world in chaos because he believes it is in Russia’s interest to destabilize other countries. Disinformation and working with other provocateurs has become Putin’s doctrine.
“He’s happy to be Russia’s smelliest, fartiest uncle at the barbecue,” Tesch says. “The signal is, ‘Yes, I’m a disruptor. I can take actions that increase the complexity of what you’re trying to manage.'”
China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and perhaps its greatest influence, will also have to deal with the fallout, which may include pressure to clarify what its “unrestricted” friendship with Russia means for its professed goal of stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Some analysts say Putin had all of this in mind: He may have been trying to strengthen ties with Kim Jong Un, whom he greeted with a hug at the airport, threaten the United States and express frustration with Chinese President Xi Jinping for not doing more to help Russia win in Ukraine.
“If Putin doesn’t get everything he wants from Beijing, he’ll try to get it elsewhere, and there aren’t many supermarkets that fit his wish list of weapons, labor and the will to take on Washington,” said Samuel Green, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London. “Iran is one. North Korea is another.”
“The point is, while Putin recognizes his dependence on China, he cannot allow Beijing to dictate the course of the war, because the outcome of that war will determine Putin’s fate.”
In some ways, Putin’s trip to Asia was a stark reminder of Russia’s historic military ties: North Korea, India and Vietnam are just a few of the nations that have relied heavily on Russian equipment for decades, forging training and maintenance ties that have entrenched Moscow in the region.
But that relationship was weakening even before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. An independent study found that Russian arms sales to Southeast Asia fell from $1.2 billion in 2014 to $89 million in 2021. What Putin is trying to delay is a complete break, or even significant diversification.
And if Putin’s attitude toward North Korea ends up stimulating an arms race in Asia, Moscow also stands to benefit: Not only would sharing Russian weapons with a country like North Korea increase the risk of chaos, but it would also bring badly needed revenue to a Russian economy that has been squeezed by sanctions, war, inflation and 16% interest rates.
Putin’s visit to Hanoi was focused on deals, and while most were kept secret, analysts predicted defense-related deals would likely come to light later, with funding designed to circumvent international sanctions and possibly payment in the form of oil and gas interests in the South China Sea.
“Vietnam hasn’t done a major buildup of its ground forces in many years, but one is coming soon,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. “We may see Vietnam buying new Russian tanks.”
Nguyen The Phuong, who studies Vietnamese military issues at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Vietnam also needs new fighter jets and large warships similar to those China uses to mark its claimed territory in the South China Sea.
He added that major security risks in Asia were putting countries like Vietnam in a bind. “Western weapons are expensive and politically sensitive,” he said.
But will Vietnam use Russia’s new vessels to challenge China over oil reserves that were explored with Moscow’s backing and claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi?
For many countries, Putin’s visit to North Korea has reopened those thorny issues. China has clearly sided with Moscow in the Ukraine war. Putin visited Beijing in May, and while a visit to North Korea may irritate Xi, analysts do not expect a major rift in relations.
If you offend one leader, you risk punishment from the other, or both.
“I think there’s concern about the growing relationship between Russia and China and the possibility that they might attack smaller countries,” Grossman said.
Speaking at a defense conference in Singapore this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that’s already happening. He accused China and Russia of conspiring to sabotage a Ukrainian-led peace summit in Switzerland last week, which was attended by just a few Asian countries.
Motoko Rich He reported from Tokyo.
