- Putin and Kim Jong Un held a major summit early last week and agreed to a mutual defense pact.
- The deal is bad for both the United States and China, one South Korea watcher said.
- Russia’s closeness to North Korea leaves China with few options on how to respond.
The deepening cooperation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is having ripple effects around the world, from the Indo-Pacific region to Ukraine.
Deepening cooperation between the two countries could increase tensions and create problems for the United States and its allies, but it would not necessarily be good for China either, a leading South Korean expert said.
Last week, Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. During a high-profile visit to Pyongyang, the two sides signed an agreement declaring they would come to each other’s aid if the other came under attack.
The mutual defense pact follows an earlier arms deal between Russia and North Korea in which Russia would receive weapons from North Korea to address Ukraine’s ammunition shortages in exchange for North Korea receiving food, petroleum products, and likely more dangerous and advanced capabilities and technology for nuclear submarines, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and other priority programs.
The agreement marked a remarkable turning point, marking the closest ties between Russia and North Korea since the Cold War and opening the door to future cooperation. None of this is good for the United States. The partnership poses a range of challenges, including fueling Putin’s war tactics, giving North Korea an opportunity to circumvent global sanctions, and raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Furthermore, America’s adversaries are drawing closer together in what has been called an “axis of turmoil,” posing direct challenges to the U.S.-led world order.
There is no good option
But US President Joe Biden is not the only one grappling with the issue of this new partnership: Russia’s closeness to North Korea has also put Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a rather strange position.
“This relationship is bad for the U.S. and China alike,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China has long wielded strong influence over North Korea and has made great efforts to maintain ties with the country despite internationally condemned nuclear tests and UN Security Council sanctions.
At times when other countries may be competing for North Korea’s interests, such as summits between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un and Putin, China has carefully sought to reposition itself to maintain its role as North Korea’s closest ally.
But that has changed this year. Cha and his colleagues predicted in early 2024 that the previous summit between Putin and Kim Jong Un in September 2023 and an arms deal to supply Russia with ammunition would put North Korea in a “favorable position” as Russia and China court North Korea and the United States continues to be ignored on the sidelines.
Currently, China is left behind by the budding relationship between Putin and Kim Jong Un and doesn’t really have a good option.
“They may condemn this together with the U.S., but they would never do that, even though this relationship is not in their interest at all,” Cha said.
“They could openly criticise North Korea, but they never will. Or they could cut off industrial aid to Russia to stop it from cooperating with North Korea, but they never will,” he added.
A major problem facing China and the United States is the risk of further tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where neither side wants conflict.
Dangerous Dominoes
As Russia builds closer ties with North Korea, potentially helping it improve its military and weapons production, South Korea faces an increasingly bold and capable neighbor — and Seoul is already threatening to strike back.
After the Putin-Kim summit, South Korea said it would consider reversing its ban on direct lethal aid to Ukraine. And so the dominoes began to fall.
South Korea has been circumventing the restrictions and supplying Ukraine with needed ammunition via the United States, but this threat has led to escalation.
Putin warned South Korea against directly supporting Ukraine, suggesting that if it went all-out, Russia could funnel more military aid to North Korea and increase tensions on the Korean peninsula. “I believe that the countries that are supplying these weapons are not at war with us,” Putin told reporters, adding that “we reserve the right to supply weapons to other parts of the world, including Pyongyang.”
Cha explained that Russia has some leverage in this situation and could respond by helping North Korea improve its stockpiles and produce better weapons, as well as providing high-end technology for nuclear submarines and better military satellites.
Such retaliatory measures by Russia could prompt South Korea to think more seriously about its nuclear weapons programs, which have long been discussed but have typically been thwarted by strong U.S. commitments to defending South Korea.
South Korea agreed last year not to pursue its own nuclear weapons program, which North Korea has developed in a series of illegal tests, and instead deployed U.S. nuclear submarines to the region.
Rising Anxiety
The Putin-Kim alliance is also likely to bring China under increasing pressure from the U.S.-led coalition. Cha explained that a Russia-North Korea security pact would “ensure an even closer military alliance between the U.S., Japan and South Korea,” making the Indo-Pacific region a hotbed of joint military exercises, demonstrations and an expanded U.S. presence.
China has long opposed such alliances and criticized U.S. activities in internationally open waters. In recent years, Washington has strengthened ties with Japan and South Korea in direct response to growing concerns about Chinese aggression, frustrating Beijing.
Now, as the US and its allies keep a closer eye on North Korea and Russia, that trend is only set to intensify. But for now, China is keeping its thinking on the issue secret.
“Cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a matter between two sovereign states,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Li Jian said last week, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“We do not have any information on the relevant matters,” he said.
There may be more going on behind the scenes, as Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell suggested at a think tank event earlier this week.
“It’s fair to say that China is somewhat uneasy about what’s going on between Russia and North Korea,” he said at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. “They’ve signaled that in their interactions with us, and we see tensions related to that.”
“China may be concerned that this could encourage North Korea to act provocatively in some way, leading to a crisis in northeast Asia,” Campbell said.
