Rahim Yar Khan braces for highest flood wave in Indus since 2010

A massive flood wave of up to 1.2 million cusecs is expected to pass through the Indus River near Rahim Yar Khan within the next 36 hours, in what officials warn will be the largest surge since the catastrophic 2010 floods.

Rahim Yar Khan DC Khurram Pervaiz said a flood emergency has been enforced in the district, while Section 144 has been imposed to ensure residents evacuate vulnerable riverine areas.

District authorities warn that around 95 settlements could be hit — 44 completely and 51 partially — putting an estimated 325,000 people and over 557,000 livestock at risk.

“All assistant commissioners and police officials have been instructed to facilitate evacuations from the affected zones,” Pervaiz said.

In Multan, similar flood threats loom in the Chenab and Sutlej rivers. Multan District administration has accelerated evacuations, with DC Waseem Hamid Sindhu visiting Band Boon and Shershah flood embankments along with senior officials including CPO Sadiq Ali Dogar and AC Saddar Zahid Iqbal.

Sindhu said major torrents are expected in the Chenab within two days, stressing that evacuations are being carried out under Punjab government directives. Flood relief camps have been set up and equipped with essential facilities, while police have been tasked with assisting in the relocation process and securing the camps.

CPO Dogar confirmed that a comprehensive security plan has been put in place to protect citizens’ lives and property during the emergency.

Moreover, flooding in the Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers has devastated nearly 1,400 villages across Punjab, displacing more than 1.2 million people.

Along the Chenab, 991 villages and 769,281 people have been impacted, while Ravi River’s bank burst has affected 80 villages and 74,775 residents, and the Sutlej has inundated 361 villages, displacing 392,768 people.

Along with human evacuations, more than 148,000 livestock have been relocated to safer areas, with 234 animal treatment camps set up to provide medical support. More than 210,000 people have been moved to safer locations, including 25,000 accommodated in rescuse camps, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) as of Thursday.

The Chenab and Jhelum rivers have risen to extremely high and very high flood levels respectively, inundating vulnerable districts, said Provincial Disaster Management Authority’s (PDMA) Lahore Flood Forecasting Division (FFD).

The Chenab River is experiencing extremely high flood levels at Head Khanki, Qadirabad and downstream Marala.

At Khanki, the river is in an extremely high flood situation with flows reaching 859,000 cusecs. Similarly, at Head Qadirabad, the discharge has surged to 996,000 cusecs—nearly 200,000 cusecs above its design capacity, also categorised as an extremely high flood level.

Understanding flood levels

According to FFD, flood levels are categorized in five stages:

A “low flood level” is where river flows are just above normal and generally contained within the banks.
A “medium flood” indicates a stronger rise in water, posing risks to low-lying villages and crops near riverbanks.
When a “high flood” is declared, the situation becomes dangerous as water may overflow or put severe pressure on embankments.
Whereas, a “very high flood signals” a critical stage where large-scale inundation is expected.
The most severe category is an extremely high flood, where river discharges exceed the safe design limits of barrages and embankments.

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Chenab River

Due to the Chenab River swelling, more than 50 villages in Sambrial have been submerged, while the death toll from drowning has risen to at least eight. The extremely high flood wave in the river is expected to reach Muzaffargarh by Friday. Residents are increasingly worried due to the poor condition of protective embankments, with cracks reported at Rangpur, Muradabad, Bhattianwali Basti, Thatta Sialan, and Sankhi.

Ravi River

Moroever, water flow in the Ravi River continues to rise, reaching 189,000 cusecs at Shahdara and is expected to hit 200,000 cusecs in the coming hours. Floodwaters have risen above the riverbanks, spilling into nearby settlements around Shahdara. Mosques in the area have been announcing evacuation calls as water levels rise. The district administration has cleared 22 villages across five tehsils of Lahore.

According to Punjab PDMA DG Irfan Ali Kathia, at Jassar, Ravi River has reached extremely high flood levels with flows at 139,000 cusecs, Express News reported. At Balloki Headworks, flows are at 93,000 cusecs, marking a medium-level flood.

In Shakargarh District, hundreds of acres of farmland have been submerged, dozens of houses have collapsed, and at least three people have lost their lives.

At Ganda Singh Wala, the Sutlej River is experiencing an extremely high and dangerous flood with water flows recorded at 261,000 cusecs. At Head Sulemanki, flows have reached 109,000 cusecs, causing a medium-level flood.

Read more: Gates donates $1m for Pakistan floods

In Vehari, the protective embankments at Lakha Sildira and Jatiera have collapsed, allowing floodwaters to enter Lakha Sildira and Jatiera villages while cutting off road access to more than 40 settlement.

District authorities said over 50,000 people have been affected in Vehari alone, with more than 12,000 shifted to safer locations and tent settlements established in Farooqabad, Sahuka and Rakh Jamlera.

In Bahawalnagar, several temporary protective dykes have also collapsed due to the strong current of floodwaters.

Meanwhile, the Indus River remains relatively calm in Punjab, with low flood levels reported in Rajanpur, though officials warn a high flood wave is expected to reach Kot Mithan within three to four days. Police and district administration have begun relocating residents from katcha areas, with relief camps established and rescue teams deployed. In Sindh, the Indus at Taunsa, Guddu, Sukkur, Kotri and Islam headworks remains at low flood levels.

According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) latest alert issued today, the next 12 to 48 hours remain critical, with forecasts of further heavy rainfall in Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Murree, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

PM stresses the need to enhance water storage capacity

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for collective efforts to address the recurring challenge of natural disasters, particularly floods, in the coming years.

Chairing a briefing in Narowal on the devastation caused by recent floods, the PM has stressed the need to enhance water storage capacity to mitigate flash floods. He stated that Diamer Bhasha and Mohmand dams can serve as key projects, adding that water reservoirs could also be developed in Chiniot.

PM Shehbaz said both federal and provincial governments have the capacity to generate resources and find solutions to the crisis. He emphasized that along with the National and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities, all allied departments must demonstrate preparedness to tackle natural calamities.

Expressing grief over the loss of lives and property, the PM lauded the armed forces for working closely with the civil administration in rescue and relief operations.

Chairman NDMA Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik briefed the meeting on the scale of damage, noting that this year’s monsoon had been more intense and prolonged than in previous years, with high floodwaters recorded in the Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers.

Earlier today, PM Shehbaz arrived in Lahore, where Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz welcomed him.

CM Maryam visits flood-hit areas

Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz inspected the flood situation at Shahdara while traveling by boat, where officials briefed her on the latest development.

Speaking on the occasion, she said that Punjab was facing a flood emergency following “unprecedented rains and India’s release of water after its dams filled up.”

She commended the efforts of the administration, noting that commissioners, deputy commissioners, rescue teams, and the health department had worked tirelessly.

“Had there been no preparedness, the damage would have been far greater. Such a flood has occurred after 38 years. Every life is precious, and people have been moved to safe locations,” she added.

“By the grace of Allah, we were saved from massive destruction, though I deeply regret the losses that have still occurred”.

Public advisory

Punjab PDMA Relief Commissioner Nabeel Javed has directed commissioners and deputy commissioners to remain present in the field, stressing that PDMA is ensuring continuous coordination across the province.

He stated that evacuations from flood-affected areas must be carried out as quickly as possible, as protecting lives and property remains the top priority and responsibility. All relevant rescue and relief institutions have been placed on high alert.