- Many warning signs indicate that China is preparing military action against Taiwan.
- Experts say China may be preparing for a decisive battle over the island.
- U.S. involvement and Chinese leader Xi’s goals are also factored into the schedule.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a boiling point, and there are numerous signs pointing to military action by China to seize Taiwan by force, perhaps within the next few years.
While a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an incredibly complex and dangerous operation, influential China watchers have warned that the preparations that would almost certainly be needed to seize the island include China’s naval power, energy and food supply. is sounding the alarm over the stockpiling and large-scale build-up of military forces. Military training is taking place just off the coast.
“I don’t think they’re missing anything,” Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, said of the Chinese military. “You can always ask the question, ‘Couldn’t they be more ready?’ I think there are some specific areas, but I think for a long time they don’t need to be ready to run a campaign.” He claimed to have something.”
What is needed for China’s all-out attack
China has promoted rapid modernization of its military over the past two decades That alarmed U.S. military officials and widened Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s options on how to unify Taiwan, a democratic island of 24 million people that Beijing sees as secession. For example, the Chinese Navy exceeds the size of the US fleet and its shipbuilding capacity is easily the largest in the world.
However, despite their vast numbers, there are questions about the quality of China’s warships and whether they are capable of conducting amphibious attacks against Taiwan’s advanced weapons.
In 2021, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense assessed that China “lack the landing vehicles and logistics necessary for an invasion of Taiwan.” The U.S. Department of Defense largely agrees, and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission wrote similarly in its 2020 report, stating that China “doesn’t have enough amphibious lifts or ships or aircraft capable of transporting troops.” “There is,” he pointed out. [Chinese military] “We need to successfully take control of the island,” he said, and the People’s Liberation Army was considering using civilian ships to supplement that effort.
Chinese ships and aircraft attempting to invade or blockade the island into submission would be highly vulnerable to Taiwan’s advanced weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, Patriot missile batteries, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. right. The question is whether China has built an invasion force that can withstand the damage caused by these weapons in its first amphibious invasion in 70 years.
Others are seeing signs that China is corralling the civilian transport vessels needed to meet the massive material needs of the invasion amphibious fleet.
Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine commander and currently a part-time senior fellow at the think tank Center for a New American Security, wrote in August 2021 for Reef War that “Chinese leaders are “We have already begun organizing civilian vessels into naval auxiliary units.” “military” and highlighted examples of large roll-on/roll-off ferries used in amphibious assault exercises, which Chinese media later confirmed, saying the civilian vessels were transporting both marines and ground troops. added.
Although these ferries are not necessarily designed to land assault troops, Shugart said they carry large numbers of people, quickly load ground troops with little warning, disembark troops, and then return. He said it was designed to come. The U.S. military also has fast transport ships and cargo ships to support operations.
“The evidence shows that all of these fleets are really ready to go at a moment’s notice,” Goldstein said. “China has the largest port in the world and it’s full of these ships, so getting them together into a fleet to do this attack would be very quick, within days.”
Mr. Xi is a year and a half into his third term as China’s leader, but many of his recent moves suggest that China is preparing for war. Mr. Xi succeeded in tightening his grip on Hong Kong in 2020 and may have his eyes on a bigger prize.
In March, China dropped “peaceful reunification” when referring to Taiwan and announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending. Food and energy security, like oil reserves, have been stockpiled for years. The new law on civilian mobilization and economic independence shows that Xi Jinping is preparing his people and China’s economy for the possibility of war. Troops are being deployed closer to Taiwan than ever before, effectively shortening Taiwan’s reaction time. China’s stockpile of rocket forces also suggests it has enough missiles and rockets to target Taiwan.
Earlier this month, Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and director of intelligence for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, wrote in Reef War: However, key strategic indicators clearly indicate that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still gearing up for a showdown with his country, and ongoing developments suggest that Taiwan will most likely return to normal in the late or early 2020s. This suggests that Japan will face an existential crisis within an order of magnitude. 2030s. ”
Some experts assess that China will lean toward the element of surprise, which is a core part of its military doctrine. One common concern is that as China’s military exercises around Taiwan increase in frequency and scale, the lines between exercises and potential attacks are becoming blurred. Dean Chen, senior adviser for the China Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said the “bad news” in such a scenario is that “they’re going to start a war with what they have, because they probably don’t have one.” It’s because of this.” This is your chance to deploy more troops to the front, stockpile ammunition, and get everything loaded and ready. How important is a surprise attack, and how important is being able to continue operations? ”
The maneuver is similar to Russia’s massive military buildup on Ukraine’s border ahead of a 2022 invasion that officials said was for a field exercise.
In Goldstein’s estimation, while there is still a risk, “they have what it takes and are ready to launch an attack.” “I don’t think there will be much warning,” he added, noting that a sudden series of actions that unfold over only a few hours is more likely than many other clear, long-term signs. .
The involvement of the United States is also taken into account. “There is a possibility that the United States will intervene, but in that case, the question will be to what extent China can hide its preparations for invasion,” Chen said.
chinese steel ring
Experts, as well as U.S. and Taiwanese lawmakers and military officials, have long debated the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army, known as China’s military.
“The People’s Liberation Army’s modernization plan is still on track and targeted for 2027,” Chen explained, with the goal of becoming a fully modernized combat force by then.
Until then, there is a high risk that any attack attempt will fail or crush the Chinese military. “However, the People’s Liberation Army is not going to make a decision on whether to invade Taiwan. That is up to the Chinese leadership, especially Mr. Xi Jinping and the rest of the Politburo Standing Committee members,” said Zheng, a top Chinese Communist Party official. said. He said.
Although China has indicated its intention to use force if necessary, a full-scale invasion would likely have dire consequences for China. As noted in the Pentagon’s China report, other actions may be preferable, such as an air and sea blockade, limited military operations, air and missile operations, and occupation of small occupied islands in Taiwan. China is already exercising many of these capabilities.
For example, blockade, It would give the United States and its allies more time than a sudden, out-of-the-blue attack. “The risk is low in the sense that it won’t necessarily kill thousands of people, but it will give Taiwan and the United States time to organize a response,” Chen said.
There are precedents. In 1962, the United States blockaded Cuba after detecting the Soviet Union’s deployment of nuclear missiles to Cuba, the most dangerous crisis in the history of the Cold War.
The United States’ involvement in defending Taiwan from China is less well known. A wargame analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in January 2023 found that in most of the 24 operations, the United States, Taiwan, and Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China, but suffered heavy losses. It is reported that.
However, given all this, the idea has emerged that Mr. Xi’s biggest priority is unification with Taiwan. As U.S. Army Maj. Kyle Amonson and retired U.S. Coast Guard Col. Dane Egli wrote in 2023, Xi’s decision to invade Taiwan was largely based on the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese society, and even China. It comes down to how you want to maintain your legacy in society. What would achieving such a feat mean to him?
confrontation scene
Cross-strait relations have deteriorated in recent years, especially with the Democratic Progressive Party in power since 2016, and military action toward unification is likely, with other options such as diplomacy unlikely. There are growing concerns about The worst-case scenario is a full-scale invasion, which could lead to an all-out war and a response from the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and others.
In the late 2000s and early 2010s, Beijing’s economy was booming, Taiwanese students were traveling to the mainland for studies, and Chinese leaders believed that Taiwan would eventually accept reunification. Probability is high.
“However, given other factors such as the economic and social situation, China’s crackdown on Hong Kong, and the actions of the United States, Beijing has come to believe that time is no longer on its side,” Chen said. “Tensions are definitely rising right now, but I want to draw the line that that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Chinese government is going to launch an invasion.”
Goldstein said he has been closely tracking Chinese media and has seen calls for unification become more frequent and heated. “I’m concerned that China is finding some reason to act sooner rather than later,” he said.
Mr. Xi himself told US President Joe Biden in late 2023 that “peace… is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward a solution.”
