India’s AI militarization has a tremendous impact on Pakistan, primarily in terms of security. On the conventional side, AI-powered systems can significantly improve the efficiency of logistics systems by reducing costs, making the Indian Army more practical and efficient. AI systems will enhance India’s cyber warfare capabilities, including defensive capabilities (secure communication links, protected military assets) and offensive capabilities (ability to attack enemy military assets). Furthermore, intelligent unmanned systems with the capability to provide incremental static regeneration (ISR) can serve two purposes. First, when used to analyze and interpret data, it can facilitate identification of potential targets. Second, it can significantly reduce the threat to military personnel patrolling in conflict areas.
The strategic environment in South Asia is already unstable, and India’s increasing use of AI for military purposes undermines strategic stability in the region and weakens the deterrence policy between India and Pakistan. The New Strategic Arms Treaty (NSAT) defines strategic stability as crisis stability (no incentive to launch a first strike) and arms race stability (no incentive to expand nuclear capabilities). AI-enabled ISR capabilities would allow a nation to detect, track, and target enemy military assets over a broad range, increasing the likelihood of attacks on strategic assets. A first strike capability enhanced by AI military technology, coupled with the perception that it has such a capability, could disrupt crisis stability.
“Technology through automation and artificial intelligence is arguably one of the most disruptive sources.” (Alan Dehaz).
Modern-day breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) are constantly changing the strategic landscape and dynamics of warfare. India is looking to incorporate AI into its combat systems to reap its enormous potential benefits, including increased accuracy, improved decision-making, and enhanced situational awareness. India is aggressively integrating this crucial technology into its defense sector, posing serious security implications for Pakistan.
Investing in AI
In March 2018, the Indian Ministry of Defence Production formed a multi-stakeholder task force, the Task Force on Strategic Implementation of AI for National Security and Defence, to study a wide range of issues regarding the strategic impact of AI. One of the notable recommendations of this task force was to combine India’s defence strategy with an AI defence strategy. Based on the suggestions of the aforementioned task force, India also established the Defence Artificial Intelligence Council (DAIC) and the Defence AI Projects Agency (DAIPA). The DAIC is mandated to provide strategic direction on the incorporation of AI defence technologies and industry-government collaboration. With regards to DAIPA, the country has allocated $13.2 million (equivalent to INR 1000 crore) to the agency for the implementation of AI-based processes in the armed forces. DAIPA is expected to undertake 30 maritime AI projects in 2022 as well as produce 25 AI defence products by 2024.
Another key institute nurturing AI research and development in India is the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR). CAIR aims to further advance AI, communications and information security, command and control, and robotics. The centre has been credited with testing various drones such as Daksh, a remotely operated unmanned ground vehicle used for explosive defusal, Robosen and Sentry Bot for threat localisation, and Ballbots for short-range visual reconnaissance. Additionally, CAIR has developed and tested the Rustom series of unmanned aerial vehicles for surveillance and reconnaissance. CAIR is also working on developing a Multi-Agent Robot Framework (MARF) to perform mapping, exploration, search and rescue, and most importantly, surveillance missions.
From a doctrinal perspective, the 2017 Joint Indian Army Doctrine (JDIAF) has had a major impact on India and its mission of implementing new technologies by shifting the military’s approach towards AI to a tri-service integrated framework. Overall, the doctrine emphasizes maintaining a balance between old and new technologies as defense-related technologies not only serve as strategic resources but also as force multipliers. India’s 2018 Land Warfare Doctrine reflects this by emphasizing the need to modernize the Indian Army to ensure combat readiness in a technology-centric environment that has become characterized by the emergence of revolutionary military technologies such as AI and drones.
The integration of AI in the Indian military is evident from its adoption in intrusion detection systems, unmanned mine detection vehicles, remote weapon stations, language translation systems, and facial recognition. Additionally, the Indian military has deployed 140 AI-powered smart surveillance systems on its borders with China and Pakistan, which include radar and UAV feeds, sensors, and high-resolution cameras, reducing the need for manual surveillance. The technological imperatives driven by intelligent warfare have also forced the Indian Navy to strengthen its warfighting capabilities. The Indian Navy Indigenization Plan 2015-2030 reflects this by supporting the modernization of military assets with high-end technologies, signaling India’s intention to leverage AI to enhance its naval might. Additionally, the Indian Navy has developed an AI Core Group with the aim of supporting capacity building and training naval officers, sailors, and crew in Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Further, the Indian Navy plans to incorporate various AI capabilities in modelling and simulation (M&S), augmented intelligence, propulsion and power systems, logistics, sensor technology and oceanography.
Interestingly, the Indian Air Force entered the AI race much before the Army and Navy and established an AI Centre of Excellence on July 10, 2022. The aim of this centre is to blend AI with air combat capabilities. The Indian Army has been leveraging advances in military technology in the area of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). As a result, the time taken to collect information and data and identify assets has significantly reduced. In the future, India aims to speed up weapon and target mapping.
However, Pakistan has lacked AI investment, especially in the military sector, and is lagging behind India. However, Pakistan launched the Presidential Initiative for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (PIAIC) in 2018, which aims to integrate AI in business, research, and education. On the military side, the Pakistan Air Force is leading the AI development with the launch of the Center for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC) in 2020, which focuses on promoting predictive analytics, machine learning, big data, NPL (natural language processor), and deep learning. In addition, it will promote the development of drones capable of long flight times and 5.Number A next-generation fighter jet is being developed under the Indian Air Force’s Project Azm. In April 2023, a National Task Force on AI was established to chart out a 10-year roadmap for incorporating AI in healthcare, development, education, governance and business.
Security Implications
India’s AI militarization has a tremendous impact on Pakistan, primarily in terms of security. On the conventional side, AI-powered systems can significantly improve the efficiency of logistics systems by reducing costs, making the Indian Army more practical and efficient. AI systems will enhance India’s cyber warfare capabilities, including defensive capabilities (secure communication links, protected military assets) and offensive capabilities (ability to attack enemy military assets). Furthermore, intelligent unmanned systems with the capability to provide incremental static regeneration (ISR) can serve two purposes. First, when used to analyze and interpret data, it can facilitate identification of potential targets. Second, it can significantly reduce the threat to military personnel patrolling in conflict areas.
The strategic environment in South Asia is already unstable, and India’s increasing use of AI for military purposes undermines strategic stability in the region and weakens deterrence policies between India and Pakistan. The New Strategic Arms Treaty (NSAT) defines strategic stability as crisis stability (no incentive to launch a first strike) and arms race stability (no incentive to expand nuclear capabilities). AI-enabled ISR capabilities would allow a nation to detect, track, and target enemy military assets over a broad range, increasing the likelihood of attacks on strategic assets. A first strike capability enhanced by AI military technology, coupled with the perception that it has such capabilities, could disrupt crisis stability.
This may give India the confidence to successfully launch an overwhelming counterattack against Pakistan. The perception of deterrence would be further complicated if India were to use offensive counterattack capabilities in conjunction with its ballistic missile defense systems (India’s Advanced Air Defense (AAD) and Prithvi Air Defense (PAD)) in the event of a possible second strike by Pakistan. AI-enabled precise targeting capabilities and rapid data processing could significantly increase the likelihood of hasty decisions based on limited information that may lead to misinterpretation, thus increasing the likelihood of escalation in the event of a crisis. Moreover, such technological advances could potentially reduce mutual vulnerabilities between the two countries, which are essential for maintaining strategic stability.
Pakistan’s response
With regard to the stability of the arms race, the military asymmetry between India and Pakistan resulting from growing AI-backed counterforces has ripple effects for Pakistan. Pakistan now feels compelled to invest in similar AI military applications to balance power with India, thereby generally exacerbating the AI-driven arms race between the two adversaries in particular. Given India’s relentless pursuit of AI-based warfighting capabilities, Pakistan will also explore institutional mechanisms to assimilate AI technologies in the military domain. This entails the establishment of a Pakistani “Strategic AI Council” that can provide strategic direction for the development of AI weapons. Under the auspices of this proposed council, new and existing AI-related institutions can indigenously develop or procure AI defense equipment. Moreover, the integration of AI at the tri-service level would be a significant step in strengthening the country’s military capabilities. Overall, it would curb the growing AI-related military gap between India and Pakistan while simultaneously enhancing Pakistan’s combat readiness for the possibility of an AI-driven war.
