In the struggle for international tone, China has sought to portray itself as a peaceful nation that opposes dividing the world into opposing camps. In contrast, China has accused the United States of building alliances that are leading the world into a new Cold War.
But the mutual defense treaty between Russia and North Korea, which provides for the two countries to provide each other with military assistance in the event of war, is precisely the kind of bloc China has imposed on the U.S. Russia and North Korea, China’s closest strategic partners and only treaty allies, now increase the risk of a Cold War-style conflict in Northeast Asia.
The deal also represents a further headache for Beijing, as it reinforces the appearance of a China-Russia-North Korea trilateral axis that China has sought to avoid. “Beijing has been very careful to avoid the impression of a China-Russia-North Korea axis,” says Yun Sang, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “They want to keep their options open.”
Japan, South Korea and the United States may decide they need to strengthen their own security posture, announced at Camp David last year, by building up forces and strengthening defenses in the region around China to meet the threat posed by a defense pact with Russia and North Korea.
For these reasons, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, may not be so welcoming of the budding friendship between Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who met in Pyongyang on Wednesday, hailed the defense pact as the start of a new era in relations between the two countries.
Analysts said the agreement also revealed the limits of cooperation between the two countries and China.
Xi has declared an “unrestricted” relationship with Putin, pledged “unwavering” support for North Korea and joined forces with two like-minded autocracies to counter what the world sees as U.S. bullying.
But by aligning himself with two pariah nations, Xi also risks facing fallout from the actions of an unpredictable leader. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has severely damaged China’s relations with the West, which has accused China of not doing enough to rein in Russia. And Kim’s nuclear threats have helped draw two tense neighbors, Japan and South Korea, into a trilateral defense partnership with the United States.
There are already fears that Russia may provide North Korea with technology to strengthen its nuclear weapons program in exchange for weapons for use in Ukraine.
With China’s struggling economy in dire straits, Mr Xi cannot afford any more surprises, and despite his increasingly antagonistic stance toward the West, he remains focused on preserving China’s place in the current global economic order.
“Putin and Kim Jong Un’s new pact is not good news for Beijing,” said John Delury, a professor of China studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “Xi Jinping has never had good relations with the headstrong Korean dynasty, and there is increasing reason to worry that Putin will encourage Kim Jong Un’s more aggressive tendencies.”
Between the war in Ukraine and the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, “Putin and Kim Jong Un have become destabilizing forces at a time when China benefits from an orderly environment,” Delury said.
China has sought to distance itself from the new agreement, with a foreign ministry spokesman declining to comment on Thursday, saying it was a matter between Russia and North Korea.
In reality, the Russia-North Korea treaty, coupled with the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea, has “significantly exacerbated” the risks of “confrontation, competition and conflict” in the region, said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
Shi said peace on the Korean peninsula was a top priority for China and that increasing militarization in the region jeopardized one of China’s “vital interests.”
China still has significant influence over Russia and North Korea. The United States argues that Moscow could not continue its war in Ukraine without China buying Russian oil in large quantities and supplying Russia with consumer goods and dual-use technologies, such as chips and machine tools, that fuel the Russian war machine. Meanwhile, North Korea relies on China for almost all of its trade, including food and energy.
Its influence over Russia and Pyongyang has made Beijing important at a time when other countries have urged China to use its influence to curb North Korea’s nuclear program and Russia’s war in Ukraine, but have not succeeded.
But Putin’s courting of Kim gives Beijing a new competitor for influence over North Korea, creating “a windfall for Kim and a headache for Xi Jinping,” said Danny Russell, a foreign affairs and security analyst at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“What matters to North Korea is that its cooperation with Putin, while not without limitations, gives it valuable leverage vis-à-vis Beijing,” Russell said. “Playing great powers against one another is a classic tactic in Korean history, and North Korea’s heavy reliance on China over recent decades is a liability that Kim Jong Un is eager to reduce.”
“The scorecard shows that North Korea stands to gain by far the most, and China stands to lose the most,” he added.
Keeping the Kim regime in power is a top priority for Beijing, in order to maintain a buffer zone between China’s border and the U.S.-led forces stationed in South Korea.
Although China and North Korea officially claim to be as close as “lips and teeth,” relations between the two neighbors have long been tense, a mixture of mutual distrust and shared interests.
Kim has unnerved China by conducting a sharp increase in missile tests and expanding his nuclear weapons program since coming to power in 2011. Xi initially refused to meet with Kim. Only after President Trump announced plans to meet with the North Korean dictator did Xi change tack, eventually meeting with Kim before and after a summit with Trump in 2018.
Xi may now feel compelled to meet with Kim again, said Victor D. Cha, a professor of government and international studies at Georgetown University and director of Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “He can’t afford to flex his muscle over the influence that Putin has over his neighbors.”
Growing ties between Russia and North Korea could give China more incentive to repair and stabilize its relations with South Korea.
On the same day that Putin and Kim Jong Un met in Pyongyang, Chinese diplomats and military officials met with their South Korean counterparts in Seoul. China wants to sow rifts between the United States and South Korea and weaken military ties with the United States.
Chinese state media reported on Wednesday that during the meeting, Beijing said its priority on the Korean peninsula was to reduce tensions and avoid any moves that could escalate the conflict, but his language was vague enough to be interpreted as a criticism of the North Korean deal with the United States or Russia. Despite being allied with North Korea, Beijing has sought to remain neutral in the conflict and “has always taken a position based on the merits of the issue itself,” he said.
Olivia Wang He reported from Hong Kong.
