Russia Tests: Will Pakistan Attend Ukraine Peace Summit? | Russia-Ukraine War News

Islamabad, Pakistan – Days before Switzerland is to host a global summit aimed at finding a path towards peace in Ukraine, Pakistan finds itself in a dilemma: should Pakistan take part?

Pakistan has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and many analysts believe the country of 236 million people has too many interests, from Ukrainian arms to Russian oil, to afford to miss the meeting. But others warn that Pakistan’s decision may be partly influenced by China’s move to boycott the summit, which Russia will also not attend. China is perhaps Pakistan’s most important strategic partner today.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed last month that it had received an invitation from Swiss authorities to attend a two-day summit in Lucerne starting June 15, but has not yet decided whether it will attend. “Discussions are still on,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Barosh told Al Jazeera via WhatsApp on Thursday.

More than 160 countries have been invited to the summit, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Switzerland to host. At least 90 have confirmed their intention to attend. However, Moscow and Beijing will not be taking part in the meeting.

Tugral Yamin, a former military officer and senior fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, Islamabad (IPSI), said it was important for Pakistan to be on board.

“Pakistan has to be at the summit. Pakistan has a stake in the war. We have a strong defence relationship with Ukraine but we are also trying to build a strong relationship with Russia which supplies us with oil. So it makes perfect sense for us to be at this meeting,” he told Al Jazeera.

Fahad Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, agreed, noting that Pakistan has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict while advocating for an end to the war.

“Of course, there is a strong desire not to be seen as siding with any particular party,” he said. “But because this is a peace summit, it is also an opportunity for Pakistan to speak out on important regional issues and to show that its participation does not equate to taking sides in the conflict,” Humayun told Al Jazeera.

“This will show that we are not choosing sides but working together to de-escalate global conflicts. This can be communicated tactfully in advance to all stakeholders,” he added.

Pakistan’s Tightrope Walk with Russia and Ukraine

Pakistan has had strong ties with Ukraine in the three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Pakistan has purchased several expensive Ukrainian weapons systems, including tanks. Ukraine had supplied Pakistan with approximately $1.6 billion worth of weapons by 2020, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

But in recent years, Pakistan has also strengthened ties with Russia, a country it traditionally kept at arm’s length during the Cold War, when Islamabad was more closely aligned with the West.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who visited Russia on the day the war broke out in February 2022, later suggested he was ousted from power by a US conspiracy because he was seeking to strengthen ties with Russia. The US denies these allegations.

After the war began, there were reports that Pakistan supplied artillery shells to Ukraine despite remaining neutral, and a report by the US publication The Intercept last year alleged that the US supported an International Monetary Fund bailout package for Pakistan in exchange for arms supplies to Ukraine.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied these allegations, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba supported Pakistan’s neutrality during a visit to Islamabad in July last year.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s leaders have maintained active diplomatic relations since Khan was removed from his post as prime minister. Current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with President Vladimir Putin twice in a two-month span in late 2022, a few months after Khan’s visit to Moscow.

Pakistan also signed an oil trading deal with Russia in April 2023 and received its first shipment two months later, at a time when Western countries were pressuring countries to stop buying Russian crude.

Taima Khan, a research fellow at the Islamabad Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI) who specializes in relations with Russia, said Pakistan has an opportunity to benefit from Moscow’s pivot to Asia at a time when relations between Pakistan and the West are at their worst since the end of the Cold War.

However, Khan said he was skeptical of the outcome of the summit because Russia was absent. “The summit is premised on a peace plan put forward by President Zelensky, which Russia has completely rejected, and both sides in the conflict are [Russia and Ukraine] “There is no real interest in any peace talks as the battlefield situation is unstable and fluid,” he added.

The Swiss government is ready to invite Russia to the summit but has not yet done so, and Russia has openly rejected the idea, calling it “absurd” and “a dull pastime”.

But analysts say there is another factor complicating Pakistan’s decision on whether to attend the Swiss summit: China.

Will Pakistan do what China won’t?

On May 31, China announced that it would not attend the summit in Switzerland.

“China has always maintained that the international peace conference should be recognized by both Russia and Ukraine, with all parties participating equally and all peace proposals being discussed fairly and equally. Otherwise, it will be difficult to play a substantial role in restoring peace,” said Mao Ning, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry.

ISSI scholar Khan said China’s position should not dictate Pakistan’s.

“If China has decided not to attend the summit for its own reasons, it does not mean that Pakistan should follow suit just because it does not serve its interests,” he said.

Humayun, the Tufts University scholar, said that even if Pakistan ultimately chooses not to attend the summit, the decision should not affect its relations with Western countries.

“If Pakistan chooses not to attend, it should not in principle affect its relations with the European Union or the US. They should understand that countries in the global south (including India) have overcome their own set of obligations and have the prerogatives of being sovereign nations,” he said.

ISSI analyst Khan said even if Pakistan does not attend the Lucerne conference, the decision is unlikely to have any economic impact at a time when the United States needs assistance from the influential International Monetary Fund.

“There is no doubt that Pakistan badly needs economic assistance from its partners and allies and from the IMF. But if Pakistan chooses not to participate, I don’t think that will have a significant economic impact on Pakistan,” he said.